Archive for Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers and Catchers Report: American League
Posted by: | CommentsI hear there was some snow over there in the rest of the country these past few weeks. Hard to know, given where I live.
Sorry, had to get that brag in there.
With most of the country dealing with massive snowstorms this winter, the sight of pitchers and catchers reporting today is a welcome harbinger of warmer days to come, and the daily routine of games that many baseball fans live for. For those of you still thawing out and stacking layers of clothes on before leaving the house, here’s a rundown of some of the most interesting stories on the horizon for the American League in 2010 to warm you up.
The Yankees as the Big Bad Juggernaut
Around this time last year, expectations were certainly high for the Yankees (as is always the case). They had just committed $423,500,000 to three players (Sabathia, Teixeira and Burnett), but we had seen this song and dance from the Yanks many times before in the decade. Spending lots of money on veteran players was nothing new for them, and similar past investments (Giambi, Pavano, Johnson, Brown, etc.) didn’t get them a World Series championship. So while expectations were higher given the quality of talent they obtained in their latest shopping spree, fans weren’t about to make assumptions.
This year, make no mistake about it: the Yankees are the best team in baseball by a wide margin.
When I look at how the team is constructed, I simply don’t see any weaknesses. Every hitter in the lineup is a major threat, with the exception of Brett Gardner. Their rotation is stacked #1-4, to the point that Joba and Hughes may both end up in the bullpen to form a longer, solid bridge to Mariano. Even defense, which was often an overlooked part of the team’s construction, is much improved from the years of Giambi stumbling around the bag, or Bernie Williams on his last legs in center field.
Oh, and they’re improved from last year too. Johnny Damon has been replaced by Curtis Granderson, who provides better defensive value and makes the team younger. Javier Vazquez joins the team as a #4 starter, after having a quiet Cy Young quality season in Atlanta.
The team’s one Achilles heel is the age of their core guys: Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Mariano. But with the market for players shrinking drastically the last two years, and the huge amount of resources available to the Yankees, I’m sure they’ll be able to replace anyone who goes down as the season progresses. They would be fine without one or two of their stars, but if the injury bug hits multiple players, then things won’t go quite as smoothly this year.
In years past, spring training brought with it an emotion of “Anyone can win the World Series this year”. And while that’s still true to some extent, this current incarnation of the Yankees has buried much of the parity we saw in the sport during the past decade. What does this mean for the other 29 teams? The bar has been set, and it’s going to take that much more effort from players and management to meet the challenge.
The Red Sox Counter with Pitching and Defense
The biggest arms race in baseball continued this winter, as the Red Sox had to make some changes to keep up with the Yankees. I’m sure Theo Epstein would have loved to trade for Adrian Gonzalez and slot him in at first base, but the Padres aren’t looking to trade their superstar just yet. So, rather than trying to outslug the Bronx Bombers, the Sox made some subtle, but substantial moves to improve in the run prevention department. If you’re a more traditional kind of baseball fan, you look at Jacoby Ellsbury and see your prototypical center fielder: lots of speed in the field and on the base paths. To the naked eye he looks and plays solid defense, but statistical analysis shows he was actually the worst defensive center fielder in the league last year.
Fans may disagree with this, but management doesn’t. They made a smart move by bringing in veteran CF Mike Cameron, who is still a top rated fielder despite getting up there in age. Ellsbury clearly has the talent and ability to play good defense, but lacks the experience and instincts. A season or two in left field should help him get adjusted, and Cameron is just the kind of player who can help Ellsbury improve (the guy has only had two full seasons in the big leagues, after all).
As a side note, the Cameron move is actually very reminiscent of when the Brewers acquired him in 2008: it allowed the team to reconfigure what had been a very poor defensive alignment. It created a domino effect that allowed the Bill Hall experiment in center field to end, shifting him back to a more comfortable third base position. This in turn allowed the team to move Ryan Braun, who had been an absolute butcher at third base, and hide his glove better in left field. The Red Sox may have been taking notes, as the 2010 Cameron acquisition improves their defense drastically in two positions.
The Sox have been blessed with a great homegrown defensive right side of the infield featuring Pedroia and Youkilis, and they now have a left side to match by signing Scutaro and Beltre. The Lackey acquisition came as a bit of a surprise, but once again gives the Red Sox the potential to have the best rotation in the league, assuming Beckett and Matsuzaka stay healthy while Buchholz continues to improve.
Make no mistake about it: in 2010, the Red Sox are in the run prevention business. Fans aren’t giving their lineup quite enough credit though, as it really has solid players 1-9. They may not have quite the pop fans would like to see, but I absolutely expect them to make a trade for a bat or two come the trade deadline. Too much is being made of the weight of Papi’s performance and what it means for the team’s success. Yes, it would be great for him to return to even 30 home run form, but in this current market, it won’t be too hard to obtain a power DH bat. Guys who fit the bill like Jermaine Dye and Carlos Delgado don’t even have a job at the moment.
Zduriencik Reigns in Seattle With Defense
After too many years of mismanagement in the Pacific Northwest, General Manage Jack Zduriencik has turned around the Mariners, and provided them with an identity. He’s proven to be ahead of the curve with analysis, collecting defensively strong players who were undervalued by the market. Franklin Gutierrez is probably the best example of this philosophy: Zduriencik picked him up in a three way trade when he was a center fielder without much of a bat, but solid defensive value. After two years in Seattle, we now know how important those defensive skills are: click here to check out his stats on FanGraphs. His bat only provided 6.3 runs over an average player through the course of the 2009 season, but his fielding saved a staggering 29 runs over an average player (this is more than ten runs better than the second best defender in the whole league, Evan Longoria). The end result? A player worth nearly six wins more than an average outfielder, a value that would be worth $26,400,000 on the open market.
Not bad for a guy who cost Seattle a little less than $500,000.
Take the Gutierrez strategy, expand it over the diamond, and you have the modern Seattle Mariners brand of baseball. Chone Figgins and Jack Wilson combine to create a vacuum for ground balls on the left side of the infield. The aforementioned Gutierrez combines with Ichiro to do much of the same for balls in the air. Even new first baseman Casey Kotchman is a glove first kind of player, rather than your prototypical slugger.
Oh, and of course they picked up Cliff Lee this winter, who combines with King Felix Hernandez, fresh off a new extension that will keep him in Seattle through 2014. Assuming both produce to form, Seattle should have the best 1-2 punch in the majors this year.
As someone who always purchases the Extra Innings package, I’ll be watching plenty of Mariners games this season for entertainment alone. This 2010 team may very well go down as the best defensive club in the history of the game, they have two bona fide aces, and two speedy on-base machines in Ichiro and Figgins at the top of their order. It’ll be a thrill to watch. The only thing missing is some power in the lineup, but if Milton Bradley can bring back the form that made him a deadly hitter in 2008, it’ll go a long way towards a playoff berth for Seattle.
The New Look Angels, For Better or Worse
On subject, the Angels have really seemed to own the AL West in recent memory, but I expect to see a significant race this time around. Despite losing Lackey, the pitching depth is still very strong between Kazmir, Weaver, Saunders, Santana and new acquisition Joel Pinero. There are no true aces in this bunch, but all are very capable pitchers who will give the team a chance to win. The Angels offense has really shifted in tone from its famous aggressive-on-the-bases style that defined the franchise in the past decade. Now, the heart of the order features guys with power and on-base ability in Matsui, Hunter, Morales and Rivera. The bullpen is also not what it used to be, as Brian Fuentes wasn’t the most reliable closer in his first American League season, and new acquisition Fernando Rodney’s WHIP is just as poor.
For the reasons mentioned above, Seattle really has a chance to take the division this year. Texas and Oakland also have strong farm systems stocked with pitching; while it’s unlikely that either team will contend for a playoff spot this year (unless the Rangers’ young guys develop faster than expected), they won’t be easy opponents for the Angels and Mariners.
The White Sox Gamble, the Twins Remain Steady
General Managers are often compared to poker players these days: they remain patient, wait for the right opportunities, maximize value whenever possible, and take into account all available statistics when making a move.
By the same analogy, White Sox GM Kenny Williams is far less of a poker player, and more of a high stakes gambler at the craps table: placing big bets and throwing the dice in hopes of a big payoff.
He traded top prospects and invested $52 million into three years of Jake Peavy’s services. The former Cy Young winner missed most of 2009 with an injury, but looked quite good in his 20 innings wearing a White Sox uniform. Still, he’s never proven himself in the American League, and he’ll need to be the Peavy of old to give the Sox a chance to contend.
An even bigger gamble was acquiring Alex Rios from the Blue Jays for, well . . . nothing. Rios’ contract was an albatross for the rebuilding Jays, and the best they could do was literally give him away to be free of the burden. Rios is a tremendous athlete and still relatively young, but he’s yet to fully realize his potential. The Sox are now stuck with his hefty contract through 2014, and fans are hoping he doesn’t become their albatross moving forward.
Some of Williams’ other gambles are a bit more calculated, such as getting J.J. Putz for $3m, and Andruw Jones for $500,000. Among other gambles, the Sox are really hoping Carlos Quentin can return to his 2008 form, when he made a strong case for AL MVP before injuring himself by slamming a bat in frustration after hitting a foul ball. The rotation and lineup are actually filled with a combination of steady veterans and young talent, so if Peavy, Rios and Quentin can play up to expectations, the division should go to the Sox.
The Twins’ philosophy is polar opposite of everything I just wrote about the White Sox. They are steady, build from within, and practically never take major risks bringing in external players. This time around, with a shrinking market for free agents, they made two incredibly smart signings by bringing in Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome on affordable one year contracts. Hudson should round out the infeld nicely with new shortstop J.J. Hardy, and Thome gives the team that one extra power bat they’ve always seemed to need. They’re opening a new stadium this year and feature reigning homegrown AL MVP Joe Mauer, who has become one of the biggest stars of this era. With their improvements, they have to be considered the favorite in the Central.
The Tigers have a solid core built around frontline starters Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer. They look like a team that can contend, but realistically, I don’t think this is their year. The team is still bogged down by expensive contracts currently held by guys who are likely past their prime in Magglio Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Guillen and Nate Robertson. They are actually in a great position to contend in 2011 once those contracts start to come off the books and they can bring in premium talent to support the core in a strong free agent class. This is not to say they can’t contend this season if things fall into place, but this looks to be a team in transition, and I applaud them for getting one step ahead to make their team stronger for the future.
Next up: the National League.
Popularity: 19% [?]
Yankees in Six – Again?
Posted by: | CommentsWell I, for one, certainly hope not. But we’ll just have to wait and see how the 2010 MLB season pans out. So many players, so many deals, so little time to put all the pieces together. But somehow, those 30-something-year-old big league GMs find a way. They always do; just ask Theo Epstein or Josh Byrnes. Or that seasoned 42-year-old brainiac by the name of Brian Cashman.
When I conjure up images from last year’s postseason, I can’t help but see Alex Rodriguez actually finding his groove and helping the Yankees claim their 40th AL Pennant and 27th World Series title, albeit the team’s first with A-Rod on board (six years in the making). I’m not a big A-Rod fan, never have been, but I had to actually give the guy his due based on his impressive postseason last year. I don’t like him for several reasons, but basically it boils down to these two: 1.) I’m a lifelong Red Sox fan; and 2.) he’s a pampered superstar who doesn’t like getting his hands dirty, literally. He is the anti-Mike Lowell in that respect, and any guy making $25 million a season to play baseball should be willing to get his uniform dirty once in a while.
Getting back to A-Rod’s resurrection from postseason failure, he earned a smidgen of my respect with last season’s turnaround. I mean, here was a guy who couldn’t find his bat, much less his swing, every time the postseason rolled around. He earned the nickname “The Cooler” since he always seemed to go cold at the most inopportune times for his team. But, lo and behold, he managed to put all the pieces together last fall by batting .378 in the playoffs and launching six bombs. Maybe it was gal-pal Kate Hudson’s influence? Perhaps she was the one guiding him on follow-through and consistency. Or perhaps it was Captain Derek Jeter’s stellar season (.334 with 18 dingers) coupled with Mark Texeira’s moon shots (39 of ‘em) and 38-year-old southpaw Andy Pettitte staying intact for the entire haul and notching 14 wins. And then again, maybe it was just Joe Girardi’s destiny, seeing as how he was already sporting No. 27 on his back. Whatever the reason, the Yankees won it all last year and are back on top of the baseball world.
But will they be there in 2010? In June, Pettitte turns 39, while Jeter turns 36. A month later, A-Rod turns 35. And a month after that, Jorge Posada celebrates his 39th birthday. These guys aren’t getting any younger. And the fact that World Series MVP Hideki Matsui signed in the offseason with the dreaded Halos of Anaheim could spell a different ending to this season’s merry-go-round. But then again, with the likes of CC Sabathia on the hill, Texeira at first, Robinson Cano covering second and the newly arrived Curtis Granderson patrolling center, chances are the Yankees will at least be in contention. And after all, isn’t that all anybody can ask for? Unless, of course, your last name is Steinbrenner.
Who might bump them off in the AL, you ask? Who else, but my beloved Sox, of course. By picking up John Lackey to shore up the starting rotation, as well as signing veteran center fielder Mike Cameron and Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre, the Sox are stocking up for a season-long battle with the Bronx Bombers. The acquisition of Cameron moves the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury from center to left, which actually improves Boston’s defense with any ricochets off the Green Monster after Jason Bay’s disappointing bolt to that other New York team. And backstop Victor Martinez will continue to get more comfortable with Fenway’s faithful so 2010 definitely looks like it’s shaping up to be another barnburner in the AL East.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot; those pesky Rays aren’t going away quietly. Yep, should be a doozy this year. Can’t wait.
Popularity: 19% [?]
Yankees Win 40th Pennant!
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s been six long years since the New York Yankees competed in the coveted Fall Classic. Not since Aaron Boone’s moon shot off Boston’s Tim Wakefield leading off the bottom of the 11th inning in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS catapulted them into history have the Bronx Bombers played for all the marbles. But stemming from last night’s 5-2 ALCS-clinching win over the visiting Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the Yankees are back in the World Series and in search of their 27th championship title. The fast-approaching WS action against the NL Champion Phillies starts Wednesday night at home.
Last night’s pennant-clincher in the Bronx started off in partly cloudy, 58-degree weather, mild temps for the Empire State this time of year. Starting pitchers Andy Pettitte (Yanks) and Joe Saunders (Halos) locked into a great pitcher’s duel through three innings. But the wheels started to come off for Saunders in the fourth, as the Yankees – trailing 1-0 at that point – proceeded to load the bases and tallied three runs before the bleeding stopped. Johnny Damon’s two-run single and a bases-loaded walk to A-Rod proved to be the exit plan for Saunders, who had thrown 83 pitches to that point.
The game was a great battle throughout as both teams gathered nine hits, but it was the timely hitting by the Yankees, coupled with botched fielding and running by the Angels, that spelled the outcome. Uncharacteristic fielding errors by Anaheim at the most crucial junctures helped the Angels find their golf bags two weeks early. Boneheaded base running by veteran batsman Vladimir Guerrero in the second inning started Anaheim’s demise. After singling off Pettitte to start the inning – the Angels’ first hit – Guerrero watched as Yankee right-fielder Nick Swisher sprinted in to snag Kendry Morales’ sinking liner. The problem was Guerrero was watching this from about 20 feet off first base. He was drifting too far off first and was quickly doubled-up by Swisher’s rocket throw back to first baseman Mark Texeira. This can start to deflate a team, you know?
But it was two unbelievable errors in the bottom half of the eighth that did in the Halos. After scoring a run in the top half of the inning off Yankees closer Mariano Rivera to bring them within a run, the Halos – along with the 50,000 fans at Yankee Stadium – could sense a slight momentum shift. The Angels would face Rivera in the top of the ninth with Howie Kendrick, Juan Rivera and pinch-hitter Gary Matthews. But there was something they needed to do first; keep the score close by getting the Yankees out in the bottom half of the eighth.
After just-arrived setup man Ervin Santana promptly walked Robinson Cano on four straight pitches to start the eighth, Anaheim manager Mike Scioscia yanked him and went to starter Scott Kazmir to keep the score close. Knowing that the Yankees would try to sacrifice Cano over to second, everybody was playing in, looking for the bunt. Swisher promptly obliged and Angels’ first baseman Kendry Morales fielded the bunt cleanly before firing the ball back up the first base line to second baseman Kendrick, who was covering first. Kendrick must have taken his eye off the ball as it gleaned off his glove, leaving both Cano and Swisher safe at second and first. Two men out, still no outs. Surely the Yanks would try the same ploy to advance the runners. And sure enough, they did.
With everybody in the stadium waiting for the bunt up the first base line, Melky Cabrera promptly delivered. Kazmir fielded the ball cleanly but immediately shot-putted an air ball to Kendrick, who was once again covering first on the play. The ball sailed over Kendrick’s outstretched arm, while Cano hustled home with the Yankees’ fourth run. After Derek Jeter grounded back to the pitcher for out No. 1, Damon came up and earned a walk to load the bases. Texeira then delivered a long fly ball to right-center which scored Brett Gardner (pinch-running for Swisher) with another important insurance run. Jered Weaver came in to relieve Kazmir and, after walking A-Rod, got Jorge Posada swinging to end the inning.
But the damage was done. Those two errors cost the Angels in a big way. They came back out in the top of the ninth, only this time the score was 5-2, not 3-2. One swing of the bat would not send this game into extras. The damage was done. The Angels knew it and went down in order in the ninth. Matthews ended the game appropriately enough by flailing at a high fastball.
The Angels’ mission of destiny – riding on the momentum of their season-long tribute to fallen teammate Nick Adenhart – was over. As for the Yankees, things are just starting to heat up. Let’s see if A-Rod can keep his postseason average above .300 against the Phillies.
This scribe has the Yanks winning their 27th title in six games against Philadelphia. In 1950, the last time these two clubs faced one another in the Fall Classic, the Yanks swept the Phillies. It won’t be that lopsided this time around, but the Yanks will prevail. Just wait and see.
Popularity: unranked [?]
Golf Anyone?
Posted by: | CommentsThe 2009 MLB season came to a crashing halt for the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. A stunning, 7-6, loss at the hands of the visiting Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was the final blow to the Bosox, who were swept in three straight games by the Halos in their A.L. Divisional Series
Winners of the American League Wild Card this year (Boston “won” the berth by losing six of their last seven games of the regular season), the Red Sox meandered into the postseason to face the high-flying A.L. West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Granted the Bosox won 95 games this year, but something wasn’t quite right in Beantown. The Fenway Faithful watched this season as the rival New York Yankees secured the A.L. East flag with a MLB-leading 103-59 record and a barrage of home run power not seen since the days of Ruth, Gehrig and Murderer’s Row. Boston had earned its sixth playoff nod in seven years, but the mood of the team and its fans was almost ho-hum.
The Angels, meanwhile, seemed to be on a mission. Winners of 97 games during the regular season, the Anaheim gang seemed ready to tackle the big, bad Bosox this time around. Having lost 11 of their previous 12 postseason meetings against Boston, the Angels had nothing to lose. And they played like it. Their pitching rose to the top and silenced the Boston bats like nobody’s business. And Anaheim’s near-season-long dedication and tribute to rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart – killed by a drunk driver in April – seemed to give the Halos even more incentive to win this time around. To win in dramatic fashion in the clinching Game 3 in Boston only made it all the sweeter for the Angels and their fans.
Trailing two games to none in the ALDS, the Red Sox finally found a few fastballs they liked in Game 3. In fact, when all the dust had settled, Boston’s biggest batsmen – Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Jason Bay – combined to go 3-for-32 for the series. But lo and behold, they actually built a 5-2 lead through seven innings and seemed poised to take the best-of-five series to a fourth game. In the top of the ninth, with a two-run (6-4) lead, two outs and nobody on, Boston relief ace Jonathan Papelbon simply forgot how to close the door. He gave up a crisp single to Erik Aybar to keep the Angels alive, and then walked Chone Figgins on a 3-2 pitch. Still two outs, mind you. But the pressure was mounting. Up strode former Yankee and newly christened Red Sox killer Bobby Abreu. Abreu sliced a looping line drive to left which careened off the Green Monster for a double, bringing in Aybar to make the score, 6-5. The tide was turning and Papelbon seemed overwhelmed by what was transpiring.
Up walked Torii Hunter to the plate. Dangerous to say the least, Boston’s pitching brain trust decided to walk Hunter to load the bases and take their chances with aging cleanup hitter Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad, the 2004 AL MVP, had not delivered an extra-base hit in his previous 69 postseason at-bats. But guess what? He delivered this time around.
On Papelbon’s first pitch to him – a knee-high fastball – Guerrero took a sweeping hack and drilled it into center field, dropping just in front of sprinting center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to bring in both Figgins and Abreu. The Angels led, 7-6, and Fenway Park became deathly quiet. You could hear a pin drop. The 38,704 fans at Fenway stood in disbelief. They could see that destiny, at least this time around, was not going to be on their side. Maybe the Fenway ghosts from the 2004 and ‘07 campaigns – when the Red Sox won their sixth and seventh World Series titles – had used up all their black magic.
The Red Sox went down in order in the bottom half of the inning. They seemed ready for the winter break. And maybe it was only fitting that second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, made the last out. He lofted a pop-up to Aybar at short to bring Boston’s 2009 season to an abrupt end. You might as well go out with your feistiest player, right?
Who’s up for a round of 18? Maybe Papelbon.
Popularity: unranked [?]
Fearless 2009 MLB Playoff Predictions
Posted by: | CommentsLiving in San Diego, we get used to spectacular weather. So it sounds a bit odd to say this, but I probably enjoy the fall out here more than any season. The warmth dies down just a bit, and I can wear my hoodie and/or leather jacket around for a few months. It’s just cool enough to make things cozy, but never cold enough that you’re freezing. So I trade in my shorts for jeans, drive around with the top down a bit less, and most importantly, enjoy postseason baseball.
Following yesterday’s Game 163 between the Tigers and Twins, it’s hard not to get excited. If you weren’t tuned in you missed an absolute classic, a game that showcased baseball at its best: everything on the line, a passionate and loud stadium, and a back-and-forth battle that went extra innings. Hopefully the rest of the fall can live up to that one game: given the outlook, I think we’re in for some great baseball over the next few weeks.
Here’s a overview of what we have lined up, and of course, my predictions.
NLDS: Rockies vs. Phillies
The Rockies started the season looking like not much of a threat at all, especially when you consider how the Dodgers came screaming out the gate. So go figure, you trade in Clint Hurdle for Jim Tracy, and suddenly it’s 2007 all over again: not quite the same ridiculous run, but enough of a sharp turnaround to warrant attention.
Comparing this year’s version to the 2007 National League pennant winners, I’d say they’ve made some major upgrades where position players are concerned. Chris Ianetta brings some slugging to the table (and a decent OBP for his position), Carlos Gonzalez is realizing his potential, and Dexter Fowler brings an added dynamic of speed to the team. You really have to give the Rockies credit: they scout and develop players exceptionally well. Troy Tulowitzki in particular may be the most underrated player in the game today, as he plays spectacular defense at shortstop, takes walks, and hits for plenty of power.
The Phillies are improved from last year’s World Championship version, with the exception of the bullpen. Their lineup offers very little breathing room, and is the only offense out of the four National League teams that can really match up with the American League juggernauts where slugging is concerned. But most importantly, the deadline acquisition of Cliff Lee gives the team a bonafide ace to put in front of Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton.
This series will really come down to two elements: the Rockies rotation, and the Phillies bullpen. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to evolve into a front line starter, and has the strikeout rate you want to see from a Game 1 playoff pitcher. Jorge De La Rosa would be the other strikeout specialist on the Rockies, but he’s out for the series with a groin injury. This is a huge blow to the Rockies’ chances, as they’ll probably need to slot Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel for games two and three.
Compared to Hamels, Happ and Blanton, you absolutely have to give the edge to the Phillies. Marquis and Hammel do not strike out a lot of batters, and their WHIPs are well in the 1.37 range. The Phillies will take their walks and hit the ball, which means that often enough, it’s heading out of the park to put some numbers on the board.
Yes, Brad Lidge has had his issues this year, but the rest of the Phillies bullpen is capable of picking up the slack. The Phillies are actually in the enviable position of having too many starters, so the bullpen will have plenty of guys who can throw multiple innings. Specifically, it looks like J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez will come on in relief for this five game series. Ryan Madson may not have the closer reputation necessarily, but he’s capable of shutting the door, at least for this series.
Prediction: Phillies in four.
NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
If not for some risky moves by the Cardinals front office to shore up the offense, this series would look much different. Luckily for St. Louis fans, Holliday is now backing up Pujols, providing some much needed protection. On paper, the lineup for the red birds should be solid, but recent production tells a different story. Julio Lugo hit .242 in September, and in the last twenty games Ludwick has hit .229, DeRosa .189, and Holliday only has one home run.
Compare to the Dodgers bats, and I think you need to give Los Angeles the edge. Yes, they don’t have Albert Pujols (no one else does, to be fair), but they scored 50 more runs this season. Pujols and Holliday are both better hitters than anyone the Dodgers have (save Manny, if he gets going), but the Dodgers have a more capable 1-through-8 batting order.
Of course, the key to this series isn’t the bats, but the Cardinals’ monster 1-2 punch of Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. They represent two of the National League’s best pitchers, and both already have a championship ring from 2006: so don’t expect either to be intimidated. In a short series, while I do think the Dodgers offense is better, it’s just going to be too difficult to put up three victories against this rotation.
Given the daunting task ahead of them, the Dodgers’ chance for success rests on Clayton Kershaw’s shoulders. The 21 year old has the strikeout talent to dominate in the postseason, but he’s had some poor starts as the regular season came to a close. He’s thrown 60+ innings more than last year, so you’re left to wonder how much he’ll have left in the tank at his age.
But if the endurance is there, he could potentially outduel Wainwright in Game 2, giving the Dodgers a chance to go after groundball specialist Joel Pinero in Game 3. And who knows, maybe the Cardinals bats will be stagnant for Game 1 against Randy Wolf. I still have to give the edge to the Cardinals, but Dodgers fans have some hope here.
Prediction: Cardinals in four.
ALDS: Yankees vs. Twins
Last night’s game was one of the best I’ve ever seen, and was a prime example of why baseball is such a great sport.
That being said, count me in with the rest of North America when I say there’s no way the Twins can beat the Yankees after that. They’re exhausted after playing 12 innings, and will get very little sleep before heading to the Bronx. The new Yankee Stadium is a friendly place for home run hitters, which is bad news for a team like the Twins with very little power. Even if the stadium plays short, I don’t expect the likes of Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris or Denard Span to be able to take advantage of this environment. If the Twins had Justin Morneau in the lineup I’d give them a chance, but they’ll be forced to play a different brand of baseball in New York, one they can’t compete at.
The Yankees however, will eat up the Twins starting rotation, hit plenty of home runs, and their bullpen will protect the leads. It’s been a great, inspiring run by Minnesota, but they are clearly overmatched here.
Prediction: Yankees in three.
ALDS: Angels vs. Red Sox
This series is becoming a rivalry of its own, with the Sox seemingly always getting the best of the Angels. Both teams have changed a bit in terms of strengths and weaknesses over the last few years, but the Sox have retained their dominant pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. As has become standard under the Theo regime, this will be what Red Sox Nation hangs its hopes on.
And to be fair, when you’re gunning for your third World Series championship of the decade, there are worse places to put your bets than on the arms of Lester, Beckett, Buccholz, Dice-K and Papelbon. The talent is still there but health is a bit of a question mark, with Beckett and Dice-K struggling through their share this year. But then again, both have earned a reputation as “big game” pitchers, and most fans expect they’ll ramp it up now that October is here.
The weakness of the Red Sox in this series has been highly publicized: the running game. Mike Scioscia loves to push aggression on the basepaths, and with Varitek and V-Mart tasked with throwing them out, the green light will be on like never before. Look for Figgins, Abreu and Hunter to steal early and often, while middle infielders Kendrick and Aybar will swipe their share as needed. But unlike Angels lineups of years past, this one has more than one dimension, and can hit home runs and take walks to go with the speed.
Lackey, Weaver and Kazmir are lined up to pitch for the Angels. Aside from Lackey’s age 23 run with the 2002 World Championship team, none of these Angels have the intimidating championship pedigree Lester and Beckett bring to the table. The Angels rotation actually comes into this series healthier and with less question marks, while the Sox come in with the potential for their guys to dominate. But, there’s also more potential for the Sox rotation to put up a bad start, especially with Beckett’s back issues. His Game 2 start will really be the key in this series. I expect all three Angels pitchers will give their team a chance to win, while there’s a lot more variance with what can happen to the Sox rotation, between good and bad extremes.
The big difference in this series will likely turn out to be the bullpen. This is not the lockdown Angels bullpen you’ve grown to fear, with leads confidently handed off to capable middle relievers, before the ball gets to Scot Shields and K-Rod. Brian Fuentes has 48 saves on the year, but also has a 1.40 WHIP. These late innings will be crucial, and if I’m an Angels fan, I’m biting my nails until that last out. In contrast, the Sox bullpen continues to be a major strength, and should be able to put away the game if given a lead.
It’ll be a very entertaining series, especially with the new dynamic of the Angels offense. Game 2 is going to be absolutely crucial, as a victory against Beckett will be needed to at least keep the series even headed back to Boston. If that happens, the Halos have a chance. But a strong bullpen is so important if you want to win a championship, and the difference between the teams is huge in that regard.
Prediction: Red Sox in four.
NLCS: Phillies vs. Cardinals
Once we expand to a seven game series, the 1-2 punch at the top of the Cardinals rotation becomes less dominant, as St. Louis will need to rely on their other starters. You still need to give the Cardinals the edge where the front of the rotation is concerned, but really, with Cliff Lee in the mix, it’s not a huge gap between the two teams. Speaking to the offense, again, Pujols and Holliday are great, but the rest leaves something to be desired. The Phillies leave very little room to breathe, and Cardinals pitchers will have their hands full.
The Cardinals need to win every game that Carpenter and Wainwright pitch. If the Phillies can win at least one of those, they’ll be headed to the World Series with a chance to repeat. Given a 1-in-4 chance, I like those odds.
Prediction: Phillies in seven.
ALCS: Yankees vs. Red Sox
Here we go again! Honestly, all I care about this postseason is seeing this rivalry once more to close out the decade: this time around, it’ll be spectacular. Yes, the drama of The Curse is gone, but that evens the playing field a bit, and actually puts a bit more pressure on the Yankees. After all the spending in the winter and the dominance in the regular season, it’s up to them to get the job done and even out the decade a bit following 2004 and 2007. It won’t be about curses or grandpappy seeing the Sox win it all just once, but rather, which team is better at baseball. Period. The level of talent on the field and the battle that’ll take place between both teams is all the drama I’ll need, personally.
I know, I’m sounding like an ESPN or FOX executive, or some of the mainstream press who seem to think baseball doesn’t exist outside New York and Boston. But I just love how these teams line up in 2009. The Sox probably have a better rotation, but who knows what Beckett will bring to the table? Will the back spasms do him in, or does he continue to be a Yankee killer? Can Dice-K return to form, or can Buccholz handle the pressure of the big stage? And it’s not like Sabathia, Burnett or even Pettitte are a sure thing on any given night. I honestly think it’s safe to say that in a 2009 Sox vs. Yankees ALCS, the rotations are structured in a way where any team can win on any given night: there’s no one dominant performer (say, Pedro of years gone by, or Schilling at his peak), and most of these starters are equally likely to craft a gem, or succumb to the opposing team’s offense.
Where bats are concerned, the Yankees obviously have the edge. With Teixeira at first, Abreu’s terrible range out of right field, Cano’s continued improvements and even Jeter doing much better with the glove, the Yankees are well equipped to play both sides of the field for a change. Both teams have good bullpens this year, but you still have to give the edge there to the Red Sox.
It’ll be an entertaining series if it happens, one that’ll slow down work productivity in the Northeast for a week or two. In the end, I think the Yankees offense is too much to handle, and for once, their pitching can hold up their end of things. Sure, Sabathia, Burnett, Joba and Pettitte are all capable of having a terrible start, but I don’t expect it’ll happen to all of them. And even in case of disaster, the Yankees are capable of digging themselves out of an early hole with their power, especially at home.
Prediction: Yankees in six.
World Series: Phillies vs. Yankees
Most Mets fans (myself included) will likely cheer for the Yankees in this scenario, and that’s saying something.
More seriously, both teams mirror each other a bit. They both have incredibly strong lineups, play in bandboxes, and have rotations that are strong, but can still be knocked around on a bad night. The Phillies would probably have the best starter in the series in Cliff Lee, who also has plenty of experience pitching against American League teams. For the Phillies to have a chance, they’d need to win both of Lee’s starts.
Rotations and defense are fairly comparable, but the Yankees have a better offense and a better bullpen. The Phillies are used to being able to bring the thunder and outslug their opponents when all else fails, but that’s a game the Yankees would be happy to play. Given the nature of both stadiums, you’d expect lots of home runs and big scoring games.
In the end, the Yankees are just too good. They could probably benefit from a bit more reliability in the rotation, but that’s really nitpicking considering their other strengths. If it comes down to Yankees and Phillies, the American League team will overmatch their National League counterpart, and beat them in a slugfest.
Prediction: Yankees in six.
What are your predictions? Comment here, or post yours to our Facebook page! I’m eager to hear your thoughts, as this is just one man’s opinion.
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