Archive for Detroit Lions
2009 Rookie of the Year Candidates
Posted by: | CommentsThe NFL season is winding down, and the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. I have followed the rookies for the whole year on both my site and this one, keeping a close eye on those who stand out as top of the class. With the offensive and defensive Rookie of the Year award, there are a few contenders that are at the forefront of the discussion. Many of these rookies have won at least one of the Upper Deck Rookie of the Week awards, and there are still three weeks left for the others to jump on board.
First, I want to discuss my thoughts on the offensive side of the ball, as these are the players that usually receive the most attention. Each of these candidates has meant a great deal to their team (some of which have even won games single handedly). They’ve also had some of the better rookie seasons in recent memory, and the exclamation point will be on the way for two of them come February.
Percy Harvin
If there is one player that has redefined the word “electrifying” this year, Percy Harvin is him. In addition to catching six TD passes from Brett Favre, he also has run back two kicks for touchdowns as well. He leads all rookies in plays over twenty yards from scrimmage, and has been Favre’s favorite third down target for the whole year. He has also functioned as a running back in some cases, carrying the ball out of the Wildcat and motion formations (some of which went for good yardage). He is pretty much the complete package, but the problem of migraines late in the season may hamper his run for this award. He has already missed one game, and is on track to miss at least one more. Regardless, his odds are still pretty good to come home with the trophy.
Knowshon Moreno
Denver has always been famous for churning out great running backs, and Moreno is no exception. He leads rookie running backs in yards, attempts, yards per carry, touchdowns, and has put together a very nice rookie campaign. Denver started off as one of the three undefeated teams into the middle of the season, and Moreno was a factor in those wins. His five touchdowns are tops on the team, and he is primed for a 1,000 yard season with 837 yards and three weeks to go. Moreno also looks like he will be a force in the years to come, as the Broncos running game has drastically improved with his arrival. His drawbacks are few, but the ones that stick out in my mind are a few key fumbles in key situations. However, this shouldn’t hurt him too much: if Harvin falters and misses the last few games, Moreno is probably the favorite.
Matt Stafford
Before last year, rookie quarterbacks were never expected to put up good seasons due to the time needed to develop into an efficient playmaker. Stafford was drafted by the Lions to take over the reins as soon as possible and has done that effectively. He brought the first two wins in the last two years to the team, one coming on the last play of the game with a hurt shoulder. He also set the rookie record for touchdowns and passing yardage in a single game, making a good case for his winning the award. But the problem with Stafford all season has been injuries, as he missed a number of games with knee and shoulder problems. Stafford has done his best to make us forget those weeks, but at this point he will need some big numbers to convince us that he deserves consideration.

Mark Sanchez
This season has been about as big of a roller coaster as it could be for Sanchez, starting very high and going through some twists and turns. Right now, the roller coaster is probably at its lowest, with Sanchez having missed the last game, but the team record could do a lot more for him when compared to Stafford. Sanchez has also thrown a lot of interceptions, but those came on the back of some great performances early in the season. I’m not sure how much of a chance he has right now, but he still has some time to make his case.

Beanie Wells
Although he started off slow, Wells has slowly become the running man in Arizona, putting up touchdowns in the last few games. He has also performed above expectations with yards per carry average, and has done a very good job in getting the struggling Cardinals running game on track. It used to be that the Cardinals would come in and hit you with the gruesome wide receiver twosome, but now there is an added element with Wells carrying the ball. I like Wells’ potential in years to come . . . but as for Rookie of the Year, he is a longshot.
Hakeem Nicks
I think Hakeem Nicks has quietly put together an awesome rookie season. He leads the rookies in receiving yards and is tied for the lead in touchdown receptions, but hasn’t received the same kind of attention as someone like Harvin. He definitely has a shot if the Giants can put together a nice run to get into the playoffs, but it will take some major convincing to dethrone the people ahead of him.
When it comes to defensive Rookie of the Year, there are really only two names in the discussion, mainly because of how well they have performed in their team’s overall defensive arrangement.
Brian Cushing
Cushing is the only rookie to have put up 100 tackles, and has also had 2.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and a few interceptions. He has truly been a one man wrecking crew, and his credentials are top notch for Defensive ROY. I would say that Cushing is basically the end all and be all of this award, but the overall Texans defense has been less than stellar.
Clay Matthews
Matthews has been a freaking beast for the Packers in their 3-4 defense. He has 8.0 sacks and has put together an awesome season. He may only have 40 tackles, but he did rip away a touchdown from Adrian Peterson when the Packers played the Vikings early in the season. Its going to be him or Cushing, and that is a no doubter.
With that, my picks so far are going to be Percy Harvin and Brian Cushing, but there is still a chunk of season left to play. Many of the rookies are going to be playing on teams that are fighting for their lives, and that may lead to some changes in the rankings. Who knows: once the season comes to an end, we may have someone new altogether.
Also, be sure to continue to enter the codes from all of your favorite Upper Deck cards, as you still have the chance to win great prizes if your code matches the Rookie of the Week. Of course, it couldn’t hurt to bank on these guys, as they are mostly all past winners. You can also win an autographed football of all the rookies who attended the 2009 Rookie Premiere, giving you another reason to diligently follow the Own The Rookies site.
Adam Gellman runs the collecting blog Sports Cards Uncensored, and has been a collector of all things sports for over 15 years. To see more of his work, visit www.sportscardsuncensored.com (warning: strong language!).
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Brag Photo of the Week: Lions Win!
Posted by: | CommentsIf you’ve been following the promotion at OwnTheRookies.com, you know that Matthew Stafford is our current Rookie of the Week. After nineteen straight losses, the rookie quarterback and first overall pick from the draft lead the Detroit Lions to their first victory since late 2007. On the collecting side of things, Adam Gellman did his usual great job of showing which cards to invest in for Stafford, and why.
A few weeks back, I cracked into the vaults here to get some shots of the amazing, limited Mark Sanchez USC jersey cards. I do like to be topical, so check out another one I captured at the same time:

Yet another gem from SP Threads (coming to a retail store near you soon!/shill). It’s a signed letterman patch produced in very limited quantities: check the number. And of course, I’ve got to show off the full spread (good luck collecting THIS . . .)

Pretty sweet, especially considering Stafford will only be a rookie once. But can he lead the Lions to two wins in a row this Sunday?
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Rookie of the Week: Week 3 – Matthew Stafford
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the most exciting reasons to collect NFL rookie cards is that you get to watch their values spike if the players perform on the field. To help capture that excitement, Upper Deck launched a new website to help collectors track 2009 NFL rookie cards, but also make predictions on which rookie would have the best week at OwnTheRookies.com.
Collectors who can successfully guess the player who will be Upper Deck’s “Rookie of the Week” will be entered into a drawing to win a box of 2009 NFL cards. For helping the Detroit Lions break their NFL record losing streak, Matthew Stafford has been given top honors for this week. If you entered codes from Stafford’s cards last week, stay tuned to the website to see if you are a winner!
Many thought that the Lions could stretch their losing streak to an epic twenty games or more, unless some luck came their way. Last Sunday, Matthew Stafford proved that maybe luck wasn’t the only thing they needed. For the first time in almost two seasons, the Lions went up early thanks to a beautiful TD pass from Stafford to Bryant Johnson, and he played practically mistake free until the final gun. Stafford racked up close to 250 yards in passing and was able go without a turnover for the first time this year. He also rushed for 23 yards, helping the sometimes outmatched defense play without the pressure of the streak on their shoulders.
Stafford was the consensus overall number one pick coming out of Georgia, but not everyone thought the Lions should go in that direction. After putting up a poor performance in week one, and struggling in week two, the critics started chirping that Stafford needed more time to develop on the bench. After the game on Sunday, the tide seems to have changed. Ever since the Lions started their streak of incompetence, QB play had always been at the forefront of the disasters on the field. They had Calvin Johnson, but no talent to get the ball to him. Stafford was drafted to help with that problem, and up until the Redskins victory, was not necessarily living up to the billing.
Many teams are going to start to avoid the adjustment year that new QBs usually require to be successful because of the stellar play from Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez (Upper Deck’s first Rookie of the Week this year), but not everyone can fit into that mold with ease. Stafford is also playing on one of the worst teams in NFL history, so its going to be tougher for him to do well with no experience.
Even though Mark Sanchez may be the rookie toast of the league at the moment, Stafford definitely should not be ignored. He has shown flashes of brilliance despite working with a bad offensive line and one receiver. This has lead to some of the top card values of the 2009 rookie class, despite the fact that the Lions are 1-2. Regardless, Stafford will be very good, especially with the likes of Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith playing around him; even more so as tight end Brandon Pettigrew starts to fit into his role.
When it comes to the cards available right now, there are quite a few that I would suggest picking up as soon as possible. First, when SPx is released this week, Stafford should have one of the more valuable rookie jersey autographs in the set. It will feature three swatches of player worn jersey, and will be numbered lower than many of the other releases so far this year.

Others I would keep an eye out for are his autographs out of UD Philadelphia, as some of the inscriptions he did are the best of the set. Because his autograph is so clear on every card he signs, having a hard signed example like the ones on the 5×7 box toppers out of the product can be an amazing centerpiece to any Lions collection. If you can find the one he signed “Lion King,” I may have to hunt you down for a trade, as I think it was one of the more brilliant autographs I have ever seen.

Lastly, Stafford had some great cards in UD Draft, especially the dual autographs with fellow Georgia Bulldog Knowshon Moreno. The base draft auto is another hard signed autograph card, and should be pretty affordable for the people who can’t spend much money on one. If you can get one of the duals, it wouldn’t be too bad of an investment considering that Moreno also had a great week.

Overall, Matthew Stafford should be hailed just for being the one to put a tick in the win column for the Lions, but its becoming more apparent that he is going to be great in the coming years. As the Lions improve (and they will), Stafford will too, so don’t be afraid to start your collection now while things are cheaper. He has the skills to be great, though having Johnson to throw to should help just as much.
Check in next week for the newest rookie to win top honors of the week, and don’t forget to enter in all your rookie card codes from the Upper Deck products you have collected so far. Not only can you win prizes, but the site has some great features to allow you to track rookies and their cards this season!
Adam Gellman runs the collecting blog Sports Cards Uncensored, and has been a collector of all things sports for over 15 years. To see more of his work, visit www.sportscardsuncensored.com (warning: strong language!).
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The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: NFC North
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Division Previews
Chicago Bears
Expected Wins- 8.83
Scouting Wins- 9.09
DVOA Wins- 10.5
2008 Record- 9-7

If you are a Chicago fan you are aware of what the Bears did during the offseason. The Bears were the chief beneficiary of a dysfunctional regime change in Denver. Jay Cutler might be the most talented young quarterback to change teams in my lifetime. Cutler is not the most beloved of teammates and there will be extreme pressure on him to produce. His early success will be heavily dependent on the development of his youthful receiving corps. Wide receiver Devon Hester has steadily improved his receiving skills and has become quite adept at drawing pass interference penalties. The second option after Hester looks to be tight end Greg Olson. Despite not having great run blocking ahead of him, running back Matt Forte has been quite effective for the Bears. The offensive line has a pair of former greats, one of whom still is. Center Olin Kreutz is still exceptional but left tackle Orlando Pace has worn down and is now a bit brittle. The Bears offensive line depth will likely be tested.
The Bears defense slipped in 2008 but was still one of the better defenses in the NFL. One of the main reasons for the slippage was the play of defensive tackle Tommie Harris. When Harris is healthy only Albert Haynesworth is comparable. Last year both his health and effort lagged. Apart from Harris the Bears defensive line is filled with good but not game-changing players. The Bears want to give their defensive line a bit more rest and used their first pick (3rd round) on defensive tackle Jarron Gilbert. Last year the defensive line had trouble producing a pass rush and that is going to be their first priority in 2009.
Weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs is one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is no longer dominant but he still is a plus for the defense.
Let me go off on a bit of a tangent here. Because of a weak pass rush last season the Bears had to threaten pressure from the linebackers. This put them out of position and played against their strengths. Furthermore it put the secondary into a lot of man coverage. The secondary had been constructed to play Tampa-2 style zone and was not particularly effective in man coverage. Having no pass rush at all will get your secondary killed but if you need to bring more than 4 men to generate your pass rush you still might be in trouble, something the Bears experienced last year.
The Bears secondary battled injury problems last season. Cornerback Nathan Vasher was once an elite player but has regressed. If Vasher does not return to form the Bears secondary lacks impact players.
The Bears special teams regressed from excellent to merely very good which is the same level of performance I expect from them this season. Hester gets a lot of attention but Danieal Manning was the more effective return man last season.
The Bears certainly have as much potential as any team in the NFC this season. They still have much of the talent that led them to 13 wins in 2006. However, offensive line issues, a weak wide receiving corps, and an aging defense lead me to believe the Bears won’t be a great team this season. They went 9-7 last season and that is what I expect for them this year.
Detroit Lions
Expected Wins- 4.64
Scouting Wins- 3.53
DVOA Wins- 5.8
2008 Record- 0-16

Where do I start? The Lions have an epic rebuilding job ahead of them. Let me list what they have going for them:
Quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and running back Kevin Smith are all talented and can form the core of a potent offense. Coach Jim Schwartz is notable for being a football coach who embraces statistical analysis and might start correcting a variety of inefficiencies that fans and analysts have cried about for years. General Manager Martin Mayhew understands the situation the Lions are in and is going to be able to sacrifice short-term success for long-term growth. Please note that I am not optimistic about Stafford, and that we might never know how good he can be as his offensive line might get him killed (Carr, David).
Defensively expect the Lions to be aggressive. Apart from a pretty good linebacker corps the defense looks like it will usually be overmatched. Defensive end Cliff Avril looked like the best defensive lineman on the Lions in 2008 and it will be interesting to see if can improve upon his level of play. The secondary has been rebuilt and will almost certainly be better than last year’s version. Rookie free safety Louis Delmas should be fun to watch.
The Lions special teams were consistently good on kickoffs and punt coverage, and consistently poor at returning kickoffs and punts. Kicker Jason Hanson had a flukishly good season. The Lions’ special teams are not a weakness, which is nice given how many holes there are on the roster.
The Lions are obviously not a good football team but they’re a lot better than 0-16. I have them going 4-12 but the real issue with the Lions isn’t wins and losses, it is player development and talent acquisition. The biggest priority for the Lions right now is to help turn Matthew Stafford into Troy Aikman as opposed to letting him languish like David Carr, Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell.
Green Bay Packers
Expected Wins- 8.67
Scouting Wins- 8.74
DVOA Wins- 7.4
2008 Record- 6-10

The Packers went 6-10 in 2008 but they were not a bad or even below average football team. They outscored their opponents 419 to 380, but went 0-7 in games decided by 4 points or less. That is simply bad luck and won’t happen again.
Offensively the Packers are making some changes, specifically concerning their offensive line schemes. The Packers are switching from a zone-blocking scheme to a man-blocking scheme but their personnel seems ill-suited to the change. I must admit the offense looks underwhelming no matter what scheme they run. Another concern I have for the Packers offense is the health and performance of running back Ryan Grant. He was hampered by a hamstring injury last season and if he doesn’t regain his 2007 form he must be considered a liability on offense. Having fullback Korey Hall stay healthy will help the offense as Grant’s performance suffered without him. Now, for the good news: quarterback Aaron Rodgers was excellent last season and the Packers have an elite wide receiving corps. Rodgers and wide receiver Greg Jennings form one of the top combinations in the NFL. Wide receiver Donald Driver has been remarkably healthy and remains quite productive despite being 34. Jordy Nelson stepped up into the third WR slot and performed quite well. Tight end Donald Lee has been very effective inside the red zone. Overall the Packers passing game should be quite good as long as the offensive line can give Rodgers time to operate.
Defensively, the Packers are switching to a 3-4 system. The Packers drafted B.J. Raji to share nose tackle duties with Ryan Pickett. The addition of Raji should protect Pickett from wearing down, and Raji looks like he could be a potential star due his quickness off the line. I’m less happy with the Packers’ defensive ends as I cannot find anyone that I love, although Mike Montgomery has done a pretty good job despite not being particularly gifted athletically.
Outside linebacker (and former defensive end) Aaron Kampman is not happy about the switch to a 3-4 defense as he is much better attacking the line than playing in space. He has the talent to make the transition, and the rest of the linebacker corps is quite good. A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett should form an effective inside-outside unit, although flipped from last season when Hawk was outside and Barnett was inside. Even without linebacker Clay Matthews (the Packers other first- round selection) the Packers had a very good linebacker corps. The addition of Raji and Matthews should fortify what looked to be a solid front seven.
Scouts love the Packers secondary but cornerback Charles Woodson is 33 years old and cornerback Al Harris is two years his senior. Cornerback Tramon Williams hasn’t developed a great feel for the game. Free safety Nick Collins had a monster year in 2008 with seven interceptions, three of which he returned for touchdowns. And strong safety Atari Bigbi has been injury prone and could lose his job.
The Packers could use a better punter as well as a better kick returner but overall their special teams are only slightly below average.
I like the Packers a lot more than their DVOA projection. I expect them to have a strong passing game as well as a pretty good defense. I have concerns about the offensive backfield and the secondary, but the only major concern is the offensive line. The Packers also luck out a bit in that they get the Bears at home in Week 1 before Jay Cutler has had a chance to settle in and they get the Vikings on the road in Week 4 before the Starcaps suspensions end (update, it appears that the players have successfully managed to delay any league disciplinary action). I’d like to give the Packers 10 wins but their DVOA projection and their offensive line both give me pause, so I’ll go with 9-7.
Minnesota Vikings
Expected Wins- 9.46
Scouting Wins- 9.42
DVOA Wins- 8.8
2008 Record- 10-6

This will end badly. I’m not saying that as a bitter Jets fan. I’m saying that as a bitter Jets fan who used to live in Madison, WI. The best-case scenario is that defenses overestimate Favre and give Adrian Peterson some rushing room. I can’t blame the Vikings for trying to improve their quarterback situation but Favre’s arm simply isn’t what it used to be. Kurt Warner is 38 years old and there are major concerns about him regressing. Favre is 39. I’m not sold on Tavaris Jackson (who is?), but perhaps Sage Rosenfels would have been able to punish teams for putting eight men in the box to stop Peterson. Speaking of Peterson, his numbers are excellent, particularly given that defenses are keyed to stop him, but he will start to wear down if he doesn’t get more help. I’m also concerned about his fumbling problems. Running back Chester Taylor is an excellent backup and quite helpful as both a pass blocker and receiver.
I’m not sure what to say about the WR corps. Bernard Berrian is quite good, although he has been bothered by foot injuries. Tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and Jim Kleinsasser handle receiving and blocking quite well respectively. Shiancoe looks to become a star. Rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin has first-round talent but I suspect the Vikings made a mistake taking him. He is still quite immature and the list of wide receivers from the SEC that have not lived up to their first round status is long. The Vikings offensive line has a split personality. The left side is dominant as both tackle Bryant McKinnie and guard Steve Hutchinson are among the best in the NFL. Center Matt Birk had clearly fallen off but I’m not confident in his replacement, John Sullivan. The Vikings drafted Phil Loadholt to take over at right tackle. He has great size and strength, but lacks agility. I think he should eventually become a pretty good player for the Vikings but it might not be immediate. Right guard Anthony Herrera was pretty bad last season. Overall the offensive line should be pretty good, particularly at run blocking. The offense really will go as far as Favre (or Jackson, or Rosenfels) can take them.
Defensive end Jared Allen lived up to his star billing. It looks like The Williams’s (Pat and Kevin) will both have to miss four games to start the season (update: maybe not, they have so far been successful in court). When they return the Vikings will have one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL. Defensive end Ray Edwards had decent results given he was usually facing single blocking but he was quite good against the run and looks to be improving. There are depth concerns on the defensive line, but Fred Evans was pretty good filling in at defensive tackle. The Vikings defense played quite well after linebacker E.J. Henderson’s injury, but he was playing at an elite level and his return should help the defense. Linebackers Chad Greenway and Ben Leber round out a well regarded unit. He’s 32 year old but Antoine Winfield has finally become an elite cornerback. Cornerback Cedric Griffin has been inconsistent but was pretty good overall last season. I like the promotion of Tyrell Johnson to strong safety. Free safety Madieu Williams is not really a good fit in the cover-2 scheme but he is a net plus for the Vikings.
The Vikings special teams won’t be as bad this season as they were last year. Percy Harvin might add a spark in the return game. The punt coverage units should be an area of focus for the coaching staff,
Last year the Vikings had a Super Bowl quality defense and a terrible offense. This season I don’t expect much to change. I don’t buy Favre as savior. Between the defense and the running game I can see nine wins. If they get competent quarterback play, 10 or 11 wins would be about right. When it looked like the Williams’s were going to be suspended for four games I was leaning towards 9-7, but with them available all season 10-6 is the projection.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
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