Archive for Boston Red Sox
Beantown Management: Why I Have Theo Envy
Posted by: | CommentsLast week, I wrote about Brian Cashman’s struggle to turn around the Steinbrenner endorsed big ticket player strategy of sacrificing the long term plan to obtain short term gains. This week, I’ll look at his rival Red Sox front office, led by Theo Epstein.
There is a major contrast between the way these two organizations approach putting together their 25 man rosters, specifically where veteran players are concerned. Here’s a simple list to give you an idea:
New York Yankees: Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Hideki Matsui
Boston Red Sox: Nomar Garciaparra, Johnny Damon, Pedro Martinez, Manny Ramirez
These are lists of iconic players for both franchises, but there’s a huge difference between the two: none of the players listed under Red Sox are still with the team.
To be more specific . . .
Nomar Garciaparra: Traded 7/31/04 for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz. When this trade was announced, even fans outside Boston wondered what the Red Sox were doing trading a guy who had been their franchise player. But in retrospect, it was a brilliant move. Cabrera and Mientkiewicz’s presence gave the Red Sox a stronger infield defense, and the team went on to win the World Series that year. Meanwhile, Nomar went on to have a ton of injuries, and wasn’t able to get back to the same Hall of Fame level production as his prime years in Boston.
Johnny Damon: Following the 2005 season, the Red Sox wouldn’t go past a three year offer for Damon, while the Yankees offered four years: thus, on went the pinstripes, and off came the long hair and beard. Damon has gone on to be fairly productive in the Bronx (barring some injury time), though his days of playing center field every day are over.
Pedro Martinez: In a similar situation to Damon, Martinez was only offered two or three years after his contract expired, while the Mets came calling with a four year deal. Off he went. The Mets would get about a season and a half of productivity for the duration of his new deal.
Manny Ramirez: Recent developments aside, it was clear Manny didn’t want to play in Boston, and the Red Sox finally granted him his wish. Getting back a happy and productive Jason Bay in return, and no longer dealing with Manny Being Manny, most fans would say the Sox got the better of the deal here.
All four of these players have something in common: they were iconic players for the franchise, and contributed to a World Series championship. But when their contracts were up, and push came to shove, the Red Sox opted to let these players go, rather than sign them to long term deals where they’d certainly be past their prime.
By comparison, take a look at those Yankee names. Jorge Posada got a four year contract in 2007, and will be a Yankee through 2011, when he’ll be a 40 year old catcher. Mariano Rivera was given a three year deal at the same time, and will also be on this team at age 40. Hideki Matsui was given a four year extension in 2005, and this is his last year under contract. Thus far, Posada has already lost one year to injury, but has been productive this year. Injuries have slowed down Matsui considerably, and it’s doubtful he’ll get another Yankee contract. Mariano continues to be the marvel he’s always been.
What you see here is a notable contrast in philosophy: the Red Sox are perfectly willing to let their iconic players go after their best years are behind them (with the notable exception of captain Jason Varitek), and will make creative trades or signings to bring fresh talent to the team. Meanwhile, in the Bronx, you get the feeling that management wants to ensure that certain players remain in pinstripes for the length of their career, even if it means sub-par production for a high price in that last year or two of the contract.
For example, what do the Yankees do with Derek Jeter when his current contract expires in 2010? He’s made $20 million a year the last three seasons; will they match that? Going into his age 37 season, if his agent demands a four or five year deal, can they say no (especially given the huge ten year deal A-Rod got last season)? And if so, how long can you expect him to play shortstop? When he gets older, where do you put him on the diamond?
If Jeter was simply “Player X” with the same stats at his age, you get the feeling that the Yankees wouldn’t push as hard to renew his contract. But he’s Jeter the Yankee Captain. I highly doubt he’ll ever wear another uniform, even if it means trying to figure out where he plays at say, age 41. Though to be entirely fair, Jeter is having a great 2009 (hard to argue with a .321 average and .398 OBP), and those trademark “intangibles” are probably worth a lot to the Yankees.
By contrast, the Red Sox politely let Damon and Pedro walk away, traded Nomar when it made sense, and got Manny out of town when the situation become too unbearable. Theo Epstein and his management team understand the value of letting franchise players go when their peak has passed, and focus instead on obtaining young players, and using creative trades and signings to remain competitive.
Since that 2004 championship team, “The Idiots” are gone. No more Damon, Millar, Pedro or Manny. The roster has been remade in the mold of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon. Ironically enough, they’re now following the same blueprint the Yankees used to win all those championships before the century turned: put together a strong core of young players, and surround them with premium veteran talent.
One of the most impressive things about how the Red Sox operate is that they always have a plan in mind, and are willing to think outside the box to get an advantage. This past off-season was especially smart: in a market where veteran players were undervalued, they signed John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, Brad Penny and Rocco Baldelli to short term, small risk contracts. These are former All-Star players mostly coming off injury years, so why not bring them on board for a season? If they come back to form, great, and if not, they’re off the books for 2010.
Where the strength of the farm system is concerned, you don’t need to look any further than this season’s upcoming trade deadline. Any available player, whether it’s Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, or perhaps Victor Martinez and even Adrian Gonzalez (unlikely at this juncture), can be had by the Red Sox, if it’s a price they’re willing to pay. And the 2009 major league roster would barely be affected. Not to say that they’re definitely going to go dump Clay Buccholz and Jed Lowrie off in Toronto tomorrow, but they could if they decided it made sense.
And really, as a somewhat impartial observer (being a Mets fan), this is what makes me most envious of the Red Sox under Theo’s regime: a strong major league roster, incredible pitching depth, a huge payroll, and an embarrassment of riches in the farm system to bring up, or to swap for a key star player if the right opportunity presents itself. That’s the kind of situation any fan would hope for their team.
These factors shouldn’t be taken for granted. Think about the Twins, and their inability to retain Johan Santana, or the pending negotations to keep hometown hero Joe Mauer on the team. Or the Marlins, and their remarkable ability to constantly cycle in young premium talent, but with no payroll to supplement or retain that roster. Or even the Rays, who would love to trade from within their system to make a deal for a Cliff Lee type player right now, but probably can’t because they don’t have payroll space. Not to mention my beloved Mets, and the current mess in their front office.
Compared to the other 29 teams in the league, I’d say it’s Theo and the Red Sox who have the complete package right now. They have the ability to shape the franchise as they please, retain the players they want, and bring in the players they need, from either the trade or free agent markets.
If karma exists, Red Sox fans are getting repaid this century for all their suffering in the last one.
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Five Baseball Things I Was Wrong About This Winter
Posted by: | CommentsEven though I write for a blog and embrace the opinionated platform that comes with it, I’m actually a fairly humble guy. Kind of a contradiction in this format though, where the bigger and bolder your opinions are, the more attention your posts get.
So, in an effort to keep things honest, I’m going to touch on five baseball beliefs I held this year, which have been proven dead wrong. Most of these have to do with preseason predictions, so they’re not all tied directly to posts on this here blog. But hey, a little “I was wrong” never hurt anyone.
1. The Detroit Tigers will end up in last place this year.
I was absolutely, 100% convinced before the season started that Detroit would have another poor year, much like their disappointing 2008 campaign. Anyone in earshot of me heard my bold prediction that Detroit would be packing it up at the deadline, selling Miguel Cabrera to the highest bidder. And I was obviously wrong.
What happened? The short version is Edwin Jackson finally harnessing his potential, Rick Porcello living up to the hype this early in his career, and Justin Verlander bouncing back from last year’s lackluster season. With those three at the top of the rotation, Miguel Cabrera having his usual fantastic season, and Brandon Inge doing his best impression of a slugging third baseman, the Tigers are currently on top of the AL Central.
That being said, there’s some room for regression here. Cabrera and Inge are the only two batters with an OPS+ significantly higher than 100 (the “average” mark) this year, with Granderson and Larish at slightly above average. Everyone else on the team is well below that mark, which is not a good sign. However, the Tigers had a massive makeover from last year’s “1000 runs” prediction (which turned out false). As a pretty big reaction, Detroit traded slugging for defense this winter, getting Adam Everett at short, and Gerald Laird behind the plate. Combined with Curtis Granderson in center, Inge at third and Cabrera playing first all year, the defense behind their remarkable pitching is rock solid.
If Detroit’s pitching holds up, I expect they’ll look to get a bat or two at the deadline to help at DH or left field. If they don’t, and say, the White Sox catch them, I’ll look pretty dumb.
2. Raul Ibanez was a poor signing by the Phillies.
All the signs were there. Howard and Utley are lefties, and Pat Burrell patrolled left field in Philadelphia while his right-handed bat broke up the lefties in the heart of the order. So when the Phillies went out and signed a 37 year old lefty to replace him, I was surprised. Being a Mets fan, I was doing a mental victory lap, having visions of Utley, Howard and Ibanez coming up in sequential order, where a lefty specialist like Pedro Feliciano could come into the game and get them out. I mean, of all the outfielders to sign, why this guy on this team?
What happened? Oops. In 2009, Ibanez has only led the National League in Total Bases, RBIs, Slugging, Runs Scored and Extra Base Hits. I’m not sure how much more you can do beyond that. I have to imagine that some of this slightly uncharacteristic power surge is coming from playing at Citizens Bank Bandbox, and I suppose being in “the weaker league” helps a bit too. But seriously, what Ibanez is doing this year, at his age is phenomenal. People in baseball talk about his character and work ethic, two major reasons why the Phillies went out of their way to sign him, even if he wasn’t the right “fit”. But when you’re hitting like he has, I’m pretty sure that’s the only “fit” you need.
3. The Tampa Bay Rays will make the playoffs again, squeezing out the Red Sox for the wild card.
It was hard to not get caught up in the fun of watching the Rays last year: seeing a bunch of young players win with airtight defense, good baserunning and great pitching made it hard to cheer against them (unless you were a Red Sox fan, really). Considering that they signed the aforementioned Pat Burrell to DH in the offseason, and have a young, talented core that will only improve as they get older, who could say they’d drop off from last year’s historic 97 win season?
Considering that the Yankees made moves to shore up the rotation with star players (and put Mark Teixeira at first for good measure), there was little doubt they’d repeat last year’s massive failure and disappointment of not making the playoffs (only in the eyes of Yankees fans with spoiled expectations, of course). So that would make the Red Sox the odd team out, and with some justification: shortstop has been unstable for a while now, Jason Varitek was far removed from making any sort of contribution with his bat, no one knew what Ortiz had left in the tank, Lowell is always an injury risk, Ellsbury would need to learn how to take a walk, and so on.
The saving grace for the Sox is theoretically their excess starting pitching inventory, with Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Penny pitching for the big league team, Buccholz and Masterson waiting in the wings, and Smoltz healing up. The starting pitching hasn’t worked out well thus far, but given their options and time, I’m sure the Sox will be ok in that department. Shortstop has been unstable as ever and Ortiz has completely fallen off the table, while Varitek has somehow found some power again, hitting ten home runs thus far.
What all this adds up to is the Red Sox in the thick of the AL East race, while the Rays are hanging around .500.
What happened? Very easy answer here: the bullpen.
The Rays have walked this unstable line since penning Troy Percival as their closer: knowing he’ll almost certainly be injured at some point during the year, they filled in with an “all hands on deck” bullpen last year, and all performed well. But bullpens are an unpredictable kind of beast, and this time around, the results have been much different. Percival, Howell, Nelson and Wheeler have received the lion’s share of innings pitched thus far, and Wheeler is leading the pack with a 5.50 ERA (the other three are doing worse, if you can imagine it).Very unfortunate for the rest of the team, as the hitting and starting pitching are still at an AL East winning level.
The absolute, most telling sign of this is the team’s Pythagorean winning percentage: if you look at just runs scored and runs allowed by the Rays so far this year, it’s an impressive 327-to-280. Good for a “Pythagorean Win-Loss Record” of 34-25: one that would put them right up there with the Sox and Yankees. Usually when there’s this much disparity between the records, the bullpen is to blame. By contrast, the Red Sox bullpen has been absolutely lights out thus far, helping prop up some of the team’s weaknesses at this stage, and keeping them in the hunt.
4. This might be Oakland’s year to unseat the Angels.
Biased or no, I get the sense that for most of this decade, unless you lived in Texas or the Pacific Northwest, you viewed the AL West as a two team race (often a one team race, really). So when the Angels failed to land Mark Teixeira or C.C. Sabathia, let Frankie Rodriguez go and settled for resigning Juan Rivera to shore up their hitting, one couldn’t help but think their stranglehold on the division would loosen. Meanwhile, Athletics GM and hero to stat-geeks worldwide Billy Beane saw an opportunity, and filled in the gaps for his team appropriately. In a bit of a shock, Matt Holliday was obtained in a trade from Colorado. Follow this with some free agent signings for veterans to round out the offense, combine with your young pitching, and you very well may have a contender. Jason Giambi was brought in to provide veteran leadership and his usual OBP/Slugging combination, while Orlando Cabrera’s steady, if not unspectacular presence would be an upgrade over the disappointing Bobby Crosby.
What happened? Well, the offense has turned out to still be a black hole. Matt Holliday had an incredibly slow start, causing some to assume he was simply another Coors Field product: he’s since turned it around a bit, but not with the kind of production that can carry a team. Giambi and Cabrera are showing their age, and not contributing much of significant value. Meanwhile, Oakland’s young pitching continues to develop (Dallas Braden and Josh Outman in particular are having great years), and will likely get better with experience. But this isn’t their season.
You have to at least give Beane credit for trying: the only risk he put up in this gamble was the combined $9.25 million he’s paying Giambi and Cabrera this year (both are signed to a one year deal), and the prospects he shuffled off to get Holliday. And Holliday will either get traded for prospects again at the deadline, or Beane will hold onto him to grant his young pitchers some run support as they develop (and then collect the draft picks when Holliday leaves via free agency this coming winter). Either way, he took a chance and it didn’t work out, but the risk was minimal.
5. The Braves will be a non-factor.
It used to be that no matter who the Braves lost, whether it was Gary Sheffield one year, or J.D. Drew another year, they were always able to come out on top in the NL East, thanks in part to a robust farm system. But since the Mets broke out in 2006 and took away Atlanta’s remarkable 14 division championships streak, they haven’t been back, and that luster has quickly worn off.
So if anything, attitudes have perhaps bounced back the other way a bit. When Atlanta added Javier Vasquez and Derek Lowe to their rotation, it was impressive, but no one outside the South gave them much of a chance against the Mets or Phillies. The bullpen, which has been a major Achilles heel for the Braves in recent years, is drastically improved this time around (thanks to stable health more than anything else). It’s the offense that’s been weak: outside McCann and Chipper Jones, no one is contributing anything remarkable where plating runs is concerned.
What happened? Maybe it’s just paranoia speaking as a Mets fan who has seen them do it before, but considering they’re only 5.5 games out of first and just traded for a solid offensive piece in Nate McClouth, there’s some reason for concern here. Their rotation is good, their bullpen is good, and all they really need is to make another trade or two to shore up areas on the diamond that are supposed to produce slugging and on-base contributions, but are currently relatively weak (first base and corner outfield spots).
I still don’t believe they have what it takes to win the division: not with this lineup configuration, anyway. But there’s more potential today than there was last week, when McClouth wasn’t wearing a Braves uniform. Unlike recent years, I certainly don’t think they’ll be a doormat.
There’s plenty of time for baseball contemplation over the cold winter (well, here in San Diego it’s not that bad), and it’s always interesting to see how those assumptions pan out. Let’s check in again at the All-Star Break, so we can take a look at where things stand at the halfway point.
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Where Will Jake Peavy Go?
Posted by: | CommentsThe economy’s influence is being felt everywhere, and baseball is no exception. For large market teams like the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Cubs, the impact isn’t quite as big: after all, many of these teams have their own television networks for starters, not to mention a larger pool of fans to draw revenue from. Here in San Diego, things are a bit different. Attendance marks are reaching historic lows for Petco Park this season, which speaks to the quality of the team as much as the economy.
No single move signaled this change more than San Diego icon Trevor Hoffman’s departure to Milwaukee in the winter. I can tell you firsthand that no matter how badly the Padres were playing, people still came to games hoping to hear Hell’s Bells and see Trevor come in to notch yet another save on his Hall of Fame resume. San Diego didn’t put forth a huge effort to sign him, and while it was sad to see him go, Trevor’s hissy fit during his last free agent contract in 2005 prepared both the fans and Padres management for this scenario (Trevor, insulted by the offer at the time, reportedly went to the clubhouse and made a scene by cleaning out his locker).
Similarly, Khalil Greene’s salary was dumped on the Cardinals. Brian Giles however, was retained: faced with the option of buying him out for $3 million or picking him up for 2009 at $9 million, the team decided it was worth the $6 million difference to have a veteran presence on the team (and we’d assume they’ll look to trade him at the deadline). Giles has no-trade provisions in his contract, however, so he may opt to stay in his hometown and finish the season in a relaxed environment (as opposed to the pressure of a pennant chase and playoff run in a major market).
Even though the economy will be blamed, I’ll give the Padres credit on this: they just weren’t going to contend this year, so why spend the money on aging veterans? Better to restock and reload than try to win with a squad that had its moments, but just isn’t going to get it done in 2009. Or 2010, for that matter. Sure, it may irritate casual fans to see the team not spending money on improving this year, but in the long run, this is the way to go.
Which brings us to Jake Peavy. Cy Young award winner, and an elite pitcher over the last five years. He’s also 28 years old and owed $52 million from 2010-2012. When you consider that it’ll probably be a few years until the Padres are contenders again, it makes sense to trade Peavy, which achieves two goals for the team: get back top young prospects who can help make a future Padres team better, while freeing up salary to do the same. And although Peavy is a top pitcher, clearly one of the best, his effectiveness lies in his fastball. As he gets up there in age, the velocity will naturally decline. So the time to trade him is now.
Assuming his slow start gets evened out (and there’s no reason to think otherwise), Peavy is likely to be the catch of the trade deadline. As teams gear up for the playoffs, being able to put another ace in your pocket can make the difference between going home early (sorry Cubs fans), or raising a championship banner.
Here’s a look at the teams most likely to be in on this summer’s Peavy sweepstakes. Keep in mind that to even consider this move, a team needs to be in a position to make the playoffs (with one exception, see below), needs to have quality prospects to offer back to the Padres, and has to be able to take on payroll.
It’s also critical to note that most trade deadline deals like this one are typically a “rental”, as a player goes from a losing team to a contender, right before heading to free agency. Carlos Beltran with the Astros in 2004 and CC Sabathia with the Brewers last year are two good recent examples of this. The team that gets Peavy will be able to hold onto him for much longer, making the investment, particularly when it comes to prospects, easier to handle.
One more factor to consider? Peavy has a no-trade clause, so he’ll need to personally approve a deal before it happens.
Chicago Cubs: Peavy nearly went to the Cubs this winter; in fact, for a few days it practically seemed like a done deal. But both teams were in the process of being sold, making such a contract hard to move at the time. The Cubs are an aging team with a closing window of opportunity (one that has really already started to close; see Derrek Lee’s decline and Aramis Ramirez’s injury for starters), so the Peavy deal still makes sense. If Rich Harden can stay healthy and effective, and if Big Carlos Zambrano can avoid decline (pitching 200+ IP in five straight years before you turn 27 can do that to you), Peavy would be a nice addition.
A lot of “ifs” in there, and while it would be in the Cubs best interest to act, you can’t help but wonder if they’re still the best match now that the season is underway.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Thanks to a certain, recent 50 game suspension, the Dodgers now have an extra $7 million or so at their disposal. Having room for Peavy would be the ultimate way to make lemonade out of lemons. Behind rising star and young ace Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers have the reliable, if unspectacular Randy Wolf. Beyond that, Clayton Kershaw, who at age 21 probably needs some more experience to harness his talent. And then minor league guys like James McDonald and Eric Stults (who may end up being solid contributors), coupled with injured veterans like Hiroki Kuroda and Jason Schmidt.
A move for Peavy would stabilize the rotation, and gear up the team for a run at the playoffs, when they’ll also have their controversial slugger back in the fold.
New York Yankees: If we’re talking about a team looking to dump salary, you have to imagine the Yankees will at least take a look. Granted, they fortified the rotation with Sabathia and Burnett this off-season, but Wang looks lost, Pettitte is looking older, and many fans are eager to see Joba stabilize the bullpen. Trading for Peavy would all but guarantee the latter, not to mention giving the Yankees one of the more impressive rotations in the league for years to come.
The only issue would be whether or not Brian Cashman is willing to trade his prospects, something he wasn’t willing to do a few years ago when Johan Santana was available. And would Peavy want to move to the American League, not to mention New York? Considering how the new stadium has played so far, Peavy might not want to deal with the anti-Petco on the east coast.
New York Mets: The Mets have the prospects to pull off such a deal, not to mention the need in their rotation. With Oliver Perez (and his $36 million contract) in pitching purgatory, the Mets have John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez behind the spectacular Johan Santana. Not the most stable or reliable group of starters. It’s a great fit for Peavy, but by most accounts, the Mets have reached their payroll limit. Otherwise, they would have made a bigger play for Manny Ramirez or Orlando Hudson this winter.
Things may have changed by this summer, with the Mets’ need for pitching stronger, and Delgado/Wagner’s contracts coming off the books in 2010. Omar Minaya has a track record of pulling off deals when the Mets weren’t even considered (see the trade for Putz as setup man soon after they traded for K-Rod to close), so don’t be surprised if he does it again. Also, in contrast to the Yanks’ new stadium, CitiField is playing like an east coast version of Petco so far.
Milwaukee Brewers: They did it last year with Sabathia, and might do it again this year with Peavy. Wouldn’t that be something, a Peavy/Hoffman reunion at Miller Park? The Brewers are typically not the kind of team to spend lots of money, but by most accounts they offered Sabathia a 5 year, $100 million contract to retain his services this past winter. Not enough to outbid the Yankees or the larger market teams in California, but it does show that they have the need for an ace, and are willing to spend money to get one.
If Yovanni Gallardo stays healthy, and the Brewers continue to play well, you have to consider them in the mix here. The Brewers also have a cast of strong position players to offer, both in the minors and on the major league squad, who have solid potential but are often miscast defensively. The Padres would be happy to obtain some of them, and put them into roles where they can prosper.
Washington Nationals: Am I crazy? Perhaps. But the Nationals’ biggest issue right now is pitching. Slot Strasburg behind Peavy, put John Lannan into the #3 slot, and suddenly you have a serious rotation. The Nationals have also shown they have money and are willing to spend it: they were in on Mark Teixeira until the Yankees finally outbid them, and threw $20 million at Adam Dunn soon after, certainly for reasons other than contending this year. Such a move would not be for this season, but between this move and some smart decisions in the winter, they could suddenly become contenders in the competitive NL East for 2010.
Los Angeles Angels: After losing out on retaining Teixeira’s services (sensing a trend here?), the Angels surprised most by going after Sabathia next. Given that their pitching is strong, and the offense is what needs some help, this was looked at as an odd move. If the Angels still have this philosophy, and would prefer another ace over a bat, you have to think they’ll be sending some scouts down I-5 to take a look at Peavy. Presumably, Peavy wouldn’t mind staying in Southern California either.
Teams that probably won’t be involved, and why:
Atlanta Braves: Being an Alabama native, Peavy made it known that he’d approve a trade to the Braves the first time this trade carousel went around. But given their lack of offense and mediocre start, unless they can made up ground against the Phillies, Mets and Marlins, it’s doubful Peavy will want to go from one losing team to another.
Houston Astros: Another preferred team close to Peavy’s hometown, but they’re in even worse shape than the Braves these days. Not likely to happen, especially if the Astros wisely wake up, and start rebuilding for the future themselves.
Texas Rangers: Yes, they’re contending now, desperately need pitching, and they’re a team in the South. But no pitcher in his right mind would choose to pitch half his games in Arlington, a place where home runs are plentiful, and pitching careers go to die.
Kansas City Royals: Ownership has made a commitment to raise payroll, and long suffering Royals fans would be energized by a Greinke/Peavy 1-2 punch that would be the envy of the league. However, if the Royals are still contending at the deadline, their priority should be offense, and more offense. The rotation is not their issue.
And finally, one team that could go either way…
Boston Red Sox: Ever dangerous in the trade market, the Sox always seem to have prospects and payroll available to take advantage of a situation when it presents itself. However, in this case, conventional wisdom says their pitching depth is too great for them to contemplate adding Peavy to the fold. Aside from proven pitchers like Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka and Wakefield, they have kids with potential in Masterson and Buchholz. Throw into the mix low risk, high reward veterans in Brad Penny and John Smoltz, and it becomes clear that the Sox practically have enough pitching depth for two teams this year.
However, Theo Epstein is very savvy, and pounces on an opportunity when he sees it. Case and point, his pursuit of Mark Teixeira this past winter. The Sox certainly didn’t have an outstanding need for the switch-hitting slugger, with Youkilis at first. But, they saw the situation as an opportunity to improve long-term, planning to shift Youk to third, leaving Mike Lowell the odd man out, presumably to be traded.
So, even though the Sox have less of a need for Peavy than practically any other team in the league this year, they may jump at the opportunity to do so anyway (especially if Lester and Beckett continue to underperform).
Being only a week or so into May, a lot can change between now and the trade deadline. Teams that look like buyers now might become sellers, aces can get injured, and so on. But something we can more or less guarantee is that Peavy will be heading out of San Diego, and will change the complexion of a division race and the playoffs. Given that his contract keeps him under control for a while, the prospect package San Diego gets in return should be hefty, helping them gear up for the next solid Padres squad. And with Peavy’s no-trade clause thrown into the mix, plenty of drama should result before a deal is made.
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Patience With Young Pitching, Part 2
Posted by: | CommentsFollowing up on yesterday’s post, let’s take a look at some current pitchers who had similar hype to Hughes, their history, and current outlook.
Zack Greinke: Kansas City Royals
Current Age: 25
Drafted: First round, 6th overall in 2002 from Apopka HS (Apopka,FL)
Highlight: The 2009 season.
Adversity: 5-17 record with a 5.80 ERA in 2005. Struggled with social anxiety disorder in 2006.
Without a doubt, as April winds down, no one has turned more heads in baseball so far this season than Zack Greinke. He managed to start the season by not giving up a run in his first four starts, including two complete game shutouts. He’s struck out many, walking few along the way. And though it’s far too early to make such predictions, there isn’t a soul alive who can tell you he’s not the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young this year with a straight face. He’s practically brought hope to the Kansas City fan base on his own, a feat that speaks volumes given their recent history.
Of course, it wasn’t always easy for Greinke. The Royals brought him up to the majors in 2004 at age 20, and though he held his own and produced, 2005 was a train wreck, leading to a lost 2006 campaign with the aforementioned anxiety issues (some speculated he might leave the game altogether at the time). He came back and had solid campaigns in 2007 and 2008, leading to this year’s big breakout. Kansas City now has an ace they can build around, and while there’s certainly some room for regression here, it’s very doubtful that he will return to the lackluster performances of his earlier years.
Felix Hernandez: Seattle Mariners
Current Age: 23
Drafted: Undrafted free agent out of Venezuela, signed July 4th, 2002.
Highlight: “King Felix” throws a one-hitter, out-dueling Daisuke Matsuzaka, spoiling the Japanese import’s Fenway debut on the national stage.
Adversity: Injuries, conditioning concerns and inconsistency.
“King Felix” couldn’t have come up with more hype. The U.S.S. Mariner blog created the nickname, and it stuck (along with it, some fairly heavy expectations). Certainly, this hype didn’t appear out of thin air. Hernandez dominated A ball, and skipped Double-A to go right to Triple-A, not missing a beat. His 2.25ERA and 110 strikeouts in 84.1 innings were enough to convince Mariners brass that the kid didn’t have anything left to prove in the minors, and it’s hard to argue with them. Matching the hype however, is another story.
By any rational measure, Felix has done “well” thus far. He produced at just below league average at age 20, and has pitched between 190-200 innings from 2006-2008, with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2007-2008. And while he’s shown flashes of greatness (see the Fenway game above), those who expected him to come up and become a phenom overnight have been greatly disappointed. Doc Gooden comparisons were made while he was in the minors, so fans more or less hoped he’d come up and immediately start winning Cy Youngs out the gate. It’s easy to understand why Mariners fans may be impatient at this point, but it helps to remember that he’s still only 23 years old. And there is plenty of hope in the present tense: he’s started off well this year, going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 36 K’s in 34 innings.
Clay Buchholz: Boston Red Sox
Current Age: 23
Drafted: First round, 42nd overall in 2005 from Angelina College (Lufkin, Texas)
Highlight: Throwing a no-hitter at Fenway Park in his second major league start on September 1, 2007.
Adversity: A horrible 2008 campaign, followed by a demotion to Pawtucket, where he’s remained.
If you really want to pump up the hype machine, throw a no-hitter in your second major league start. Red Sox fans must have been doing backflips after seeing what this hyped prospect accomplished. And to be fair, New England knows its baseball: it’s not like this came out of nowhere. In the minor leagues, Buchholz has been nothing less than a strikeout machine, fanning 429 batters in 359 innings to date (not to mention a 2.43 ERA). So we’ll forgive Boston fans for getting excited.
That being said, he threw his no-hitter at age 22, and one game does not make a career. Although he did throw a complete game shutout against the Rays the following season, 2008 as a whole was more or less a disaster. Buchholz went on the DL with a finger injury, and when he returned, his ERA ballooned to 6.75. This led to a demotion to the minors, where he currently resides.
What caused such a steep decline? To hear it from the man himself, the pressure of the big leagues may have been too much: “I’ve never been one to say the pressure was too much for me, but I’ve felt like I’ve had a lot of weight on my shoulders just trying to be perfect and trying to do everything as well as I could to help this team win.” Not to say that a no-hitter is ever a bad thing (believe me, as a Mets fan we’re still waiting for our first), but it can create a “nowhere to go but down” mentality in a fragile, young psyche.
Although the same lessons learned from the pitchers mentioned above (and Hughes) can be applied here, there’s one major difference with Buchholz: with the rate that the Red Sox have produced talent from their farm (Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Lester, etc.), and their incredible pitching depth, there is far less pressure on Buchholz. In Kansas City and Seattle, the franchises have seen better days, and the fans are looking for their system to produce someone, anyone who can signal a change in their fortunes. Even with Hughes and the Yankees, the fans want to see their system produce a bonafide ace (especially to shut up fans who complain about them simply buying pitching, as they did with Sabathia and Burnett).
But in Boston, none of this pressure applies. They have tremendous rotation depth, and a system that has churned out star players the last few years. If you ask a Sox fan, I bet they’ll mention that while they’d like to see Buchholz succeed, even if he doesn’t, it won’t be viewed as the end of the world for their franchise by any means. And when you’re 23, already have a major league no-hitter under your belt and possess a great fastball, along with an elite changeup and curveball, that’s a good spot to be in. Good things should come to those who wait in Beantown.
Of course, there are far more examples around the league, and I’m sure I’ll revisit this topic as the season goes on. The Pirates pitching staff, if they continue their current run, warrant a post all their own. Jobamania, while running strong, certainly set expectations sky high, and the issue of whether he should be in the rotation or the bullpen is one of the biggest ongoing debates in sports bars across New York.
At the end of the day, let’s remember that greatness by itself is hard to come by. Debuting with greatness and maintaining that level of success? Practically impossible. A little patience goes a long way, so please take a deep breath the next time your team’s hyped future ace comes up from the minors, and doesn’t immediately meet your expectations.
To be fair, for every Zack Greinke there’s a Kris Benson. But that’s another post in itself.
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