Archive for Boston Red Sox
Yankees in Six – Again?
Posted by: | CommentsWell I, for one, certainly hope not. But we’ll just have to wait and see how the 2010 MLB season pans out. So many players, so many deals, so little time to put all the pieces together. But somehow, those 30-something-year-old big league GMs find a way. They always do; just ask Theo Epstein or Josh Byrnes. Or that seasoned 42-year-old brainiac by the name of Brian Cashman.
When I conjure up images from last year’s postseason, I can’t help but see Alex Rodriguez actually finding his groove and helping the Yankees claim their 40th AL Pennant and 27th World Series title, albeit the team’s first with A-Rod on board (six years in the making). I’m not a big A-Rod fan, never have been, but I had to actually give the guy his due based on his impressive postseason last year. I don’t like him for several reasons, but basically it boils down to these two: 1.) I’m a lifelong Red Sox fan; and 2.) he’s a pampered superstar who doesn’t like getting his hands dirty, literally. He is the anti-Mike Lowell in that respect, and any guy making $25 million a season to play baseball should be willing to get his uniform dirty once in a while.
Getting back to A-Rod’s resurrection from postseason failure, he earned a smidgen of my respect with last season’s turnaround. I mean, here was a guy who couldn’t find his bat, much less his swing, every time the postseason rolled around. He earned the nickname “The Cooler” since he always seemed to go cold at the most inopportune times for his team. But, lo and behold, he managed to put all the pieces together last fall by batting .378 in the playoffs and launching six bombs. Maybe it was gal-pal Kate Hudson’s influence? Perhaps she was the one guiding him on follow-through and consistency. Or perhaps it was Captain Derek Jeter’s stellar season (.334 with 18 dingers) coupled with Mark Texeira’s moon shots (39 of ‘em) and 38-year-old southpaw Andy Pettitte staying intact for the entire haul and notching 14 wins. And then again, maybe it was just Joe Girardi’s destiny, seeing as how he was already sporting No. 27 on his back. Whatever the reason, the Yankees won it all last year and are back on top of the baseball world.
But will they be there in 2010? In June, Pettitte turns 39, while Jeter turns 36. A month later, A-Rod turns 35. And a month after that, Jorge Posada celebrates his 39th birthday. These guys aren’t getting any younger. And the fact that World Series MVP Hideki Matsui signed in the offseason with the dreaded Halos of Anaheim could spell a different ending to this season’s merry-go-round. But then again, with the likes of CC Sabathia on the hill, Texeira at first, Robinson Cano covering second and the newly arrived Curtis Granderson patrolling center, chances are the Yankees will at least be in contention. And after all, isn’t that all anybody can ask for? Unless, of course, your last name is Steinbrenner.
Who might bump them off in the AL, you ask? Who else, but my beloved Sox, of course. By picking up John Lackey to shore up the starting rotation, as well as signing veteran center fielder Mike Cameron and Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre, the Sox are stocking up for a season-long battle with the Bronx Bombers. The acquisition of Cameron moves the speedy Jacoby Ellsbury from center to left, which actually improves Boston’s defense with any ricochets off the Green Monster after Jason Bay’s disappointing bolt to that other New York team. And backstop Victor Martinez will continue to get more comfortable with Fenway’s faithful so 2010 definitely looks like it’s shaping up to be another barnburner in the AL East.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot; those pesky Rays aren’t going away quietly. Yep, should be a doozy this year. Can’t wait.
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Baseball’s Winter Meetings Making the Rumor Mill Spin
Posted by: | CommentsOn November 4th 2009, the New York Yankees captured their 27th World Championship against the Philadelphia Phillies. Since then, if you’re a fan of the other 28 teams, it’s been a slow, uneventful winter.
If you’ve been bored by the lack of activity on the baseball front, no need to worry: big things are going to start happening over the next few days. The Winter Meetings started today in Indianapolis, where General Managers meet with each other to talk trades, and agents come looking to get contracts for their available players. It’s a whirlwind of activity, and being in the age of Twitter, all it takes is one guy to spot two executives talking in the lobby, send a Tweet, and get the rumors rolling.
The possibilities are endless and there are thirty different agendas at play. Here are the big stories to track over the next few days:
Halladay Sweepstakes 2.0
When this summer’s trade deadline rolled around, Roy Halladay was the center of attention throughout sports talk radio and the blogosphere. Any fan of a contending team wanted to grab him to solidify a championship run, and the Blue Jays knew they could get back a ton of prospects in return to help revitalize the franchise down the road.
Unfortunately for Blue Jays fans who were looking forward to starting a much needed overhaul, the asking price in prospects was too high. The deadline passed, Halladay stayed in Toronto, and the decision proved to be the final nail in the coffin for General Manager J.P. Ricciardi’s run. The Jays had asked for too much, lost an opportunity, and now had nothing to show for their star pitcher with only one year left on his contract.
And so we’ve come to the subsequent winter, where the Blue Jays more or less need to trade Halladay. If they thought it was tough to maximize their value for him this summer, they’re going to find it’s even more difficult now. A trade this summer would have meant his new team got him for the stretch run to the playoffs, had his services in the postseason, and would get to bring him back for the final year on his contract in 2010. Now, a trade partner is only getting one year back.
This is creating a situation similar to what we saw with Johan Santana and the Mets in 2008. Santana had one year left and a no-trade clause: so while the Twins were looking to get prospects back before he departed, Santana was able to use his leverage to pick a landing spot that would give him a hefty contract extension. The end result was four prospects going to Minnesota, while Santana got a six year, $137.5 million extension to get his big payday.
It’s now about two years later, and Halladay is the one with one year left on his contract, and no-trade control. Whereas Santana more or less demanded an extension, thereby narrowing the Twins partners to the major market teams would could afford that contract, Halladay isn’t necessarily against the idea of pitching somewhere for one year, riding out his contract and becoming a free agent. But the Blue Jays are going to ask for top prospects in return, and if you’re the trade partner, you’re going to want a bit more than the one year of service in return.
Making this more complicated is the fact that Halladay will turn 33 years old next season . . . which means that you’ll be hard pressed to find a team willing to give up the level of prospects the Jays are asking for, plus a contract extension that would keep him employed at a high price through something like age 38 or 39. Ricciardi really painted them into a corner here.
The easy money bet is that he ends up on a major market team that could absorb the cost of his extension and hope for the best in his late 30s: this means the usual suspects like the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels and Dodgers (though there is a strong feeling in the rumor mill that Halladay does not want to play on the west coast long term). My guess is that Boston will be his most likely destination, though we shouldn’t rule out a possibility for a team to roll the dice, trade for Halladay’s services for one year and make a run for it, then let him hit the open market.
The Big Three: Holliday, Bay and Lackey
Since the winter started, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and John Lackey have been getting most of the attention as the top prizes in this year’s free agent market. Holliday and Bay are both professional hitters who play left field, which actually gives teams with that need an option between two very good players. Bay is slightly older and hits for slightly less average, and is considered the worse defender of the two (though this is still a matter of debate in some circles). However, Bay has “proven” himself in Boston’s large market, while Holliday has only played in Colorado, St. Louis and Oakland (where he got off to a very slow start in his only American League experience). At the end of the day, Holliday will get a slightly longer and bigger contract, as the perception is that he’s a player you can build around and commit 6-7 years to. However, Bay is no slouch, and will give whatever team trades for him a reliable hitter in the middle of their lineup.
Lackey is the only clear cut “ace” of this free agent crop, though he’s fought minor injuries the last two years, and projects slightly below a #1 starter. Still, he’s earned his reputation as a tough, fiery competitor, and should be a welcome addition to any pitching staff. Lackey’s agent has used A.J. Burnett’s five year, $82.5 million contract as a benchmark his client should be able to eclipse (though I believe Burnett’s contract is more an example of the Yankees overspending, rather than his actual value). Still, many around baseball seem convinced Lackey will get a $100 million contract, and I think he’ll get close. Unlike the competition for Holliday and Lackey, many contending teams could use a reliable, playoff tested starter like Lackey and will make a play for him: including the Yankees themselves.
Seattle Building a Contender
It’s easy to forget that the Mariners operate like a big market team, with a payroll hovering around the $100 million mark the last few years. It’s just that they haven’t spent that money wisely.
This winter, the mistakes of past management start to come off the books, as the hefty contracts for Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Miguel Batista and others clear off (sadly, they are still stuck with Carlos Silva at $23 million for the next two years). New GM Jack Zduriencik impressed in his first year on the job in 2009, and now that he made the right steps to build the team back up, he may be seeing a prime opportunity to get back into the playoffs. He’s already stolen the division rival Angels’ longtime leadoff man Chone Figgins to take over at third base. Combine his skills with Ichiro’s, and now you’ve got what might be one of the best 1-2 punches of average, speed and on-base skills this side of Jeter and Damon. Combine with Jack Wilson at shortstop, and the left side of the infield isn’t going to let much through.
With all the money they now have to spend, the Mariners aren’t done at Figgins. Seattle will need some power to bring in those baserunners, and nearby British Columbia is where native Canadian Jason Bay was born and raised. The team also doesn’t have a commitment at DH, a position that is likely to have more players than open jobs for the second year in a row. Hideki Matsui is considered the most likely player to fill this role, thanks to Seattle’s close ties to Japan. If you saw the World Series, you know Matsui still has something left in the tank, though his next employer will want to keep him away from the outfield.
Oh, and if they’re not done there, the team has also been rumored to be going after John Lackey. The Mariners may very well snap the Angels’ run of winning the division five of the last six years, using their own former players against them.
Meet the Mess
If you’re a Mets fan, the 2009 season began with high hopes from Putz and K-Rod reinforcing the bullpen . . . but things quickly deteriorated as injuries stacked up, and team morale sinked to new lows. Reyes, Beltran and Santana are all expected to show up at Spring Training healthy and ready to compete, but expectations are lower this time around (especially with the already strong Phillies starting 2010 with Cliff Lee as their ace).
It’s not all doom and gloom, however. The Mets still have some of the top premiere players in the game in David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana and Frankie Rodriguez. Unfortunately, it’s the supporting cast that needs some serious work. With a brand new stadium asking top New York prices for tickets, and the juggernaut in the Bronx overshadowing the team from Queens, the pressure will be on General Manager Omar Minaya and Manager Jerry Manuel to perform. If not, both will find themselves out of a job by this time next year.
The Mets have been linked to Matt Holliday and John Lackey before the World Series even ended, but it seems more likely that the team will spread around their money instead: bringing in players like Joel Pinero, Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. In past years, the Mets always looked to make the “big splash” in the free agent market to show commitment to fans when they fell short. And while the public relations department would probably like a distraction to wash away the memories of 2009, the strategy of building around their talented core with a higher quantity of support talent as opposed to another expensive star or two makes far more sense.
Quick Hits
The Braves’ crowded rotation could mean a new bat. Atlanta didn’t wait until the meetings to fortify their bullpen, signing veteran relievers Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to close out their games. Between Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Kenshin Kawakami, Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez and Jair Jurrjens, they have one quality pitcher too many in their rotation. Most expect them to move Javier Vasquez, who had a fantastic 2009, has a reasonable contract and could net a big bat.
Tigers looking to deal. Management swears they’re not trying to slash payroll, but the Tigers have been very loud about their desire to trade both Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson this winter. The Central is winnable as always, but pay close attention to what the team gets in return. The Tigers insist they have no desire to trade Miguel Cabrera, but if they go younger and look to rebuild, he can’t factor into their future plans. If Detroit is out of the running this summer, expect the Red Sox to come calling for the consistent Cabrera.
A-Gone staying home? It made all the sense in the world for the Padres to trade Adrian Gonzalez this past summer. When it didn’t happen, the common perception was that he’d be dealt come winter. However, if you believe the buzz coming out of San Diego, the star first baseman is going to stay put . . . at least through the summer trade deadline, when the rumor mill will start all over again. Gonzalez would fit the Red Sox so well that a trade seems inevitable, but it may take a while longer to happen.
Who wants to play with Milton Bradley? When the troubled outfielder got a big contract from the Cubs following a tremendous 2008 season, many within baseball were skeptical. Well, here we are one year later, and the Cubs have made it clear that come hell or high water, Bradley has seen his last days in a Cub uniform (with two years to go on his contract). The Rangers and Rays seem to be the most likely destinations, with Chicago picking up much of the tab.
We’re in the age of new media, so enjoy the Winter Meetings as they happen. Root for your team to make solid decisions, but try not to get too wrapped up in every rumor Tweet you see. And expect the unexpected: every year, there seems to be at least one major move no one sees coming.
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Golf Anyone?
Posted by: | CommentsThe 2009 MLB season came to a crashing halt for the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. A stunning, 7-6, loss at the hands of the visiting Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was the final blow to the Bosox, who were swept in three straight games by the Halos in their A.L. Divisional Series
Winners of the American League Wild Card this year (Boston “won” the berth by losing six of their last seven games of the regular season), the Red Sox meandered into the postseason to face the high-flying A.L. West Champion Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Granted the Bosox won 95 games this year, but something wasn’t quite right in Beantown. The Fenway Faithful watched this season as the rival New York Yankees secured the A.L. East flag with a MLB-leading 103-59 record and a barrage of home run power not seen since the days of Ruth, Gehrig and Murderer’s Row. Boston had earned its sixth playoff nod in seven years, but the mood of the team and its fans was almost ho-hum.
The Angels, meanwhile, seemed to be on a mission. Winners of 97 games during the regular season, the Anaheim gang seemed ready to tackle the big, bad Bosox this time around. Having lost 11 of their previous 12 postseason meetings against Boston, the Angels had nothing to lose. And they played like it. Their pitching rose to the top and silenced the Boston bats like nobody’s business. And Anaheim’s near-season-long dedication and tribute to rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart – killed by a drunk driver in April – seemed to give the Halos even more incentive to win this time around. To win in dramatic fashion in the clinching Game 3 in Boston only made it all the sweeter for the Angels and their fans.
Trailing two games to none in the ALDS, the Red Sox finally found a few fastballs they liked in Game 3. In fact, when all the dust had settled, Boston’s biggest batsmen – Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and Jason Bay – combined to go 3-for-32 for the series. But lo and behold, they actually built a 5-2 lead through seven innings and seemed poised to take the best-of-five series to a fourth game. In the top of the ninth, with a two-run (6-4) lead, two outs and nobody on, Boston relief ace Jonathan Papelbon simply forgot how to close the door. He gave up a crisp single to Erik Aybar to keep the Angels alive, and then walked Chone Figgins on a 3-2 pitch. Still two outs, mind you. But the pressure was mounting. Up strode former Yankee and newly christened Red Sox killer Bobby Abreu. Abreu sliced a looping line drive to left which careened off the Green Monster for a double, bringing in Aybar to make the score, 6-5. The tide was turning and Papelbon seemed overwhelmed by what was transpiring.
Up walked Torii Hunter to the plate. Dangerous to say the least, Boston’s pitching brain trust decided to walk Hunter to load the bases and take their chances with aging cleanup hitter Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad, the 2004 AL MVP, had not delivered an extra-base hit in his previous 69 postseason at-bats. But guess what? He delivered this time around.
On Papelbon’s first pitch to him – a knee-high fastball – Guerrero took a sweeping hack and drilled it into center field, dropping just in front of sprinting center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury to bring in both Figgins and Abreu. The Angels led, 7-6, and Fenway Park became deathly quiet. You could hear a pin drop. The 38,704 fans at Fenway stood in disbelief. They could see that destiny, at least this time around, was not going to be on their side. Maybe the Fenway ghosts from the 2004 and ‘07 campaigns – when the Red Sox won their sixth and seventh World Series titles – had used up all their black magic.
The Red Sox went down in order in the bottom half of the inning. They seemed ready for the winter break. And maybe it was only fitting that second baseman Dustin Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, made the last out. He lofted a pop-up to Aybar at short to bring Boston’s 2009 season to an abrupt end. You might as well go out with your feistiest player, right?
Who’s up for a round of 18? Maybe Papelbon.
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Fearless 2009 MLB Playoff Predictions
Posted by: | CommentsLiving in San Diego, we get used to spectacular weather. So it sounds a bit odd to say this, but I probably enjoy the fall out here more than any season. The warmth dies down just a bit, and I can wear my hoodie and/or leather jacket around for a few months. It’s just cool enough to make things cozy, but never cold enough that you’re freezing. So I trade in my shorts for jeans, drive around with the top down a bit less, and most importantly, enjoy postseason baseball.
Following yesterday’s Game 163 between the Tigers and Twins, it’s hard not to get excited. If you weren’t tuned in you missed an absolute classic, a game that showcased baseball at its best: everything on the line, a passionate and loud stadium, and a back-and-forth battle that went extra innings. Hopefully the rest of the fall can live up to that one game: given the outlook, I think we’re in for some great baseball over the next few weeks.
Here’s a overview of what we have lined up, and of course, my predictions.
NLDS: Rockies vs. Phillies
The Rockies started the season looking like not much of a threat at all, especially when you consider how the Dodgers came screaming out the gate. So go figure, you trade in Clint Hurdle for Jim Tracy, and suddenly it’s 2007 all over again: not quite the same ridiculous run, but enough of a sharp turnaround to warrant attention.
Comparing this year’s version to the 2007 National League pennant winners, I’d say they’ve made some major upgrades where position players are concerned. Chris Ianetta brings some slugging to the table (and a decent OBP for his position), Carlos Gonzalez is realizing his potential, and Dexter Fowler brings an added dynamic of speed to the team. You really have to give the Rockies credit: they scout and develop players exceptionally well. Troy Tulowitzki in particular may be the most underrated player in the game today, as he plays spectacular defense at shortstop, takes walks, and hits for plenty of power.
The Phillies are improved from last year’s World Championship version, with the exception of the bullpen. Their lineup offers very little breathing room, and is the only offense out of the four National League teams that can really match up with the American League juggernauts where slugging is concerned. But most importantly, the deadline acquisition of Cliff Lee gives the team a bonafide ace to put in front of Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton.
This series will really come down to two elements: the Rockies rotation, and the Phillies bullpen. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to evolve into a front line starter, and has the strikeout rate you want to see from a Game 1 playoff pitcher. Jorge De La Rosa would be the other strikeout specialist on the Rockies, but he’s out for the series with a groin injury. This is a huge blow to the Rockies’ chances, as they’ll probably need to slot Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel for games two and three.
Compared to Hamels, Happ and Blanton, you absolutely have to give the edge to the Phillies. Marquis and Hammel do not strike out a lot of batters, and their WHIPs are well in the 1.37 range. The Phillies will take their walks and hit the ball, which means that often enough, it’s heading out of the park to put some numbers on the board.
Yes, Brad Lidge has had his issues this year, but the rest of the Phillies bullpen is capable of picking up the slack. The Phillies are actually in the enviable position of having too many starters, so the bullpen will have plenty of guys who can throw multiple innings. Specifically, it looks like J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez will come on in relief for this five game series. Ryan Madson may not have the closer reputation necessarily, but he’s capable of shutting the door, at least for this series.
Prediction: Phillies in four.
NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
If not for some risky moves by the Cardinals front office to shore up the offense, this series would look much different. Luckily for St. Louis fans, Holliday is now backing up Pujols, providing some much needed protection. On paper, the lineup for the red birds should be solid, but recent production tells a different story. Julio Lugo hit .242 in September, and in the last twenty games Ludwick has hit .229, DeRosa .189, and Holliday only has one home run.
Compare to the Dodgers bats, and I think you need to give Los Angeles the edge. Yes, they don’t have Albert Pujols (no one else does, to be fair), but they scored 50 more runs this season. Pujols and Holliday are both better hitters than anyone the Dodgers have (save Manny, if he gets going), but the Dodgers have a more capable 1-through-8 batting order.
Of course, the key to this series isn’t the bats, but the Cardinals’ monster 1-2 punch of Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. They represent two of the National League’s best pitchers, and both already have a championship ring from 2006: so don’t expect either to be intimidated. In a short series, while I do think the Dodgers offense is better, it’s just going to be too difficult to put up three victories against this rotation.
Given the daunting task ahead of them, the Dodgers’ chance for success rests on Clayton Kershaw’s shoulders. The 21 year old has the strikeout talent to dominate in the postseason, but he’s had some poor starts as the regular season came to a close. He’s thrown 60+ innings more than last year, so you’re left to wonder how much he’ll have left in the tank at his age.
But if the endurance is there, he could potentially outduel Wainwright in Game 2, giving the Dodgers a chance to go after groundball specialist Joel Pinero in Game 3. And who knows, maybe the Cardinals bats will be stagnant for Game 1 against Randy Wolf. I still have to give the edge to the Cardinals, but Dodgers fans have some hope here.
Prediction: Cardinals in four.
ALDS: Yankees vs. Twins
Last night’s game was one of the best I’ve ever seen, and was a prime example of why baseball is such a great sport.
That being said, count me in with the rest of North America when I say there’s no way the Twins can beat the Yankees after that. They’re exhausted after playing 12 innings, and will get very little sleep before heading to the Bronx. The new Yankee Stadium is a friendly place for home run hitters, which is bad news for a team like the Twins with very little power. Even if the stadium plays short, I don’t expect the likes of Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Brendan Harris or Denard Span to be able to take advantage of this environment. If the Twins had Justin Morneau in the lineup I’d give them a chance, but they’ll be forced to play a different brand of baseball in New York, one they can’t compete at.
The Yankees however, will eat up the Twins starting rotation, hit plenty of home runs, and their bullpen will protect the leads. It’s been a great, inspiring run by Minnesota, but they are clearly overmatched here.
Prediction: Yankees in three.
ALDS: Angels vs. Red Sox
This series is becoming a rivalry of its own, with the Sox seemingly always getting the best of the Angels. Both teams have changed a bit in terms of strengths and weaknesses over the last few years, but the Sox have retained their dominant pitching, both in the rotation and the bullpen. As has become standard under the Theo regime, this will be what Red Sox Nation hangs its hopes on.
And to be fair, when you’re gunning for your third World Series championship of the decade, there are worse places to put your bets than on the arms of Lester, Beckett, Buccholz, Dice-K and Papelbon. The talent is still there but health is a bit of a question mark, with Beckett and Dice-K struggling through their share this year. But then again, both have earned a reputation as “big game” pitchers, and most fans expect they’ll ramp it up now that October is here.
The weakness of the Red Sox in this series has been highly publicized: the running game. Mike Scioscia loves to push aggression on the basepaths, and with Varitek and V-Mart tasked with throwing them out, the green light will be on like never before. Look for Figgins, Abreu and Hunter to steal early and often, while middle infielders Kendrick and Aybar will swipe their share as needed. But unlike Angels lineups of years past, this one has more than one dimension, and can hit home runs and take walks to go with the speed.
Lackey, Weaver and Kazmir are lined up to pitch for the Angels. Aside from Lackey’s age 23 run with the 2002 World Championship team, none of these Angels have the intimidating championship pedigree Lester and Beckett bring to the table. The Angels rotation actually comes into this series healthier and with less question marks, while the Sox come in with the potential for their guys to dominate. But, there’s also more potential for the Sox rotation to put up a bad start, especially with Beckett’s back issues. His Game 2 start will really be the key in this series. I expect all three Angels pitchers will give their team a chance to win, while there’s a lot more variance with what can happen to the Sox rotation, between good and bad extremes.
The big difference in this series will likely turn out to be the bullpen. This is not the lockdown Angels bullpen you’ve grown to fear, with leads confidently handed off to capable middle relievers, before the ball gets to Scot Shields and K-Rod. Brian Fuentes has 48 saves on the year, but also has a 1.40 WHIP. These late innings will be crucial, and if I’m an Angels fan, I’m biting my nails until that last out. In contrast, the Sox bullpen continues to be a major strength, and should be able to put away the game if given a lead.
It’ll be a very entertaining series, especially with the new dynamic of the Angels offense. Game 2 is going to be absolutely crucial, as a victory against Beckett will be needed to at least keep the series even headed back to Boston. If that happens, the Halos have a chance. But a strong bullpen is so important if you want to win a championship, and the difference between the teams is huge in that regard.
Prediction: Red Sox in four.
NLCS: Phillies vs. Cardinals
Once we expand to a seven game series, the 1-2 punch at the top of the Cardinals rotation becomes less dominant, as St. Louis will need to rely on their other starters. You still need to give the Cardinals the edge where the front of the rotation is concerned, but really, with Cliff Lee in the mix, it’s not a huge gap between the two teams. Speaking to the offense, again, Pujols and Holliday are great, but the rest leaves something to be desired. The Phillies leave very little room to breathe, and Cardinals pitchers will have their hands full.
The Cardinals need to win every game that Carpenter and Wainwright pitch. If the Phillies can win at least one of those, they’ll be headed to the World Series with a chance to repeat. Given a 1-in-4 chance, I like those odds.
Prediction: Phillies in seven.
ALCS: Yankees vs. Red Sox
Here we go again! Honestly, all I care about this postseason is seeing this rivalry once more to close out the decade: this time around, it’ll be spectacular. Yes, the drama of The Curse is gone, but that evens the playing field a bit, and actually puts a bit more pressure on the Yankees. After all the spending in the winter and the dominance in the regular season, it’s up to them to get the job done and even out the decade a bit following 2004 and 2007. It won’t be about curses or grandpappy seeing the Sox win it all just once, but rather, which team is better at baseball. Period. The level of talent on the field and the battle that’ll take place between both teams is all the drama I’ll need, personally.
I know, I’m sounding like an ESPN or FOX executive, or some of the mainstream press who seem to think baseball doesn’t exist outside New York and Boston. But I just love how these teams line up in 2009. The Sox probably have a better rotation, but who knows what Beckett will bring to the table? Will the back spasms do him in, or does he continue to be a Yankee killer? Can Dice-K return to form, or can Buccholz handle the pressure of the big stage? And it’s not like Sabathia, Burnett or even Pettitte are a sure thing on any given night. I honestly think it’s safe to say that in a 2009 Sox vs. Yankees ALCS, the rotations are structured in a way where any team can win on any given night: there’s no one dominant performer (say, Pedro of years gone by, or Schilling at his peak), and most of these starters are equally likely to craft a gem, or succumb to the opposing team’s offense.
Where bats are concerned, the Yankees obviously have the edge. With Teixeira at first, Abreu’s terrible range out of right field, Cano’s continued improvements and even Jeter doing much better with the glove, the Yankees are well equipped to play both sides of the field for a change. Both teams have good bullpens this year, but you still have to give the edge there to the Red Sox.
It’ll be an entertaining series if it happens, one that’ll slow down work productivity in the Northeast for a week or two. In the end, I think the Yankees offense is too much to handle, and for once, their pitching can hold up their end of things. Sure, Sabathia, Burnett, Joba and Pettitte are all capable of having a terrible start, but I don’t expect it’ll happen to all of them. And even in case of disaster, the Yankees are capable of digging themselves out of an early hole with their power, especially at home.
Prediction: Yankees in six.
World Series: Phillies vs. Yankees
Most Mets fans (myself included) will likely cheer for the Yankees in this scenario, and that’s saying something.
More seriously, both teams mirror each other a bit. They both have incredibly strong lineups, play in bandboxes, and have rotations that are strong, but can still be knocked around on a bad night. The Phillies would probably have the best starter in the series in Cliff Lee, who also has plenty of experience pitching against American League teams. For the Phillies to have a chance, they’d need to win both of Lee’s starts.
Rotations and defense are fairly comparable, but the Yankees have a better offense and a better bullpen. The Phillies are used to being able to bring the thunder and outslug their opponents when all else fails, but that’s a game the Yankees would be happy to play. Given the nature of both stadiums, you’d expect lots of home runs and big scoring games.
In the end, the Yankees are just too good. They could probably benefit from a bit more reliability in the rotation, but that’s really nitpicking considering their other strengths. If it comes down to Yankees and Phillies, the American League team will overmatch their National League counterpart, and beat them in a slugfest.
Prediction: Yankees in six.
What are your predictions? Comment here, or post yours to our Facebook page! I’m eager to hear your thoughts, as this is just one man’s opinion.
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48 Hours to Go
Posted by: | CommentsWe’re only two days away from the MLB trade deadline, and the divide between buyers and sellers has become very clear. A few weeks back, I went over my list of sellers at the deadline for both the National and American Leagues, and those teams are still in the same position. However, there’s one major element to this current market that I didn’t foresee; I had predicted that we would see very little action due to the economic climate, and that teams would be unwilling to take on payroll. This is still the case, but it’s actually created more action and rumors: teams that want to trade for big ticket players are looking to unload other players to clear money first, which is creating a domino effect of trade rumors throughout the league. While I don’t expect much of this to materialize, it does create a heavy feeling of excitement for any fan of a contending team right now. The possibilities are seemingly endless.
Here’s a look at the major players up for grabs over the next two days:
Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee
For the last few weeks, Roy has been the focal point for speculation, and for good reason: he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and would be a difference maker not just during the regular season, but in the playoffs too. Cliff Lee is coming off a Cy Young year with yet another fine season, and would be an ace for any team as well. Teams that are looking to trade for Halladay are looking at Lee as both leverage and Plan B.
The Phillies still look to be the front runners for Halladay, but Cliff Lee rumors have ramped up in the last day or so. It would be shocking if they didn’t obtain either player: they have the prospects to make it happen, and getting an ace pitcher would go a long way towards a repeat. Not to mention that after the last few weeks of rumors, if the Phillies don’t pick up an ace pitcher, new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will feel the wrath of Philadelphia fans and the local sports media after setting such high expectations.
The Dodgers have also been linked to both players, though unlike the Phillies, they would probably need to give up a player on their major league roster, like Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley: unlikely to happen. Down the road, the Angels are also looking into both pitchers, but would also need to draw from their 25 man roster to make a deal happen.
The dark horse in this trade, and pretty much every other one, is the Red Sox. Not like they need the help, but they have the prospects to offer (headed by Clay Buccholz), and payroll to spare. Their rotation is crazy good as is, but add Lee or Halladay, and suddenly it looks even better. As for the rival Yankees, it seems that Brian Cashman doesn’t have much of a decision to make after all: the Jays are reportedly asking for both Hughes and Chamberlain, which is a price too steep to pay.
Finally, the Rangers are showing interest in obtaining an ace as well, now that they’re a short distance away from a playoff birth for the first time in years. It sounds like they may need to clear payroll space before making such a deal, which has added to that domino effect I previously mentioned: this means players like Hank Blalock and Vincente Padilla could go on the market, though neither is terribly appealing for the money they’re being paid. I doubt they’ll be able to move either player.
Scott Kazmir
Speaking of domino effect, Kazmir is a perfect example of what happens when a team wants to make a big trade, and has to make yet another big trade first. The Rays are interested in Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, and have plenty of prospects to deal to obtain them. But with a very limited payroll, they’d need to clear a contract first, and Kazmir would be the best guy to send off: despite having a poor year so far, he’s still young with a track record, and owed $22.5 million over the next two years, with a club option. A pretty good deal for most teams, but a financial roadblock for the Rays.
The Rays are so eager to make a deal that they’ve even been rumored to have Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford available, two other guys who would be moved more for payroll flexibility than anything else- though I sincerely doubt that either would be moved, especially Crawford.
Victor Martinez
Any speculation regarding what the Indians might do at the deadline has been resolved: they’re looking to clear payroll, and it seems that V-Mart, along with Cliff Lee, will be seeing their final days in an Indians uniform. The Red Sox seem like the most compatible team here: even after trading for Adam LaRoche, they could probably use another bat, and would have Martinez at catcher for 2010 as well. As beloved as Varitek is, he’s getting up there in age, and I can’t see the Sox relying on him at age 38 to be their everyday catcher. The Rays would be the other team involved here, as Dioner Navarro is having a very poor season: if enough payroll could be cleared, they could make a blockbuster trade for both Martinez and Lee, though this may not be the best move when you’re four games out of the Wild Card.
Jarrod Washburn
If you don’t want to trade the farm for a shiny new Halladay or Lee, Washburn is a fine way to bolster your rotation. He’s no ace, but solid and reliable, and is having the best season of his career right now at age 34. Just like last year, he’s been rumored with the Yankees, though he’s also looking like a good option for the Brewers, and Plan C for the Phillies. With the Mariners officially in rebuilding mode, Washburn will definitely be wearing another uniform this weekend.
Aaron Harang
Yet another Plan C pitcher, who will be pursued by teams that don’t want to give up the farm, but want to add a reliable starter. Harang throws a ton of innings, and could potentially improve a lot away from Cincinnati’s bandbox of a ballpark.
Adrian Gonzalez
A-Gone’s situation is a case where the business of baseball is likely to interfere with what’s best for the team. The Padres, to put it bluntly, are a mess. The major league roster is obviously in bad shape, and the farm system desperately needs an influx of prospects. Trading Gonzalez in the next 48 hours would net a king’s ransom in young players, but I’m sure ownership is concerned about the impact this would have on ticket sales, and local perception of the team. Casual fans are still stinging from the notorious 1993 fire sale, and a Gonzalez trade would probably be looked at by the general community more as a cheap ownership looking to slash payroll than a genuine effort to rebuild for the future.
That being said, the Padres will come in last place with or without Gonzalez, and should move him now to get the best return possible. The Red Sox, again, seem like the best candidate to trade for him if he becomes available: he fits their philosophy of on-base skills, power and defense like a glove, and the Padres would get back some of the most coveted young players in the game.
Heath Bell
Yet another Padre asset that could be traded for prospects, but certainly a lighter haul than the one Gonzalez would bring. The Angels and Yankees have been connected to Bell, with the latter being fairly intriguing. If the Yankees were to get Bell (or a similar high leverage reliever/closer), they could slot him in the 8th before Mariano Rivera, push Hughes down to the 7th inning, and suddenly have one of the best end game bullpens in baseball. Not a bad idea, especially considering how critical a strong bullpen is to winning in the playoffs.
The next 48 hours will definitely be very interesting, especially for fans of teams that are in contention. Franchises will spend the next two days weighing the risks and rewards of making trades that benefit their present, or long-term future, and what they’ll need to sacrifice to get there.
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