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The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: NFC East
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Dallas Cowboys
Expected Wins- 9.11
Scouting Wins- 9.45
DVOA Wins- 8.0
2008 Record- 9-7
A long time ago football players were two-way. They played both on offense and defense (and special teams). Depth is less of a concern when you are not going to play all that many different players in a game. In the modern era a few teams have tried to build teams around a group of dominant stars and little depth, most noticeably the Redskins and Cowboys. The Redskins have had very little success with this plan. The Cowboys have been more successful, but they also have been exceedingly healthy. That was until last year. The Dallas offense was embarrassingly bad when quarterback Tony Romo was out with an injury. The defense dropped off quite a bit when cornerback Terence Newman was out, and returned to form once he returned. The Cowboys imported quarterback Jon Kitna to backup Romo, but there are still plenty of spots on the Cowboys roster where depth is an issue.
Romo is a gunslinger who will take huge risks. When the risks are paying off the offense is one of the best in football. When the risks aren’t paying off the team loses the turnover battle, and usually the game. If Romo can become slightly more judicious he’ll lead the Cowboys into the playoffs and perhaps the Super Bowl. He has plenty of help on offense. Running back Marion Barber is an excellent power back, although a bit injury prone. RB Felix Jones is fast but raw and saw only limited action last season, but he’s excellent as a change of pace back. RB Tashard Choice was a nice fourth-round pick for the Cowboys and was quite good when called in as an injury replacement for Barber. Losing wide receiver Terrell Owens won’t hurt the Cowboys, but they do need WR Roy Williams to live up to his star billing. He was awful last season but it was a tough spot for him coming in during the season without knowing the playbook. He leads a fairly talented group as fellow wide receivers Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton are pretty good. Austin is an excellent deep threat while Crayton is a tough physical receiver who can infiltrate a zone and overpower smaller cornerbacks. Actually, all three of the Cowboys’ top receivers should be able to overpower smaller cornerbacks as each one stands better than six feet tall and 210 pounds. In addition to a talented WR corps, the Cowboys have an excellent group of tight ends. Jason Witten is one of the best, and should be even more productive this season as long as he isn’t battling nagging injuries. TE Martellus Bennett took advantage of being the last guy the defense paid attention to, but he was a very good receiver for the Cowboys last season and looks to be a potential star.
The Cowboys offense has a lot of skill talent. The problem for the offense is the offensive line. The line actually sent three players to the Pro Bowl but only one, left guard Leonard Davis, was deserving. Center Andre Gurode had problems in run blocking and his discomfort with shotgun snaps continued. Left tackle Flozell Adams is a shadow of the player he used to be. Right tackle Marc Columbo is decent, but the Cowboys couldn’t find anyone to play left guard at an even mediocre level. The Cowboys offensive line wore down last season. Part of the problem for the Cowboys is they simply have not developed any offensive linemen over the past few years and the current group is aging. The Cowboys’ offense was significantly better at home in 2008, and I suspect part of that was the offensive line simply expending more energy when in front of the home fans.
Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware is an absolute monster. He is one of the most dominant players in the NFL and expects to get paid like it. His contract issue might hang over the Cowboys all season. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff is the defensive version of WR Marques Colston. He was a seventh-round pick who developed into a star. Unfortunately for the Cowboys the rest of the front seven is average. The Cowboys replaced DE Chris Canty with DE Igor Olshansky, a move that could be a mild upgrade. I’m concerned that Olshansky won’t draw as much attention as Canty and offenses will be able to devote more attention to Ware. Inside linebacker Bradie James was not quite the star one would expect given his sack total, but a bit of improvement against the run will be enough to turn him into a plus for the defense. I’m just not sure how much the loss of defensive tackle Tank Johnson will hurt the Cowboys.
Cornerback Terrence Newman is quite good, and CB Orlando Scandrick would form a nice tandem with him if the Cowboys give him the job. Cornerback Mike Jenkins was the first-round pick (Scandrick was taken in the fifth round), but has been outperformed by Scandrick. It appears that Jenkins will be given the starting job and teams will likely attack him instead of going after Scandrick or Newman. Free safety Ken Hamlin flat out quit once he got paid. Strong safety Herald Sensabaugh won’t have that problem as he is on a one-year contract.
The Cowboys picked up kicker David Buehler in the fifth round. He should be a pretty big improvement over kicker Nick Folk on kickoffs, and perhaps will take his job entirely. The punting and punt coverage was also below average, but the Cowboys made an effort to improve their special teams coverage units.
There is one other major issue with the Cowboys that I should mention. A team can win with a bad head coach if the infrastructure built by the previous regime is strong. However, eventually that infrastructure wears down, be it team discipline or simply an aging group of players not replaced by young talent. Head coach Wade Phillips is an excellent defensive coordinator and did a fine job leading the defense last season after replacing Brian Stewart in play-calling. But I have difficulty imagining Wade Phillips out-coaching Andy Reid or Tom Coughlin in a playoff game. There is an even more egregious example in the AFC (see Turner, Norv). The Cowboys have the talent to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but the NFC East is the toughest division in the NFL. Even a very good team like the Cowboys can finish 9-7 without having a bad season, which is exactly what I expect for them.
New York Giants
Expected Wins- 9.68
Scouting Wins- 11.29
DVOA Wins- 10.0
2008 Record- 12-4
Sigh. Football outsiders can talk as much as they want about how the Giants passing game was actually better without Plaxico Burress. I know he didn’t have the best catch rate, but I also know that size becomes more valuable in the red zone and Burress often drew either the opposing team’s best cornerback or a double team. So he will be missed. The Giants drafted wide receiver Hakeem Nicks in the first round, but it is unreasonable to expect him to replace Burress. Actually, stylistically he is a replacement for Amani Toomer. I felt he was a bit of a reach. WR Mario Manningham appears to be ill equipped to handle the NFL. SWR Sinorice Moss was quite good for the Giants last season, albeit in limited usage. WR Domenik Hixon gets a bad rap because people remember the huge drop vs. the Eagles, but he is a pretty good receiver. Steve Smith was Mr. Third Down for the Giants last year. I’m not ecstatic with the Giants WR corps, but I do like tight end Kevin Boss. He stepped up last season and the Giants didn’t miss Jeremy Shockey. Oh, one final note: Eli Manning threw 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions in the 10 games with Burress, and threw five touchdowns and five interceptions in the seven games without Burress. I respect DVOA, but just this once I am going to believe my lying eyes.
Speaking of Eli I’m actually quite happy with him. He’s been steadily improving and finally completed over 60% of his passes last season. He was a bit lucky last season in terms of dropped interceptions and there will be a lot of pressure this season to produce without Burress and Toomer. Eli has generally been pretty poor when blitzed and that is one thing I hope he worked on during the offseason. If Eli gets hurt David Carr should prove to be one of the better backups in the NFL. One thing Eli has going for him is an excellent running game.
Much of the credit for the Giants running game should go to the offensive line. Right guard Chris Snee is probably the best player on the line. Overall this isn’t the most talented line in the NFL, but it plays very well together. Running back Derrick Ward will be missed but the Giants feel they have the depth to move on. Running back Brandon Jacobs is excellent between the tackles and in short yardage situations. RB Danny Ware and RB Ahmed Bradshaw are competing to see who will get the carries that belonged to Ward last year. I love fourth-round pick RB Andre Brown and we’ll see if he can break into the lineup as a rookie.
However you feel about Plaxico Burress and the offense’s production without him, there is no question that the defense weakened as the season went on. The Giants simply did not pressure the quarterback as effectively as they had earlier in the season. The Giants felt that the defensive line wore down and attacked the problem by increasing their depth. Defensive ends Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Mathias Kiwanuka form the best group of ends in the NFL. Defensive tackles Chris Canty (converted from defensive end), Rocky Bernard, Fred Robbins, Jay Alford, and Barry Cofield will also form a solid defensive tackle rotation. The linebacker corps is not quite as strong as the defensive line, and there are concerns about their pass coverage. The Giants signed Michael Boley and drafted Clint Sintim to play the wings while Antonio Pierce will continue to handle the inside. Pierce is not the player he once was. Bryan Kehl will also see significant playing time.
Cornerback Corey Webster has become an elite cover corner. Aaron Ross has not been as good as the Giants hoped he would be, but he has the athleticism to do the job and the Giants are going to give him another chance. The Giants have pretty good depth behind Webster and Ross as Terrell Thomas and Kevin Dockery are both above average as nickel and dime corners respectively. The Giants lost strong safety James Butler to free agency but they should be fine. Look for Michael Johnson to switch over from free to strong safety. Kenny Phillips will take over at free safety, a move I am quite happy with.
Punter Jeff Feagles is a master at punting the ball at the right distance and angle to maximize distance while minimizing returns. Kicker Lawrence Tynes benefits from a strong coverage unit (as does Feagles). The Giants return units are unimpressive.
The Giants are one of the best teams in the NFC. Historically the Giants have not been good as favorites. The offense will probably be a bit worse than it was last year but the defense should make up for it. Anything fewer than 10 wins would be a disappointment. I am not predicting disappointment for the Giants, so I’ll go with 10-6.
Philadelphia Eagles
Expected Wins- 9.72
Scouting Wins- 10.44
DVOA Wins- 9.3
2008 Record- 9-6-1
First I would like to take a moment to remember Jim Johnson. I am going to quote Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie: “For 10 years, Jim Johnson was an exceptional coach for the Philadelphia Eagles, but more importantly, he was an outstanding human being … As an integral part of the Eagles family, Jim epitomized the traits of what a great coach should be – a teacher, a leader, and a winner …It was easy to feel close to him.”
My condolences to Jim Johnson’s family and all who knew him.
Donovan McNabb is not the most accurate of quarterbacks, but he has been underrated for his entire career. He was benched last season yet had the self confidence to support adding Michael Vick. It isn’t a fluke that McNabb has basically turned the Eagles into the Buffalo Bills of the NFC. Under McNabb the Eagles have consistently been a very good team, yet only once broke through to the Super Bowl. The addition of Vick is a bit hard to judge as no one knows how the Eagles will use him. It is possible that Vick will be used as a wildcat QB for six plays or so a game. McNabb still has the skills to lead the Eagles back to the Super Bowl. He is only 33 years old.
Age may be nothing but a number, but Brian Westbrook is showing his. Running backs can go downhill fast and I fear that Westbrook will never be the threat he used to be. He is battling multiple nagging injuries and will probably be used judiciously this season. The Eagles got good value in the second round when they drafted running back LeSean McCoy. He isn’t ready to step into Westbrook’s shoes but will help the Eagles running game. The Eagles have added fullback Leonard Weaver and I expect their third/fourth and short problems to dissipate.
DeSean Jackson is the Eagles most dangerous receiver, although rookie Jeremy Maclin looks to be a great second option. Jackson isn’t quite as consistent as he should be, although part of the blame might have to go to McNabb and his accuracy issues. The Eagles generally don’t spend too much money on their WR corps but McNabb and Reid have done a good job with the talent they have. The Eagles have upgraded their offensive line, bringing in tackles Stacy Andrews and Jason Peters. Their line has the overall talent to be one of the best lines in the NFL.
The Eagles had the best DVOA in the NFL last season and much of that came from a dominant defense. The Eagles defense might not have been quite as memorable as the Steelers or Ravens, but it was as effective. Defensive tackles Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley led what became the best run defense in the NFL. Defensive end Trent Cole wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2007, but he was still very effective. The Eagles defensive line is deep as well as talented, and should remain strong this season. Oh, one other thing: blitz the formation. When the Eagles faced a strange formation they were unfamiliar with they would discard whatever defense they had called in the huddle and attack the offense. The Ravens did something similar. I love that. Weird formation? We’ll figure it out later, but for now – blitz!
The linebacking corps is not quite as strong as the defensive line. Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley is the best of the group. Omar Gaither was expected to become a great player but regressed instead last season. The Eagles don’t have much depth at linebacker.
Free Safety Brian Dawkins had been the face of the Eagles secondary for years but on the field he simply was not the great player he had once been. He’ll be replaced by either Sean Jones or Quintin Demps, and both are quality replacements. Strong safety Quintin Mikell didn’t draw much attention from the press, but performed at an all-pro level last season. The Eagles aren’t just strong at safety as they have the most effective cornerback tandem in the NFL: Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. In addition, the Eagles have depth at cornerback with Ellis Hobbs and Joselio Hanson.
The Eagles special teams improved immensely after picking up Tracy White last season. Kicker David Akers is on the decline but overall the Eagles special teams units should be a slight plus.
The Eagles had the best DVOA of any team in the NFL last season. The decline of Westbrook is a problem but the Eagles should still be one of the best teams in football. They were unusually healthy last season, particularly on defense. I cannot quantify what the loss of Jim Johnson will do to the defense and the Eagles as a whole. The Eagles probably should have won 10 games last season and I expect them to go 10-6 this year.
Washington Redskins
Expected Wins- 7.96
Scouting Wins- 7.27
DVOA Wins- 7.8
2008 Record- 8-8
I don’t understand how this team is expected to win eight games this season. Yes they started last season 6-2, and finished at 8-8, and yes they get to play Kansas City, Oakland, Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, and Tampa Bay, but they also have six games vs. Dallas, Philadelphia, and the New York Giants, in addition to games against San Diego, Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans. Finishing in last place isn’t all its cracked up to be in terms of ease of schedule. Quarterback Jason Campbell is in a contract year. He’d love to put up big numbers this season but who will he throw to? Santana Moss is an excellent wide receiver, but he was facing double coverage during the entire second half of last season after defenses realized no other receiver was a real threat. Antwaan Randle El isn’t bad, but he isn’t a player defenses need to scheme against. Tight end Chris Cooley was the only other receiving threat and as such drew too much defensive attention to dominate. The Redskins need someone other than Moss and Cooley to step up. Malcolm Kelly was supposed to be that guy and he is young enough to still grow into the No. 2 receiver slot, but he hasn’t shown an inclination to do the work required.
The two main pieces of the running game are also coming off of injury. If Clinton Portis can’t return to full strength, the running game will suffer. More importantly, if offensive tackle Chris Samuels cannot return to health from a bum knee the entire offense will suffer. It wasn’t the Redskins fault that they missed out on the top three offensive linemen in the 2009 draft, but they are left with an aging offensive line.
Defensively the Redskins added the single most dominant lineman in football: Albert Haynesworth. To further fortify the line they drafted defensive end Brian Orakpo. Orakpo is a bit raw but he has the talent to become an elite defensive end or outside linebacker. Like much of the roster the defensive line is filled with players on the wrong side of 30. The linebacker corps is led by middle linebacker London Fletcher. He is 34 but had a great 2008 and should benefit with the addition of Haynesworth. The linebacker depth is thin and they might put fifth-round draft pick Cody Glenn into the rotation early. Cornerback DeAngelo Hall played well enough to get paid, and now the jury is out as to whether he’ll continue to work as hard as he did to earn that payday (Haynesworth has similar questions). If Hall continues the fine play he produced in Washington the Redskins will have a nice secondary. Cornerback Chris Rogers was benched in 2008 after Hall arrived from Oakland, but he is quite talented. Free safety LaRon Landry looks like a future All-Pro. Strong safety Chris Horton functions as an additional linebacker.
The Redskins have pretty good coverage units, and kick returner Rock Cartwright is above average. After those two bright spots the Redskins have lousy special teams.
I can see the Redskins boasting one of the stronger defenses in the NFL, but the offense looks weak. Moreover, apart from the secondary the roster lacks depth. Offensive line coach Joe Bugel is one of the best in the history of the NFL, but he has a tough job to do this season. I see seven wins for the Redskins, mostly due to the defense keeping them close.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles- 10-6
New York Giants- 10-6
Dallas Cowboys- 9-7
Washington Redskins- 7-9
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings- 10-6
Chicago Bears- 9-7
Green Bay Packers- 9-7
Detroit Lions- 4-12
NFC South
New Orleans Saints- 10-6
Carolina Panthers- 9-7
Atlanta Falcons- 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 5-11
NFC South
Arizona Cardinals- 9-7
Seattle Seahawks- 9-7
San Francisco 49ers- 6-10
St. Louis Rams- 6-10
1. Philadelphia Eagles- 10-6
2. New Orleans Saints- 10-6
3. Minnesota Vikings- 10-6
4. Arizona Cardinals- 9-7
5. New York Giants- 10-6
6. Chicago Bears- 9-7
NFC Playoffs:
Wildcard Weekend:
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Divisional Round:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
NFC Championship Game:
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
NFC Champion:
Philadelphia Eagles
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
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The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: NFC North
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Division Previews
Chicago Bears
Expected Wins- 8.83
Scouting Wins- 9.09
DVOA Wins- 10.5
2008 Record- 9-7
If you are a Chicago fan you are aware of what the Bears did during the offseason. The Bears were the chief beneficiary of a dysfunctional regime change in Denver. Jay Cutler might be the most talented young quarterback to change teams in my lifetime. Cutler is not the most beloved of teammates and there will be extreme pressure on him to produce. His early success will be heavily dependent on the development of his youthful receiving corps. Wide receiver Devon Hester has steadily improved his receiving skills and has become quite adept at drawing pass interference penalties. The second option after Hester looks to be tight end Greg Olson. Despite not having great run blocking ahead of him, running back Matt Forte has been quite effective for the Bears. The offensive line has a pair of former greats, one of whom still is. Center Olin Kreutz is still exceptional but left tackle Orlando Pace has worn down and is now a bit brittle. The Bears offensive line depth will likely be tested.
The Bears defense slipped in 2008 but was still one of the better defenses in the NFL. One of the main reasons for the slippage was the play of defensive tackle Tommie Harris. When Harris is healthy only Albert Haynesworth is comparable. Last year both his health and effort lagged. Apart from Harris the Bears defensive line is filled with good but not game-changing players. The Bears want to give their defensive line a bit more rest and used their first pick (3rd round) on defensive tackle Jarron Gilbert. Last year the defensive line had trouble producing a pass rush and that is going to be their first priority in 2009.
Weak-side linebacker Lance Briggs is one of the best linebackers in the NFL. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is no longer dominant but he still is a plus for the defense.
Let me go off on a bit of a tangent here. Because of a weak pass rush last season the Bears had to threaten pressure from the linebackers. This put them out of position and played against their strengths. Furthermore it put the secondary into a lot of man coverage. The secondary had been constructed to play Tampa-2 style zone and was not particularly effective in man coverage. Having no pass rush at all will get your secondary killed but if you need to bring more than 4 men to generate your pass rush you still might be in trouble, something the Bears experienced last year.
The Bears secondary battled injury problems last season. Cornerback Nathan Vasher was once an elite player but has regressed. If Vasher does not return to form the Bears secondary lacks impact players.
The Bears special teams regressed from excellent to merely very good which is the same level of performance I expect from them this season. Hester gets a lot of attention but Danieal Manning was the more effective return man last season.
The Bears certainly have as much potential as any team in the NFC this season. They still have much of the talent that led them to 13 wins in 2006. However, offensive line issues, a weak wide receiving corps, and an aging defense lead me to believe the Bears won’t be a great team this season. They went 9-7 last season and that is what I expect for them this year.
Detroit Lions
Expected Wins- 4.64
Scouting Wins- 3.53
DVOA Wins- 5.8
2008 Record- 0-16
Where do I start? The Lions have an epic rebuilding job ahead of them. Let me list what they have going for them:
Quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Calvin Johnson, tight end Brandon Pettigrew, and running back Kevin Smith are all talented and can form the core of a potent offense. Coach Jim Schwartz is notable for being a football coach who embraces statistical analysis and might start correcting a variety of inefficiencies that fans and analysts have cried about for years. General Manager Martin Mayhew understands the situation the Lions are in and is going to be able to sacrifice short-term success for long-term growth. Please note that I am not optimistic about Stafford, and that we might never know how good he can be as his offensive line might get him killed (Carr, David).
Defensively expect the Lions to be aggressive. Apart from a pretty good linebacker corps the defense looks like it will usually be overmatched. Defensive end Cliff Avril looked like the best defensive lineman on the Lions in 2008 and it will be interesting to see if can improve upon his level of play. The secondary has been rebuilt and will almost certainly be better than last year’s version. Rookie free safety Louis Delmas should be fun to watch.
The Lions special teams were consistently good on kickoffs and punt coverage, and consistently poor at returning kickoffs and punts. Kicker Jason Hanson had a flukishly good season. The Lions’ special teams are not a weakness, which is nice given how many holes there are on the roster.
The Lions are obviously not a good football team but they’re a lot better than 0-16. I have them going 4-12 but the real issue with the Lions isn’t wins and losses, it is player development and talent acquisition. The biggest priority for the Lions right now is to help turn Matthew Stafford into Troy Aikman as opposed to letting him languish like David Carr, Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell.
Green Bay Packers
Expected Wins- 8.67
Scouting Wins- 8.74
DVOA Wins- 7.4
2008 Record- 6-10
The Packers went 6-10 in 2008 but they were not a bad or even below average football team. They outscored their opponents 419 to 380, but went 0-7 in games decided by 4 points or less. That is simply bad luck and won’t happen again.
Offensively the Packers are making some changes, specifically concerning their offensive line schemes. The Packers are switching from a zone-blocking scheme to a man-blocking scheme but their personnel seems ill-suited to the change. I must admit the offense looks underwhelming no matter what scheme they run. Another concern I have for the Packers offense is the health and performance of running back Ryan Grant. He was hampered by a hamstring injury last season and if he doesn’t regain his 2007 form he must be considered a liability on offense. Having fullback Korey Hall stay healthy will help the offense as Grant’s performance suffered without him. Now, for the good news: quarterback Aaron Rodgers was excellent last season and the Packers have an elite wide receiving corps. Rodgers and wide receiver Greg Jennings form one of the top combinations in the NFL. Wide receiver Donald Driver has been remarkably healthy and remains quite productive despite being 34. Jordy Nelson stepped up into the third WR slot and performed quite well. Tight end Donald Lee has been very effective inside the red zone. Overall the Packers passing game should be quite good as long as the offensive line can give Rodgers time to operate.
Defensively, the Packers are switching to a 3-4 system. The Packers drafted B.J. Raji to share nose tackle duties with Ryan Pickett. The addition of Raji should protect Pickett from wearing down, and Raji looks like he could be a potential star due his quickness off the line. I’m less happy with the Packers’ defensive ends as I cannot find anyone that I love, although Mike Montgomery has done a pretty good job despite not being particularly gifted athletically.
Outside linebacker (and former defensive end) Aaron Kampman is not happy about the switch to a 3-4 defense as he is much better attacking the line than playing in space. He has the talent to make the transition, and the rest of the linebacker corps is quite good. A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett should form an effective inside-outside unit, although flipped from last season when Hawk was outside and Barnett was inside. Even without linebacker Clay Matthews (the Packers other first- round selection) the Packers had a very good linebacker corps. The addition of Raji and Matthews should fortify what looked to be a solid front seven.
Scouts love the Packers secondary but cornerback Charles Woodson is 33 years old and cornerback Al Harris is two years his senior. Cornerback Tramon Williams hasn’t developed a great feel for the game. Free safety Nick Collins had a monster year in 2008 with seven interceptions, three of which he returned for touchdowns. And strong safety Atari Bigbi has been injury prone and could lose his job.
The Packers could use a better punter as well as a better kick returner but overall their special teams are only slightly below average.
I like the Packers a lot more than their DVOA projection. I expect them to have a strong passing game as well as a pretty good defense. I have concerns about the offensive backfield and the secondary, but the only major concern is the offensive line. The Packers also luck out a bit in that they get the Bears at home in Week 1 before Jay Cutler has had a chance to settle in and they get the Vikings on the road in Week 4 before the Starcaps suspensions end (update, it appears that the players have successfully managed to delay any league disciplinary action). I’d like to give the Packers 10 wins but their DVOA projection and their offensive line both give me pause, so I’ll go with 9-7.
Minnesota Vikings
Expected Wins- 9.46
Scouting Wins- 9.42
DVOA Wins- 8.8
2008 Record- 10-6
This will end badly. I’m not saying that as a bitter Jets fan. I’m saying that as a bitter Jets fan who used to live in Madison, WI. The best-case scenario is that defenses overestimate Favre and give Adrian Peterson some rushing room. I can’t blame the Vikings for trying to improve their quarterback situation but Favre’s arm simply isn’t what it used to be. Kurt Warner is 38 years old and there are major concerns about him regressing. Favre is 39. I’m not sold on Tavaris Jackson (who is?), but perhaps Sage Rosenfels would have been able to punish teams for putting eight men in the box to stop Peterson. Speaking of Peterson, his numbers are excellent, particularly given that defenses are keyed to stop him, but he will start to wear down if he doesn’t get more help. I’m also concerned about his fumbling problems. Running back Chester Taylor is an excellent backup and quite helpful as both a pass blocker and receiver.
I’m not sure what to say about the WR corps. Bernard Berrian is quite good, although he has been bothered by foot injuries. Tight ends Visanthe Shiancoe and Jim Kleinsasser handle receiving and blocking quite well respectively. Shiancoe looks to become a star. Rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin has first-round talent but I suspect the Vikings made a mistake taking him. He is still quite immature and the list of wide receivers from the SEC that have not lived up to their first round status is long. The Vikings offensive line has a split personality. The left side is dominant as both tackle Bryant McKinnie and guard Steve Hutchinson are among the best in the NFL. Center Matt Birk had clearly fallen off but I’m not confident in his replacement, John Sullivan. The Vikings drafted Phil Loadholt to take over at right tackle. He has great size and strength, but lacks agility. I think he should eventually become a pretty good player for the Vikings but it might not be immediate. Right guard Anthony Herrera was pretty bad last season. Overall the offensive line should be pretty good, particularly at run blocking. The offense really will go as far as Favre (or Jackson, or Rosenfels) can take them.
Defensive end Jared Allen lived up to his star billing. It looks like The Williams’s (Pat and Kevin) will both have to miss four games to start the season (update: maybe not, they have so far been successful in court). When they return the Vikings will have one of the strongest defensive lines in the NFL. Defensive end Ray Edwards had decent results given he was usually facing single blocking but he was quite good against the run and looks to be improving. There are depth concerns on the defensive line, but Fred Evans was pretty good filling in at defensive tackle. The Vikings defense played quite well after linebacker E.J. Henderson’s injury, but he was playing at an elite level and his return should help the defense. Linebackers Chad Greenway and Ben Leber round out a well regarded unit. He’s 32 year old but Antoine Winfield has finally become an elite cornerback. Cornerback Cedric Griffin has been inconsistent but was pretty good overall last season. I like the promotion of Tyrell Johnson to strong safety. Free safety Madieu Williams is not really a good fit in the cover-2 scheme but he is a net plus for the Vikings.
The Vikings special teams won’t be as bad this season as they were last year. Percy Harvin might add a spark in the return game. The punt coverage units should be an area of focus for the coaching staff,
Last year the Vikings had a Super Bowl quality defense and a terrible offense. This season I don’t expect much to change. I don’t buy Favre as savior. Between the defense and the running game I can see nine wins. If they get competent quarterback play, 10 or 11 wins would be about right. When it looked like the Williams’s were going to be suspended for four games I was leaning towards 9-7, but with them available all season 10-6 is the projection.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
Popularity: unranked [?]
The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: NFC South
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Division Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Expected Wins: 8.19
Scouting Wins: 5.99
DVOA Wins: 6.6
2008 Record: 11-5
Let’s throw a little cold water on the expectations for the Falcons. They had a nice run last year but by the end of the season there were signs that they weren’t a dominant team. Matt Ryan’s effectiveness dropped the final five weeks of the season. The running game produced some impressive statistics but when the strength of the defenses faced were taken into account the Falcons’ rushing DVOA was only 13th in the NFL. The Falcons were also an unusually healthy team last year, something they cannot count on to repeat itself.
There is some good news for Atlanta: Tony Gonzalez. The DVOA projections are not taking the trade into account, as it is very difficult to judge the addition of one of the greatest tight ends of all time. His addition should draw attention from wide receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, both of whom played very well last year. Running back Michael Turner was everything the Falcons hoped he would be but I am concerned about his workload. Running backs usually wear down when overused and Turner is in that danger zone. The offensive line had a tremendous year in 2008, particularly given how awful they were in 2007 and the injury to offensive tackle Sam Baker. Left tackle Todd Weiner stepped in and performed admirably in Baker’s stead but he is gone now. If Baker can remain healthy this year the offensive line should be able to maintain its level of play from 2008. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a fantastic rookie season and it will be interesting to see if he can maintain the level of play he produced in early 2008. Last year Ryan faced an easier schedule than the one he faces this year. One other player of note: wide receiver Harry Douglas has the athleticism to become an excellent slot receiver. If he matures, the Falcons’ offense could rival that of the Saints for best in the division.
The major problems on paper for the Falcons are not on offense. The scouts rate their defense as slightly better than that of the Detroit Lions, faint praise indeed. Defensive end John Abraham was absolutely dominant as a pass rusher but was not particularly effective against the run. The Falcons drafted defensive tackle Peria Jerry in the first round to help shore up their defensive line, and added defensive end Lawrence Sidbury in the 4th round. Actually, the Falcons’ first five picks were used on defenders. They took safety William Moore in the 2nd round, cornerback Chris Owens in the 3rd round, and cornerback William Middleton in the 5th round. A strong case can be made that Peria Jerry was the best defensive tackle in the draft, and he should be a great fit for the Falcons. Sidbury looks like he will need some time to develop, although he could see some use in nickel formations. I don’t know much about Middleton apart from the fact that he was Middleton’s MVP, but Owens is a tremendous athlete limited by his size. If the Falcons coaches can protect him from being physically overmatched, he could contribute right away. Defensive end Jamaal Anderson is young and still improving. He was effective against the run last year but needs to improve his pass rush. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux should benefit from the addition of Peria Jerry.
Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton is the only returning starter. He was quite good as a rookie. The rest of the linebackers can be considered “replacement level” talent. As much as the linebacker corps cannot be considered an area of strength, the defensive backfield looks flammable. The Falcons lost their best cornerback, Domonique Foxworth, in free agency. Cornerback Chris Houston will be one of the starters but I cannot tell you who will win the other starting job. Right now my best guess is Chevis Jackson. William Moore will likely be the starting strong safety. Free safety Erik Coleman must improve or risk being replaced after (or during) the season. The Falcons’ special teams are above average, mostly due to excellent coverage units.
Despite going 11-5 last year, Falcons management knows they are in the midst of a long term rebuilding project. The defense is a mix of very young players and aged veterans. I think the Falcons are on a long term upswing but for now the defense and the schedule lead me to expect a losing season, 7-9.
Carolina Panthers
Expected Wins: 8.12
Scouting Wins: 8.65
DVOA Wins: 8.3
2008 Record: 12-4
No team ended their 2008 season on a more shocking note than the Carolina Panthers. They got absolutely destroyed at home by the Arizona Cardinals in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. Clearly management likes the roster, as the Panthers are returning 21 out of 22 starters, with the only change a slight one to the secondary. The biggest issue for the Panthers is their exodus of depth. Actually, the Panthers have a few issues. The one that ended their season last year was Jake Delhomme’s accuracy, or lack thereof. Delhomme turned the ball over six times against the Cardinals.
The Panthers brought in coach Rip Scherer to help Delhomme improve his accuracy. He completed 59.4% of his passes last year, and has a lifetime completion rate of 59.7%. He also averages an interception a game. Those are not good numbers. Delhomme is 34 years old and has a gunslinger mentality. It is hard to say he takes too many risks since some pay off, but when he has an off day, well, six turnovers. Delhomme was not asked to carry the offense, as the running game improved as the season wore on. Before the 2008 season the offensive line switched over from a zone-blocking scheme to a more physical power blocking scheme and the move paid off. In fact the offensive line was superb in 2009. Rookie Jeff Otah fit in immediately at right tackle, Jeff Gross was excellent at left tackle, and Ryan Kalil was superb at center. Little is guaranteed in the NFL but the Panthers’ offensive line looks to be one of the best in 2009.
Wide receiver Steve Smith is still a star but he is going to need more help this season. Wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad is not nearly as good as he used to be and wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett is the player most likely to step up and become the Panthers’ #2 receiver. Jarrett is considered to be a bust but he is only 23 years old and has the size to dominate smaller cornerbacks. I’m not sure where else on the roster to look for targets. Tight end Gary Barnidge could become one of Delhomme’s options if he continues to develop.
As bad as Delhomme imploded at the end of last year he wasn’t the only noticeable implosion on the team. The defense collapsed against the run late last season, most noticeably in the Giants game. Defensive tackle Ma’ake Kemoeatu (Kemo eat you) missed the Giants game with an injury (indigestion?) but when healthy he is an excellent run stuffer. Defensive tackle Damione Lewis did a very good job stepping into departed tackle Kris Jenkins’s shoes but the lack of depth at the position came back to haunt the Panthers. The Panthers recognized this problem and drafted DT Corey Irvin in the 3rd round. He doesn’t have the size and strength he’ll need to be an every down player in the NFL but he should be able to provide some rest for the starters. Defensive end Julius Peppers had a monster year, possibly due to the fact that he was in the last year of a contract. The team franchised him so he will again be playing for a new contract. Defensive end Charles Johnson was effective in limited use last season. He will be asked to play a larger role this season. The Panthers also traded up to draft DE Everette Brown. Some scouts had him ranked above Aaron Maybin and Tyson Jackson. He is a bit raw but has tremendous upside as a pass rush specialist.
I’m a big fan of ILB Jon Beason. He is going to have a bit more pass coverage responsibility this year but he has the speed to handle that. The Panthers have imported defensive coordinator Ron Meeks and he is a Tampa-2 disciple. Thomas Davis has become an excellent weakside linebacker but the Panthers have a bit of a problem at strongside linebacker. Na’il Diggs currently holds that job and they just gave him an extension but he is a clear weak link.
The secondary should be quite good despite the loss of CB Ken Lucas. Cornerback Chris Gamble has become an excellent player. Richard Marshall will move from nickel cornerback to second starter. Second round draft pick Sherrod Martin will move into the nickel slot. Strong safety Chris Harris is a very hard hitter but it is free safety Charles Godfrey who could develop into a star.
The Panthers have two kickers and have been successful with that plan. Kickoff specialist Rhys Lloyd was excellent in that job while John Kasay was quite effective on field goals. Apart from those two, the Panthers’ special teams are not particularly good.
The truth is, this roster was one of the Super Bowl favorites heading into the playoffs last year. The running game was excellent, Steve Smith was very effective, and Peppers had a monster season. I can’t expect the same level of performance, particularly given how tough their schedule is. Still, they have the best defense in their division and an above average offense so I’ll credit them with a 9-7 record.
New Orleans Saints
Expected Wins: 8.76
Scouting Wins: 9.52
DVOA Wins: 7.8
2008 Record: 8-8
I think we can all agree the Saints have an impressive offense. Quarterback Drew Brees made a run at Marino’s yardage record last season. Wide receiver Marquis Colston has exactly 3000 yards receiving over the last 3 years. Not bad for a 7th round pick. He had microfracture surgery in January but should be 100% by week 1. Reggie Bush has not become the star everyone expected, but between him and Pierre Thomas the Saints have a balanced and talented backfield. The wide receiving corps is deep and filled with breakout threats such as Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson. Billy Miller is the best of a fairly deep group of tight ends. The Saints’ offensive line isn’t quite as good as Drew Brees makes it look, but it is still very good. The guards are the strongest part of the line, but the Saints have very little depth at tackle so an injury there would be more damaging.
One final note on the Saints offense: It was fine under center but absolutely devastating from a shotgun formation.
If the Saints offense has an Achilles heel it is turnovers but given how many points the Saints score I’d say they get a good rate of return on the risks they take. The bigger problems for the Saints are on defense.
Usually I don’t focus on coordinators but the Saints have brought in Gregg Williams to be their defensive coordinator. Williams is an exceedingly aggressive coach. He has some decent tools to work with, or at least will after the Starcaps situation is resolved. Defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have both been implicated in the scandal. Smith has been weighed down by double teams and will benefit from the offense being distracted by other rushers. Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis showed improvement over the course of his rookie season. The best Saints defender is middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma. Unfortunately the rest of the linebacker corps is rather lousy.
The Saints drafted cornerback Malcolm Jenkins in the first round. I had him as the top cornerback in the draft. Cornerback Tracy Porter showed some nice skills last season before he got hurt. They and the rest of the Saints cornerbacks must prepare to cover men one-on-one, as Gregg Williams is going to send most of his defense after the quarterback. The only safety that could become a plus for the Saints is rookie free safety Chip Vaughn. He is a tremendous athlete and will help out on special teams while he learns the finer points of playing safety in the NFL.
If the Saints’ defense was going to be effective without blitzing, then perhaps Williams would be a bad hire. Given the low expectations for the defense I like the strategy. The Saints gave up lots of big plays last season playing passively. This season they should at least have a lot of positive plays to weigh against the inevitable big plays they give up.
The Saints understand that they have some problems with their special teams units. As such they drafted punter Thomas Morstead. He is known for excellent hang time but is a bit slow to get punts off, so that is something to watch out for. If he can’t get his punts off on time the Saints have Glenn Pakulak. Kicker Garret Hartley has a strong leg and should be quite effective. Reggie Bush isn’t quite the return threat people think he is but overall the Saints’ special teams units should be above average this season.
I like coach Sean Payton but he has a tough job this year. His offense is excellent but that was true last year when the Saints were mediocre. The Saints will go as far as their defense takes them. If only because offense is more consistent than defense, I’ll entrust the Saints with a 10-6 record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Expected Wins: 5.86
Scouting Wins: 4.67
DVOA Wins: 7.2
2008 Record: 9-7
This team had a winning record last year. In fact, they were 9-3 at one point. At that point the defense collapsed. Some people have blamed coach Monte Kiffin, who was distracted by his son and the University of Tennessee but the fact is it was the players on the field who got mauled. The Bucs traded up to draft quarterback Josh Freeman. That might be a great move for the long term. Josh Freeman has tremendous upside ($1, Hubie Brown). He is less ready to start than his fellow first round quarterbacks (Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford). The Bucs currently have five quarterbacks on their roster. Between Luke McCown, Brian Griese, Byron Leftwich, and Josh Johnson the Bucs have plenty of choices as to who is least ineffective in their West coast style offense. Whoever wins the quarterback competition will have some talent around him. The Bucs signed tight end Kellen Winslow Jr., running back Derrick Ward, and re-signed wide receiver Antonio Bryant. I’m not sure what to make of receiver Michael Clayton. He re-signed with the Bucs but I’m skeptical that he’ll help the offense. Ward and running back Earnest Graham should complement each other.
The Bucs’ offensive line has switched from a power blocking system to a zone blocking system. That fits their personnel quite well. The interior of the Bucs’ line is superb, although Guard Arron Sears might be having concussion issues. Guard Davin Joseph was excellent in 2008, as was center Jeff Faine. The tackles are serviceable but not great.
The biggest change for the Bucs’ defense is not personnel. They are switching to a new defensive scheme instead of the traditional Tampa-2. Expect to see a little less speed and a little more size from the Bucs’ defensive line.
The Bucs have talent on their defensive line but depth at tackle was a problem in 2008. Defensive end Gaines Adams is dominant at times, but he wore down as the season progressed. The same can be said for defensive tackle Ryan Sims, although he wasn’t quite the threat that Adams was. Stylez G. White (don’t ask) was fantastic in 2007, but only decent in 2008. Defensive end Jimmy Wilkerson was a bit more consistent than White in 2008 but both are above average. The Bucs invested their 3rd and 4th round picks on defensive lineman, but both looked like reaches to me. In the 3rd round they grabbed defensive tackle Roy Miller and in the 4th round they took Kyle Moore. Both have issues with being overpowered but perhaps the Bucs have a vision in mind for them. Miller’s high effort level was noticeable, and Moore has significant upside ($1). Defensive tackle Chris Hovan is not the star he once was. Miller is going to be asked to contribute immediately.
Last year the linebacker corps were superb against the pass, but the unit has been reworked. Middle linebacker Barrett Rudd remains but Derrick Brooks and Cato June are gone. Jermaine Phillips and Angelo Crowell will take their places. I expect a bit of a drop off compared to last season.
The Bucs have a nice pair of young corners in Aqib Talib and Elbert Mack. Cornerback Ronde Barber is 34 years old and slipping. I wonder how long he will keep his job. Free safety Tanard Jackson is another young excellent defender. Free safety Sabby Piscitelli is not quite as good as Jackson, but he isn’t a liability.
The Bucs have excellent coverage units and are bringing in Mike Nugent to improve their kicking game. Punter Josh Bidwell is pretty good. Clifton Smith was noticeably effective returning both kicks and punts. Overall, the Bucs’ special teams should be among the best in the NFL.
Part of the reason the scouts are grading the Bucs so poorly is the confusion as to who will lead the offense, although there is a healthy skepticism as to the defensive scheme as well. The Bucs have an extremely tough schedule and are short 1 home game (London, October 25th vs. the Patriots). If I had faith in any of the Bucs’ five quarterbacks I’d give them 6 or 7 wins. As is, they look like a five win team to me. 5-11.
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The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: NFC West
Posted by: | CommentsMy name is Seth Burn and I am happy to bring you my 2009 NFL Preview.
This is an annual tradition for me and I pleased to be bringing it the Upper Deck Blog. Over the next few days we’ll be bringing you a division-by-division look at the upcoming NFL season. If you aren’t happy with my projection for your favorite team, well, my projections aren’t infallible and teams often surprise and confound prognosticators. I hope you enjoy the preview and the NFL season. Best of luck to all of your favorite players and teams.
Before I begin the preview I would like to define some terms:
Expected Wins: These are the implied wins set by the trading markets. If a team were given an over-under of eight wins such that a wager of 100 would return 220 total on the over (+120), and a wager of 140 would return 240 on the under (-140) the team would have an expected value of approximately 7.7 wins (8 – .3). Please note, I do not wish to condone gambling. I include these win totals because they are the de facto median expectation for the teams.
Scouting Wins: This is a formula based upon positional values. The offense gets four values: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers + tight ends, offensive line, with quarterbacks being by far the most important, and offensive line being more important than the running backs or wide receiving corps. The defense has three values: defensive line, linebacker corps, and the secondary, with the defensive line being the most important and the secondary being the least important. And last and least are the special teams rankings. The reason special teams are valued so low is because they are so fluid and unpredictable. A team can have a top 5 special teams value one year, and a bottom 5 special teams value the next without having made many changes. Once those 8 values are given their appropriate weight I then produced a team value. I then created a value for their schedule and solved for the expected wins against that strength of schedule.
DVOA Wins: These are taken from Football Outsiders 2009 Pro Football Prospectus. Their formula is fairly complicated and is based on the success rates of each play of the game (Defense adjusted Value Over Average, or, DVOA). It creates values for offense, defense, and special teams. The formula looks for anomalies like an over performance on third down that is unlikely to be repeated. When a team has effectively been “clutch” they generally expect a regression. Football Outsiders has been very good at predicting teams who are due for a rise or a fall, although to be fair they also had the Steelers winning 7.2 games last season. I highly recommend that you check out their website (www.footballoutsiders.com if you wish to learn more about their methodology.)
Kubiak: The head coach of the Houston Texans.
KUBIAK: The player projection system created by Football Outsiders. If you are a baseball fan you should think of PECOTA as the inspiration.
Alright, if other terms need defining I’ll do so at the time. Please enjoy my 2009 Football Preview, starting with the NFC West:
Arizona Cardinals
Expected Wins: 8.31
Scouting Wins: 9.82
DVOA Wins: 5.6
2008 Record: 9-7
Cardinals 26, Steelers 23. 2:20 left in the game. 1st and 20 for the Steelers from their 12 yard line.
That didn’t work out well for the Cardinals but in retrospect it really is astonishing how close the Cardinals came to winning the Super Bowl. There is no team in the NFL with as much disagreement between the scouts and the DVOA projections. I’ll outline the issues that cause this disagreement:
Kurt Warner: He’s 38 years old. He has a history of injury. Last year Warner passed for 30 TD’s and 4476 yards, averaged 7.1 yards per attempt, and only threw 12 interceptions. KUBIAK suggests he will still be quite good (25 TD, 14 int, 6.2 YPA, 4000+ yards). However, given his injury history and the fact he is 38 years old, there is a significant chance he will be sidelined. Matt Leinart might not be a bust, but last year Kurt Warner was a superstar. There is a very good chance that in 2009 neither Leinart nor Warner will be able to match Warner’s 2008 level of production. Clean living might have kept Warner in better health than might otherwise be expected but he has taken a lot of hits over his career. The scouts think only one other NFC team has a better quarterback situation (New Orleans).
The offensive line: The scouts feel the Cardinals have an average offensive line, which is to say the best offensive line in their division. Last year the Cardinals’ starters on the offensive line missed zero games. That is exceedingly fortunate. Good luck is not a repeatable skill and the Cardinals’ offensive line depth will likely be tested. I am a little more impressed with the Cardinals offensive line depth than Football Outsiders is.
The loss of both coordinators: The scouts couldn’t care less. It isn’t something that is easy to measure and there are few coordinators whose value is obvious to an observer. However, FO suggests that teams that lose coordinators tend to regress in the following season.
Schedule: FO lists the Cardinals as having the 3rd-hardest schedule in the NFL. The scouts think quite differently and have the Cardinals gaining a quarter of a win due to the ease of their schedule.
Effort: After pretty much locking up the division the Cardinals relaxed. The scouts consider the last six games of the 2008 regular season an aberration. Instead, they consider the playoff run a more accurate prediction of the level of talent for the Cardinals. Whether or not the scouts are correct to write off the end of the regular season, it is not something that a machine or an algorithm can do. As far as DVOA knows the doglike effort put forth by the Cardinals in their 47-7 loss to the Patriots in the snow should be weighted like any other game. The Cardinals’ defense was absolutely awful when down a touchdown or more. Someone more poetic than I might say the Cardinals lacked fighting spirit. I’ll say that the Cardinals were frontrunners that rarely gave top effort in the face of defeat, particularly once they had little to gain from a victory.
Some other things that should be noted about the Cardinals:
The got absolutely destroyed by shotgun formations. They were about average on defense against non-shotgun formations. They had a Pythagorean record of 8-8. They went 6-0 vs. their division but 3-7 vs. the rest of the NFL in the regular season.
Alright, you now have a pretty good sense of what the scouts and DVOA thinks about the Cardinals, but what about me? Their offense is one-dimensional but it is unclear how much that matters. RB Tim Hightower ran for 10 touchdowns, but he was awful in pass protection and as a runner as well (touchdowns are not a great stat by which to judge a running back, I’ll cover this in a separate article). The Cardinals drafted Beanie Wells, a tremendously talented power runner out of Ohio State. He has had injury troubles and isn’t currently considered to be much of a threat in the passing game, although with some training should be reasonable in pass protection. Even with Wells the running game is not what teams will gameplan against. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston each had over 1000 yards receiving last year. Fitzgerald in particular was a monster. His performance in the playoffs was absolutely dominant. Kurt Warner is not particularly mobile (I’m being kind, and also glossing over his fumbling problem).
The defensive line has injury concerns, particularly with DT Gabe Watson. He has played sparingly in the preseason so far. DT Darnell Dockett has become a very good player, as has weak side LB Karlos Dansby. I like 2nd round pick DE Cody Brown, although he probably will be used as a pass rush linebacker for now. The secondary is pretty talented. SS Adrian Wilson is still a star, although now on the wrong side of 30, he might start slipping. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is exceedingly talented, although not much of a tackler. If he continues to improve from his rookie season he will become a star. The Cardinals imported CB Bryant McFadden from the Steelers. McFadden was fine in pass coverage, but excellent against the run. I like safeties Antrel Rolle and rookie Rashad Johnson. The Cardinals drafted Johnson out of Alabama where he developed nicely under Nick Saban’s staff. Both he and Cody Brown should help the fairly awful special teams coverage units.
The Cardinals aren’t a great team but they do have great talent on offense and play in a very weak division. I don’t expect the Cardinals to run away with the division this year, but their last 4 games are @ San Francisco, @ Detroit, St. Louis, and Green Bay. A sweep of those games should get the Cardinals to 10 wins. I’m not that optimistic so I’ll pencil in the Cardinals for a 9-7 record. Oh, one odd note: In 20 games last season not once did the Cardinals play a game decided by 3 points or less. Perhaps they needed more fighting spirit?
San Francisco 49ers
Expected Wins: 7.22
Scouting Wins: 6.13
DVOA Wins: 5.7
2008 Record: 7-9
I am going to presume that they eventually sign Michael Crabtree. I think he’s a better player than Darrius Heyward-Bey, but he is going to earn significantly less. It is not the 49ers fault that the Raiders drafted Heyward-Bey three spots ahead of Crabtree. As a general rule only quarterbacks command a premium above slot. If Crabtree cannot come to terms with this fact things might turn ugly. Even with him the 49ers look to have an exceedingly weak offense. The 49ers tried to sign Kurt Warner but failed and now will have a quarterback battle between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. Right now Hill is the favorite for the job. The 49ers’ new offensive coordinator is Jimmy Raye and the expectation is that he will promote a ball control offense built around Frank Gore. Actually, let me digress a bit here:
The 49ers offensive line has a couple of very good players: center Eric Heitmann and left tackle Joe Staley. The 49ers signed ex-Steeler Marvel Smith to play right tackle. The rest of the offensive line is ok, but not great. Frank Gore has had much more success when Staley was on the right side of the line as Staley is a highly aggressive tackle and he prefers to attack the line of scrimmage and the player he is facing. As a left tackle his most important job is defending Shaun Hill’s (Alex Smith’s?) blind side. Marvel Smith has had back problems and his ability to attack the line of scrimmage is limited. Last year the 49ers’ offense was significantly more effective out of shotgun formations than standard formations. I like the idea of a ball control offense (I was raised on Bill Parcells’ NYG) but I wonder if the 49ers wouldn’t be better off switching the tackles and using more shotgun. Oh, one name to watch out for: offensive lineman Alex Boone. He’s an undrafted free agent out of Ohio State. He has some issues off the field, but he also has 2nd round talent. If he can get things under control he can become part of the 49ers future.
Apart from Crabtree I’m not sure who else can scare defenses. Tight end Vernon Davis has never lived up to his potential, although perhaps the Samurai (coach Mike Singletary) has kicked his ass into gear. After Singletary was given the job, discipline improved immensely as the 49ers committed almost three fewer penalties a game. Wide receiver Isaac Bruce is clearly declining, although his work ethic has kept him competitive. There are a few other receivers on the 49ers who might step up, specifically Josh Morgan and Brandon Jones. Morgan needs to recover from some nagging injuries that bothered him last year. Actually, upon further consideration the 49ers do have some decent talent at WR but none of it is proven (save Bruce, but that was long ago).
Defensively the 49ers have finally chosen a side in the 4-3 vs. 3-4 debate and will be going with a 3-4 base defense. DE Justin Smith and ILB Patrick Willis are both excellent players. Linebackers Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson are very athletic but neither has been consistently good. Manny has bulked up and is expected to provide a pass rush. Takeo Spikes is aging but still seems to be effective. Apart from Smith I am not a fan of anyone else on the defensive line. Cornerback Nate Clements has been good but not great for the 49ers. Walt Harris is out for the season and the 49ers’ secondary looks pretty vulnerable right now. On the plus side the 49ers have excellent special teams units.
As much as I like Samurai Mike I can’t see the 49ers being a consistently competitive football team. 6-10.
St. Louis Rams
Expected Wins: 5.83
Scouting Wins: 5.83
DVOA Wins: 8.2
2008 record: 2-14
One of those is not like the other. Over the last two years the Rams are 5-27. In fact, by some measures they were the worst team in football last year, a sad feat given the existence of the 0-16 Lions. So why are the DVOA projections so optimistic?
Offensive line improvement: The offensive line should be healthier this year, and the additions of OT Jason Smith (2nd pick of the draft) and free agent center Jason Brown should help as well. Signing Brown was a definite coup for the Rams. An improved offensive line makes everyone on your offense better, and to a certain degree helps your defense as well by keeping them off the field and rested. Of course a bad offensive line gets coaches fired.
Regression to the mean: It is hard to be as bad as the Rams were last season, particularly in the red zone. Unless there is a systemic problem in the Rams’ offense they should dramatically improve their red zone results, even if they remain below average.
I’m willing to accept both as true, but there are some problems with this optimistic worldview:
Marc Bulger/Kyle Boller: Plan A and Plan B. Bulger had a great year in 2006 but it has been a long time since he has been an above average quarterback. Actually Boller wasn’t bad in 2006 either, but it was in a much smaller sample size. Since then both have been either bad, injured, or both. Furthermore the Rams have no proven receivers, although Donnie Avery looks like he might develop into an excellent receiver if he can stay healthy. On the plus side Steven Jackson should benefit from the improved offensive line.
Defensively the Rams have some issues. Despite the presence of a decent amount of young talent in the form of DE Chris Long, DT Adam Carriker, and LB James Laurinaitis the front seven is still a weakness. DE Leonard Little isn’t the dominator he once was but he can still provide a bit of pressure. DE James Hall looks like he will be used as both a pass rush specialist and a defensive tackle from time to time. The Rams understand that their defensive line and linebacker corps need improvement and have taken steps to address that, but there is clearly more work to do. Free safety O.J. Otogwe is fantastic. Cornerback Ron Bartell is pretty good. After that there are a lot of question marks. The Rams drafted cornerback Bradley Fletcher in the 3rd round but right now he is more likely to help the Rams at special teams or as a safety than as a cornerback.
The Rams’ special teams are pretty good. Both punter Donnie Jones and kicker Josh Brown are well above average, although Jones might not be quite as good as he appears because he rarely was asked to kick a coffin corner. He also might not have the hang time to go with the distance of his punts, so his coverage team sometimes has a tougher job than most.
I think new coach Steve Spagnuolo has the Rams on the road to recovery but I’d be shocked in the Rams achieve mediocrity this season. Even if the offense benefits from the improved offensive line, the defense still has a lot of problems. I’ll be optimistic and give the Rams 1 more win than they had over the last two seasons, 6-10.
Seattle Seahawks
Expected Wins: 8.01
Scouting Wins: 8.06
DVOA Wins: 9.9
2008 Record: 4-12
OK, the Seahawks can take a mulligan on 2008. When you have to play the backups of the guys you signed off the street because everyone else got hurt, well, yeah I’ll cut you some slack. The general expectation for the Seahawks is for them to be slightly better than mediocre, but FO disagrees. Part of that disagreement is regression to the mean, but again, that seems to be covered. What then are the Seahawks’ strengths?
QB Matt Hasselbeck: He’s 34 years old so there have to be concerns about health and a general decline, but he had a great year two years ago and TJ Houshmandzadeh was added to his WR corps. KUBIAK is expecting a monster year from Hasselbeck, comparable to his 2007 season. I should note that as backups go, Senaca Wallace isn’t a bad choice, but he does not appear to be the quarterback of the future for the Seahawks.
The defensive front seven: A healthy DE Patrick Kearny will help the defense, as should the addition of rookie LB Aaron Curry. LB Lofa Tatupu had an off season last year but is still an elite defender and should be healthy this year after dealing with nagging thumb and groin injuries last season. The Seahawks traded for DT Corey Redding and signed DT Colin Cole to shore up the defensive line. Overall both the defensive line and LB corps grade out as above average, particularly the LB corps.
Last year was a fluke: The four years before last the Seahawks had 9, 13, 9, and 10 wins. As I said, the Seahawks get a mulligan on last year, but that doesn’t mean they get a guaranteed return to the playoffs.
The obvious weaknesses on the Seahawks are the running backs, the offensive line, and the secondary. The offensive line was ravaged by injuries last year, but even if they are healthy this season none are particularly strong at their position. LT Walter Jones used to be dominant but he’s 35 years old and has been worn down with injuries. The offensive line is moving to a zone blocking scheme but the personnel seems a bit oversized for the job. The Seahawks did draft center Max Unger in the second round and he should eventually strengthen the line, although it might not be this year. The Seahawks re-signed cornerback Ken Lucas so returning starter Marcus Trufant should benefit. If safety Deon Grant is healthy he is a tremendous player but he has been bothered by nagging leg injuries. The secondary might be a strength if all the players return to the peak form they displayed previously. Also, cornerback Josh Wilson is only 24 and he should show some improvement this year.
The Seahawks have kicker Olindo Mare and therefore are excellent on kickoffs. Punter Ryan Plackemeier was also well above average. In the division only San Franciscos’ special teams look to be better than Seattle’s, although it is pretty close between them.
The Seahawks appear to have the best defense in the NFC West, above average special teams, and an offense with a lot of players who have been good in the past. I understand DVOA’s love affair with the Seahawks and due to the exceedingly easy schedule I’ll be generous and suggest a 9-7 record.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
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