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The Math Behind 4th and 2
Posted by: | CommentsHello again,
Some of you might remember me from my preseason preview. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for Philadelphia to face New Orleans in the NFC championship game. But, that is not what I’d like to write about here. There is an issue I’d like to discuss:
4th and 2 from your own 28 yard line with 2:08 to go and a 6 point lead.
It has become old news at this point, but Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it will eventually be considered one of the turning points in NFL history. Specifically, it will help usher in an age of reason. New England wasn’t certain to win that game if they go for it and succeed, but for now I will assume that if they get the 1st down they win the game. Similarly, Indianapolis isn’t certain to win if they score a touchdown, but I will assume they win if they score. With those simplifications, here is the math:
Likelihood of failing to get a 1st down multiplied by the likelihood of failing to stop the Colts from scoring from around the 28 yard line vs. likelihood of failing to stop the Colts from scoring after a punt.
You can find a calculator set up for this here: http://belichick-decision.heroku.com/
I can tell you a few things in this piece: At the time of Belichick’s decision, in-game trading markets implied the following odds of each event:
55% likelihood that the Patriots get the 1st down.
64% likelihood that the Colts score if the Patriots fail to get the 1st down.
36% likelihood that the Colts score if the Patriots punt the ball.
Based on these numbers, the Patriots’ chance of winning increased from ~64% with a punt to ~71% if they went for it. When the Patriots’ offense returned to the field, the Colts fans went from jubilant to scared. Perhaps they intuitively knew what the markets already understood. The New York Times Fifth Down Blog estimated the Patriots’ chances of winning at 70% if punting and 79% if going for it.
Either way the decision was not merely correct, but obviously so. It isn’t close. Every time a coach makes the conservative choice to punt in a similar situation, that coach is hurting his team’s chances of winning. There are some excellent academic publications on the subject of 4th down decisions, and there are high school teams that have taken such analysis to heart. Here is a link to David Romer’s paper on the subject:
I should note that Belichick was an economics major who has at various times shown familiarity with Romer’s work.
Overcoming risk aversion isn’t easy. A coach in Belichick’s shoes must not only risk that his team fails to convert on fourth down, but that the media will portray him as stupid. Educated fans understand that every coach’s decision, not just fourth-and-short late-game situations, involve risk/reward calculations. The people who ridiculed Belichick’s decision as detrimental to his team (I’m looking at you Mr. King) are egregiously wrong. There are a lot of things to condemn Belichick for in that game, specifically his misuse of time outs, but that most-criticized decision was correct.
There are a few other issues where risk aversion obviously hurts football teams. I think teams are starting to realize that kicking a 20 yard field goal (or shorter) is strictly worse than attempting to score a touchdown. There are late game exceptions, but for the most part you score more points on average by going for a touchdown and you give your opponent worse field position on average.
Some other quick hits:
Teams are generally too conservative when determining when to go for 2. One example: a 5 point lead is not that much worse than a 6 point lead. A 7 point lead is much better than a 6 point lead. The Eagles eventually went for 2 with a 12 point lead, but there was no real reason to wait.
Oddly enough the Giants should have gone for 2 when they scored a late touchdown against the Eagles. If they succeed, they next touchdown wins for them. If not, they can still go for 2 on the next touchdown to send the game to overtime. Assuming overtime is a 50-50 proposition, and remembering that the decision only matters if the Giants score two touchdowns, the question is which is more likely: The Giants succeeding on the first 2 point conversion attempt, or the Giants failing on 2 attempts? Assuming extra points are 100% (We’ll ignore the fact that the Eagles had already missed an XP attempt earlier in the evening), the break even conversion % of around 38.8%. Obviously teams convert at a much higher rate than that.
16-0 vs. Resting your players: The Patriots did not lose to the Giants because they were tired from going for the record. The Saints and Colts are going to have a bye before their first playoff game, and are going to have another bye if they win their respective championship games. I can’t argue against resting any players who are playing with pain (possibly all of the non-kicking specialists), but I don’t think going for 16-0 hurts a team’s chances of being a Super Bowl champion. Also, I’d like Mercury Morris to shut up. The ‘85 Bears would have destroyed the 1972 Dolphins.
Thanks for reading,
Seth Burn
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
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The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: AFC East
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Divisional Previews
NFC
NFC West
NFC South
NFC North
NFC East
AFC
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
Buffalo Bills
Expected Wins- 7.21
Scouting Wins- 8.27
DVOA Wins- 5.3
2008 Record- 7-9
7-9, 7-9, 7-9. I suppose Lions fans would love to have that as their last three years, but fans are not happy in Buffalo. The Bills are not one of the NFL’s wealthier franchises. A few more bad seasons and we might be looking at the Toronto Bills. Surprisingly, the Bills won the Terrell Owens derby. Owens signed a 1-year contract and will attempt to prove 2008 was just an off year, but I doubt he will regain his old form. In 2008 Owens was absolutely awful against press coverage. He now is relegated to being a #2 or slot receiver, as opposed to being a top threat. No matter how Owens performs, the deal was a financial success. The Bills sold over 55,000 season tickets, the third-highest in the franchise’s history.
Quarterback Trent Edwards completed over 65% of his passes last season, but only averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. The Bills fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert so I am not sure if their planned rollout of the new K-Gun offense has been canceled. If the Bills do come out with a no-huddle shotgun offense, Edwards will have a chance to prove he can be more than a dink and dunk quarterback.
Running back Marshawn Lynch will start the season with a three-game suspension. He gained over 1,300 yards from the line-of-scrimmage last season, but is not the game-breaking threat that the Bills had expected him to become. RB Fred Jackson was quite effective in limited usage in 2008 and will begin 2009 as the starter. The Bills signed RB Dominic Rhodes to provide some depth for the first few games of the season, and perhaps as a 3rd option thereafter.
Wide receiver Lee Evans is the Bills’ best offensive player. He is an elite deep threat. If Terrell Owens can draw some of the defense’s attention, Evans should have a monster year. Evans has faced near-constant double-teams and will probably continue to do so until Owens proves himself. WR Josh Reed is a decent slot receiver. The Bills have a deep receiving corps, but only Evans and Owens are considered threats.
The Bills’ offensive line has been reworked. They signed Geoff Hangartner to play center, drafted Alex Mack (1st round) and Andy Levitre (2nd round) to play right and left guard, moved right tackle Langston Walker to left tackle, and moved Brad Butler from right guard to right tackle. Whew. If the rookies live up to their draft status, the line will be much improved over 2008. There are major concerns about the tackles, particularly in run blocking, and the Bills might make a trade to improve their offensive line.
The Bills’ pass rush dropped off noticeably after defensive end Aaron Schobel went out due to injury. The Bills drafted defensive end Aaron Maybin with their second 1st round pick. He might be the best pure pass rusher in the draft, but he missed training camp and won’t be used on run downs. Defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcus Stroud were quite effective for the Bills in 2008 and both return as starters. The Bills have solid defensive line depth.
Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny led the team with 110 tackles in 2008 and was highly effective patrolling the middle of the field. LB Keith Ellison plays very well in space and is a very good pass defender. LB Kawika Mitchell should benefit from the return of Schobel. Mitchell led the team with 4 sacks in 2008 and should have even more this year.
Cornerback Terrence McGee had a rough 2008. The ascension of CB Leodis McKelvin should take some heat off of McGee. The Bills have great CB depth and I feel they stole CB Jalrus Byrd in the 2nd round. Byrd will move over to free safety. Strong safety Donte Whitner is healthy. Whitner is a ferocious hitter and will be effective playing near the line of scrimmage. If Byrd is not ready to start, Ko Sumpson or Bryan Scott will start at free safety.
Even with kicker Rian Lindell having an off year in 2008, the Bills had the best special teams in football. They consistently have great special teams and should again in 2009.
The Bills’ defense will go as the pass rush goes. If the Bills can pressure the quarterback, their defense should be very good. The Bills were 4-1 before Schobel got hurt. Of course, just because the Bills have Schobel back and added Maybin, there is no guarantee they get to the quarterback. On offense the addition of Owens could juice up the passing game. I have very low expectations of that actually occurring. I do expect the defense to be better, but the schedule is also harder. I expect Owens to implode at some point and take the Bills’ season with him. 6-10.
Miami Dolphins
Expected Wins- 7.03
Scouting Wins- 7.24
DVOA Wins- 6.4
2008 Record- 11-5
I am a Chad Pennington fan. He has the weakest arm in the NFL and still managed to lead the Dolphins to 11 wins in 2008. A repeat will be very tough. The wildcat offense surprised teams last year. The Dolphins drafted quarterback Pat White in the 2nd round of the draft. White will add a passing threat to the wildcat. Backup QB Chad Henne has a strong arm and will see playing time if Pennington struggles or the Dolphins fall out of contention.
Running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are both in contract years. Williams was ineffective in high leverage situations last year, although he did have some success in the wildcat. Ronnie Brown is in fantastic physical condition and should have another great year.
Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. has amazing potential. He still needs to improve his technique but managed to be the Dolphins’ most productive receiver in 2008. If he continues to improve he could develop into a star. WR Greg Camarillo is coming off ACL surgery and could lose his job. WR Davone Bess was a pleasant surprise and filled in well after Camarillo was injured. The Dolphins drafted wide receivers Patrick Turner (3rd round) and Brian Hartline (4th round) to improve their receiving corps. Hartline should provide an immediate boost to the special teams. Turner is likely to be used as a goal line threat. Pat White might also be used as a slot receiver. Tight ends Anthony Fasano and David Martin are both excellent as receivers. Neither is a great blocker.
The Dolphins are blessed with a great pair of offensive tackles. Left tackle Jake Long was a Pro Bowl alternate in his rookie season and is still improving. Right tackle Vernon Carey played very well in 2008 and earned a six-year contract. The interior of the line is not quite as strong, but center Jake Grove should be a better fit for the offense than departed center Samson Satele.
Linebacker Joey Porter had a monster year in 2008. His 17.5 sacks were second most in the NFL. It is highly unlikely he comes close to that this year and the Dolphins have taken steps to give him help. They re-signed defensive end Jason Taylor and imported linebacker Cameron Wake from the CFL. I’m not sure how much Taylor has left, but Wake is an excellent speed rusher and should provide an immediate boost on passing downs. The pressure will be on defensive tackle Tony McDaniel. The Dolphins had to let DT Vonnie Holliday leave due to salary cap considerations and McDaniel is going to get those snaps. Overall the Dolphins don’t have a great front seven, but it should be good enough to get the job done with a little help from the secondary.
The Dolphins grabbed cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft, respectively. They will be asked to grow up fast as CB Will Allen is the only starter left from last season. Allen is still playing at a high level. The Dolphins signed CB Eric Green and he will play across from Allen until one of the two rookies plays well enough to break into the starting lineup. Strong safety Yeremiah Bell has excellent field coverage. The Dolphins will miss departed safety Renaldo Hill. Gibril Wilson will take over Hill’s role. Wilson was extremely productive as a strong safety for the Raiders. Actually, upon further reflection, Wilson and Bell are two of the most physical safeties in the NFL and could prove to be an excellent pairing.
The Dolphins’ lousy special teams were a reflection of the coverage units, not of the kicker and punter, who were both quite good, particularly kicker Dan Carpenter. The coverage units were not a point of emphasis for the Dolphins, so I don’t expect much improvement.
By most objective measures the Dolphins should have a losing record this season. They start at Atlanta, then face Indianapolis on Monday Night Football, and follow that up with a trip to San Diego. The schedule eases up a bit after that, but it is still one of the hardest in the NFL. Still, I have faith in Chad Pennington and Bill Parcells. I’ll give the Dolphins the win I took away from the Patriots due to the Seymour trade and that will leave them with an 8-8 record.
New England Patriots
Expected Wins- 11.48
Scouting Wins- 10.82
DVOA Wins- 11.4
2008 Record- 11-5
The Steelers are the defending champions. The Chargers are the DVOA wunderkinds. The New England Patriots are the team to beat. They are the favorites and remain so even after the trade of Richard Seymour. They may not have won a Super Bowl in the last four years (while the Steelers won twice in that span), but quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are still the most respected people at their respective positions.
Brady is coming off a major ACL injury and hurt his shoulder in a preseason game against the Redskins. He is expected to regain his old form. It helps that he is throwing to wide receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss. There are positional battles over the third WR spot and at tight end, but regardless of how they turn out, the Patriots’ passing game is still terrifying to opposing defenses. Defenses are forced to spread out and that leaves holes for the Patriots’ running game. Belichick knows running backs are fungible. Expect running backs Sammy Morris. Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, and Laurence Maroney to all get carries. If Brady goes down again, backup Andrew Walter is exceedingly unlikely to reprise the role played by Matt Cassel. The offensive line was not as bad as it looked last season, but remember the Super Bowl two years ago (Giants 17, Patriots 14). The line has played together for years, but is not terribly athletic. The Patriots used one of their four 2nd round picks on offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer. He has been impressive in the preseason and could step in at right tackle.
Trading defensive end Richard Seymour for a 1st round pick is a great long term move, but it will hurt the Patriots in 2009. Seymour is still a dominant defender, strong against both the run and the pass. With him, the Patriots were expected to bounce back defensively from a rough 2008. Without him, the Patriots’ defensive line looks a bit thin. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork is a powerful force up the middle. The Patriots grabbed defensive tackle Ron Brace in the 2nd round. Brace should be able to spell Wilfork and keep him fresh. Defensive end Ty Warren is quite good, although the loss of Seymour might hurt him. The Patriots have the depth along the defensive line needed to withstand the loss of Seymour, but he was a difference maker.
Miami exposed the Patriots’ linebackers in 2008. Veterans Tedy Buschi, Mike Vrabel, and Junior Seau are gone. Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo had an absolutely fantastic rookie season and now takes over the leadership of the defense. Linebacker Adalius Thomas is returning from an arm injury. Linebackers Pierre Woods, Gary Guyton, and 3rd round pick Tyone McKenzie form a youth movement that the Patriots sorely needed. LB Shawn Crable was a 3rd round pick in 2008 and should be see some action this season.
I have confidence that the defensive line and linebacker corps will hold up, but last year the Patriots’ secondary got absolutely torched. The Patriots signed cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs to take over the starting jobs. They drafted Darius Butler in the 2nd round. He is solid in coverage, but is not a good tackler. The Patriots’ other 2nd round pick was strong safety Patrick Chung. He will compete for playing time with strong safety James Sanders and free safety Brandon Meriweather.
Kicker Stephen Gostkowski deserved his Pro Bowl selection. The Patriots’ special teams are going through a bit of a transitional phase, but I don’t foresee too many problems. They drafted a long snapper, signed a new special teams coach, and have to decide on a new kick returner. The coverage units should be improved from last season.
The Patriots’ defense has become younger and faster (Shawn Springs excepted), but with the loss of Seymour, I’m not certain it’s better. The offense is all about Brady. Even without him the Patriots put up 11 wins. There are concerns about the defense. There are concerns about the offensive line. There are concerns about Brady’s health. There are no perfect teams. The Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL and should be competing with the Chargers for the best record in the AFC. With Seymour I’d go with 13-3, but without him 12-4 seems about right. 12-4.
New York Jets
Expected Wins- 7.16
Scouting Wins- 8.10
DVOA Wins- 6.2
2008 Record- 8-8
Some teams take their identity from other teams. Indianapolis’s defense was a descendent of Tampa Bay’s. Houston’s offensive line philosophy is borrowed from Denver. Kansas City is attempting to clone New England’s offense. The New York Jets are attempting to become Baltimore North, at least on defense. I can’t deny the appeal, but I don’t expect much from the Jets in 2009. Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were not typical rookie quarterbacks, and the Jets can’t expect that type of success the Ravens and Falcons experienced in 2008. Quarterback Mark Sanchez is the man the Jets believe will take them back to the Super Bowl. I watched Sanchez in college and I swear that I don’t get it. I thought he was a product of the talent around him. As a general rule you need a good quarterback to win the Super Bowl (and now for the rebuttal, Trent Dilfer). I can’t blame the Jets for going after the guy they believe in, but I am unconvinced.
Sanchez won’t have to carry the load on offense. If there is one thing that angered me about the 2008 Jets, it was their refusal to remain committed to the running game. The Jets have two Pro Bowl running backs, although one was invited as a kick return specialist. RB Thomas Jones led the AFC in rushing in 2008. He’ll have to share carries in 2009 with rookie running back Shonn Green. Green isn’t quick, but he should help the Jets improve their short yardage offense. RB Leon Washington is an elite scatback.
Wide receiver Jerrico Cotchery was a mediocre #2 receiver and is now being asked to step up and take the top spot. WR Chansi Stuckey was good in limited usage in 2008 and now has a chance to prove himself. The potential star is WR David Clowney. He is the fastest receiver the Jets have, and has been a preseason star, but only caught 2 passes in 2008 due to a collarbone injury. Tight end Dustin Keller blossomed in 2008 and should become one of Mark Sanchez’s favorite targets.
The real stars of the Jets offense are in the trenches. The Jets spent a lot of money (free agents left guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody), high draft picks (center Nick Mangold and left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson), and, well, right guard Brandon Moore was an undrafted free agent in 2002. He kind of messes up the narrative, but he played well in 2008 so I’ll forgive him. Ferguson was vastly improved in 2008, although he still has trouble against sheer power.
I hope defensive tackle Kris Jenkins is fully recovered from his herniated disk injury, because he was a monster for the Jets in 2008. Flanking Jenkins will be defensive ends Shaun Ellis and Marques Douglas. Ellis led the Jets with 8 sacks in 2008, but will have to miss the 1st game of 2009 due to a suspension. I’m worried about the Jets’ defensive line depth, as all three starters are on the wrong side of 30, and Jenkins has questionable endurance.
I love the pickup of free agent inside linebacker Bart Scott. He’ll be paired with another good ILB, David Harris. They’ll be flanked by outside linebackers Calvin Pace and Bryon Thomas. Pace was very effective in 2008 and the Jets will miss him early in 2009 as he starts the season with a 4 game suspension. Trust me on this: linebacker Vernon Gholston sucks in practice too. The Pace suspension gives Gholston an opportunity to work himself back into the rotation. My expectations are… low.
Cornerback Darrelle Revis is excellent. Revis needed help so the Jets traded for CB Lito Sheppard. CB Dwight Lowery is a good fit against slot receivers. Free safety Jim Leonhard should be able to replace Abram Elam. Strong safety Kerry Rhodes will be able to play closer to line of scrimmage with the addition of Leonhard. The Jets’ secondary looks pretty good on paper, especially if Sheppard can regain the form he displayed in 2006.
Under Mike Westhoff the Jets have consistently had good special teams units. 2009 looks to be no exception, although the Jets could use more consistency from whoever wins the starting punter job.
Well, the Jets can run the ball, stop the run, rush the passer, and cover receivers. It wasn’t a fluke that the Jets started 8-3 in 2008. If Sanchez is everything the Jets’ brass hopes, the Jets can make the playoffs in 2009. I’m a Jets fan so I’ll predict 6-10 and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
AFC East
New England Patriots- 12-4
Miami Dolphins- 8-8
Buffalo Bills- 6-10
New York Jets- 6-10
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers- 11-5
Baltimore Ravens- 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals- 6-10
Cleveland Browns- 6-10
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts- 11-5
Tennessee Titans- 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars- 8-8
Houston Texans - 7-9
AFC West
San Diego Chargers- 12-4
Oakland Raiders- 6-10
Kansas City Chiefs- 5-11
Denver Broncos- 5-11
1. New England Patriots- 12-4
2. San Diego Chargers- 12-4
3. Pittsburgh Steelers- 11-5
4. Indianapolis Colts- 11-5
5. Baltimore Ravens- 9-7
6. Tennessee Titans- 9-7
AFC Playoffs
Wilcard Weekend:
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Divisional Round:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Diego Chargers
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
AFC Championship Game:
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
AFC Champion:
New England Patriots
Super Bowl XVIV in Miami:
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
Patriots 27, Eagles 21.
Man I hope I’m wrong about that. Enjoy the season and thanks for reading.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
Popularity: unranked [?]
The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: AFC West
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Divisional Previews
NFC
NFC West
NFC South
NFC North
NFC East
Denver Broncos
Expected Wins- 6.05
Scouting Wins- 4.77
DVOA Wins- 4.9
2008 Record- 8-8
Neck beard! Perhaps a decent pirate name. Not sure that’s what you look for in a starting quarterback. There is no precedent for what the Broncos did this offseason: never before in the history of the NFL has a young quarterback as productive as Jay Cutler been traded. Brett Favre and John Elway were unproven (Elway was a #1 draft pick who held out, Favre was a backup). No position in sports is more important. There is a reason teams are willing to take huge risks and trade up in the draft to pick the guy they think can lead their franchise for a decade.
The Broncos had been lucky enough to find such a player, yet traded him before his prime. In return the Broncos got the Bears’ first round picks in 2009 and 2010, as well as a neck beard. According to DVOA, in 2008 the Broncos had the 31st ranked defense, 31st ranked special teams, and the 2nd ranked offense. I don’t care how petulant Cutler had become, trading him was a mistake and new coach Josh McDaniels has a lot to prove.
It is an understatement to suggest I am not sold on any of the Broncos’ quarterbacks. QB Kyle “Neck Beard” Orton was pretty good with Chicago last season before he was injured. However, Orton has looked awful in the preseason, and if you ask any Broncos fan about him, I’d expect their answer to include expletives. The Broncos signed QB Chris Simms, who might be able to step in if Orton falters. Simms has not been productive since 2005. Perhaps good health will allow him to reclaim his old form. Rookie QB Tom Brandstater is not ready to start in the NFL and will need to be developed.
Over the last decade the Broncos’ running game has been built on an excellent offensive line and interchangeable running backs. This offseason the Broncos signed running backs J.J. Arrington (who has since been cut after failing a physical), LaMont Jordan, and Correll Buckhalter. In addition, they drafted Knowshon Moreno with the 14th pick in the draft. Moreno is versatile, as is Buckhalter, and they should be able to give the offense some flexibility. Jordan is more of a physical presence and should help the Broncos move the ball in short yardage situations.
Disgruntled wide receiver Brandon Marshall is a wild card. He might be traded over the next few days, he might be suspended for part of the regular season, or he might continue to be the Broncos’ most productive wide receiver. If he is gone, receivers Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and Eddie Royal will find it tough to separate from coverage. With Marshall they should be able to find a little more free space, as Marshall will demand attention. Tight end Tony Scheffler might have fewer passes sent his way under McDaniel’s game plans, but he’s been quite effective for the Broncos. Rookie tight end Richard Quinn is expected to be a blocking specialist.
The Broncos had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in 2008. That group should remain one of the best so long as they stay healthy. Left tackle Ryan Clady is the star of the group, but overall the line functions quite well as a unit. Injuries would test the Broncos’ depth, as the backups are inexperienced.
The Broncos’ defensive line and linebacker corps are not worthy of too much ink. The most talented players are inside linebacker D.J. Williams and rookie defensive end Robert Ayers. There are concerns about Ayers’s character. Actually, let me say that I was surprised that the Broncos only used one of their ten draft choices on front-seven players. The Broncos will likely be weak against the run while providing little or no pass rush.
The one good area of the Broncos’ defense is their secondary, although the starters are fairly old. Cornerback Champ Bailey battled injuries last season but should still be one of the best cornerbacks in football. He’ll be joined by Andre Goodman. Goodman had his best season in 2008 but it might have been a fluke. Rookie cornerback Alphonso Smith has excellent athleticism and coverage skills, but lacks size and might be limited to nickel or #2 cornerback roles. Veteran safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill are both on the decline. None of the Broncos’ starting secondary players are under the age of 31. Rookie safety (and converted cornerback) Darcel McBath should see some playing time, particularly if one of the starters becomes ineffective.
The Broncos’ special teams were awful last season. They feel the problems were mostly in coverage, and I agree it needed improvement. However, kicker Matt Prater might also prove to be part of the problem. Being a kicker in Denver has some advantages and it will be interesting to see how effective Prater is on the road (and once it turns cold in Denver). The addition of rookie safety David Bruton and defensive lineman Darrell Reid should improve the special teams coverage.
The DVOA projections suggest that the Broncos have the toughest schedule in the NFL. The Broncos get to play New England, Pittsburgh, the NFC East, and road games at Baltimore and Indianapolis. They do get four games vs. the Chiefs and Raiders, but Denver also has to face the Chargers twice. This could be an absolutely awful season for the Broncos. I honestly feel I am being charitable in giving the Broncos a 5-11 record. There is a lot of offensive talent and I trust teams with good offensive lines, but the Broncos reek of an incompetence not often seen outside of Oakland or Cincinnati. If nothing else it should be fun to watch whatever happens.
Kansas City Chiefs
Expected Wins- 5.99
Scouting Wins- 4.42
DVOA Wins- 6.7
2008 Record- 2-14
Like their division rivals in Denver, the Chiefs experienced a significant upheaval in the offseason. Also like Denver, they looked towards New England for new blood at the top. Unlike the Broncos they successfully traded for quarterback Matt Cassel. Cassel is expected to miss the Chiefs’ first game in Baltimore, but should be able to return shortly after that. Without Cassel, quarterbacks Tyler Thigpen, Brodie Croyle, and Matt Gutierrez all inspire similarly small amounts of confidence. Frankly I’m not sold on Cassel either. By the end of the season he looked great for the Patriots, but it is difficult to know how well he will perform outside of New England.
Running back Larry Johnson is no longer the monster he was in 2006 (partly because his offensive line isn’t as good as it was back then). Head coach Todd Haley is expected to use a lot of shotgun. That should benefit running back Jamaal Charles. He’s not a large, physical back, but he should work well in space. RB Kolby Smith should also get some carries backing up Johnson.
Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is one of the best young receivers in football, although he does have an occasional problem with drops. I’m not sure how much help he’ll get with tight end Tony Gonzalez now in Atlanta. WR Mark Bradley is decent as a 3rd or 4th option but he’s currently listed as the second starter. Tight end Brad Cottam is not going to replace Tony Gonzalez’s production and will be competing with tight ends Tony Curtis and Sean Ryan for playing time.
Left tackle Branden Albert had an excellent rookie season. He plays alongside Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the rest of the offensive line is questionable. The Chiefs brought in center Eric Ghiaciuc and guard Mike Goff to shore up the line. Right tackle Damion McIntosh is a weak link, although he can provide decent run blocking.
The Chiefs’ defensive line is quite young. The move to a 3-4 defense led to the selection of defensive end Tyson Jackson with the 3rd pick in the draft. Joining him will be 3rd round pick defensive tackle Alex Magee and defensive tackles Tank Tyler and Glenn Dorsey (who will play some snaps at defensive end this season). Defensive end Turk McBride will also see significant playing time. There is a ton of talent along the defensive line, although Dorsey was ineffective last season and needs to improve to avoid being labeled a bust. Defensive end Tamba Hali will likely see playing time as a pass-rush linebacker. He has looked excellent in the preseason.
Update: Ron Edwards appears to have won the starting nose tackle job, a bad sign for the Chiefs. The Chiefs traded for linebacker Mike Vrabel and he looks to hold down one of the starting outside linebacker jobs. He is a good team leader but his coverage skills have eroded. Linebacker Derrick Johnson is moving from the outside to the inside and should be able to handle the switch. He has been the Chiefs’ most effective linebacker. The Chiefs signed free agent linebacker Corey Mays with the expectation that he would back up Zach Thomas, but it appears he has won the starting job.
The Chiefs only had ten sacks last season, a record low. I expect more this season, but even so I have low expectations for the front seven. It is unclear how many of the players fit in well with the new scheme. The defense was awful last year so I’m not sure the Chiefs had much to lose by making the change, but it still will take some time to get the defense up to its peak level.
As a general rule I feel sympathy for cornerbacks forced to play behind a defensive line that generates little or no pass rush. Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr performed quite well as rookies. Flowers is the more athletically gifted of the two, although Carr is larger and can handle bigger receivers. Free safety Jarrod Page is a solid tackler who has ball hawk skills. Strong safety Bernard Pollard is a bit more inconsistent and could lose his job to Mike Brown. Pollard and Page have been effective in zone coverage.
The Chiefs’ special teams should be better in 2009. Punter Dustin Colquitt has been quite good. Kicking was more of a concern so the Chiefs drafted Ryan Succop to challenge Conner Barth. The kick coverage should also be improved as it was an area of concern for the coaching staff.
This is clearly a rebuilding year for the Chiefs. I expect to be better than they were last season. That doesn’t say much, and the truth is I don’t expect much from them. 5-11.
Oakland Raiders
Expected Wins- 5.63
Scouting Wins- 5.26
DVOA Wins- 6.0
2008 Record- 5-11
Denver and Kansas City might have had some front office turmoil this offseason, but there has been stability in Oakland.
Too bad.
The Raiders were once a premier NFL franchise. In fact, they played in a Super Bowl seven seasons ago. They lost that game and have been awful ever since. In fact, over the last 5 seasons the Raiders are 20-60. The Raiders proceeded to shock no one when they reached and grabbed wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey with the 7th pick in the draft. They then took safety Mike Mitchell in the second round. All I know about Mitchell is that he played at Ohio (not Ohio St.) and had a great workout on pro day. If those are the players the Raiders want, fine, but they could have traded down and still grabbed both. Their third round pick Matt Shaughnessy was expected to be taken on day two of the draft.
I wonder if owner Al Davis doesn’t merely want to win, but wants to win by being different. Strategically, his basic offensive philosophy of stretching the field with speed and then running the ball against a spread out defense makes sense. But the execution of this strategy has been awful, both in terms of roster construction and in terms of performance on the field. I was baffled when I discovered the Raiders traded their 2011 1st round pick to the Patriots for defensive end Richard Seymour. Seymour is still a great player, but is 30 years old and is in a contract year. Are the Raiders planning on re-signing him? Are they in win now mode? If so, why? The only reason I can think of is that Al Davis has become impatient. That is unfortunate, because the Raiders have a lot of work to do to become a competitive team.
The Raiders won their final two games of the 2008 season, including a win at Tampa Bay. In those games quarterback JaMarcus Russell played well. The Raiders signed quarterback Jeff Garcia in the offseason to put some pressure on Russell, but cut him before the season started. Running back Darren McFadden was hampered by a turf toe injury in 2008 but should be effective this season. RB Justin Fargas did not have great numbers last season, but that was partly due to a lack of other offensive options. RB Michael Bush had a monster game against Tampa Bay and should be an effective short yardage runner. Tight end Zach Miller was the only consistent Raider receiver.
Consistent is not a word I would apply to Heyward-Bey, but he is a deep threat and should produce enough big plays to create some room for the other receivers. WR Javon Walker is still recovering from knee surgery. The offensive line has undergone some changes. The Dolphins signed Raiders center Jake Grove, so the Raiders traded a 6th round pick to the Dolphins for center Samson Satele. 2007 3rd round pick Mario Henderson has developed and will start at left tackle. The Raiders signed free agent Khalif Barnes to start at right tackle. Robert Gallery and Cooper Carlisle will remain as the guards. Erik Pears will prove depth. The offensive line looks like it should be pretty good, particularly at run blocking.
The Raiders were merely lousy on defense in 2008 (as opposed to being terrible on offense). They had a decent pass rush and Nnamdi Asomugha, the best cornerback in the NFL. What they didn’t have was a run-stuffing lineman. They signed linebacker Greg Ellis (who will move to defensive end) and traded for defensive end Richard Seymour. I’m not certain these moves will solve the problem, although Seymour will make the defense stronger by virtue of adding to the pass rush. Seymour will replace DE Derrick Burgess, who was traded to the Patriots.
Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is so good that teams generally just avoid him. That means playing across from him is a very tough job. CB DeAngelo Hall failed as the second Raiders cornerback. CB Chris Johnson was up to the task and was given a four-year extension. There is little cornerback depth behind Asomugha and Johnson. Safeties Hiram Eugene, Michael Huff, and Tyvon Branch will all see plenty of playing time. Huff is trying to avoid being labeled a bust.
Punter Shane Lechler was fantastic in 2008. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is mediocre despite formerly having one of the strongest legs in the NFL. The Raiders were lousy on punt returns in 2007 and excellent in 2008. Your guess is as good as mine as to how they’ll be returning punts in 2009. Ditto returning kicks.
If the Raiders were coached by anyone I could trust I’d think they could rebound to mediocrity. Tom Cable is just some guy who is willing to work for Al Davis. The addition of Seymour is enough to convince me the Raiders are a hair above the Broncos and Chiefs, so I’ll go with 6-10.
San Diego Chargers
Expected Wins- 10.23
Scouting Wins- 11.52
DVOA Wins- 12.5
2008 Record- 8-8
DVOA’s favorite team. Their projection is a hair stronger than that of the 2007 New England Patriots. The 2008 Chargers had a below average defense. They paired it with the best offense in the NFL. The Chargers went 8-8 due to some lousy luck and some lousy officiating. They even had health issues afflict running back LaDainian Tomlinson, tight end Antonio Gates, cornerback Antonio Cromartie, and linebacker Shawne Merriman, who all suffered injuries of various severity. Despite all of this, the Chargers quietly managed to have the best passing game in the NFL. There is one huge potential problem for the Chargers: Norv Turner. He is a fine coordinator but . . . well, I’ll defer to Jerry Rice:
“Norv (Turner, then-coach of the Raiders) was never really head coach material … He couldn’t control the players and guys like Charles Woodson walked all over him. Woodson routinely showed up for practice and meetings when he felt like it, along with some teammates.”
Norv is an absolutely awful head coach. The question isn’t if he’ll cost the Chargers their season, the question is when.
Philip Rivers has become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He quietly threw for over 4,000 yards last season. More importantly, he averaged 7.8 yards-per-attempt. Billy Volek is a capable backup, but the drop off between Rivers and Volek is large.
Running back LaDainian Tomlinson is a wild card. Running backs can simply become ineffective with little or no warning. Maybe Tomlinson will bounce back this season now that he is no longer bothered by a turf toe injury. He was once a devastating threat, but my guess is those days are long gone. I expect he’ll be slightly better than last season. RB Darren Sproles is an excellent change of pace back, but cannot be expected to take most of the carries. In fact, it is difficult to imagine Sproles getting more than ten touches a game. If Tomlinson falters, RB Michael Bennett will be asked to step up. Jacob Hester has bulked up to become a fullback.
Wide receiver Vincent Jackson averaged more than 18 yards a catch last season. He was a devastating deep threat and should benefit from Gates’s return to health. WR Chris Chambers wasn’t quite as effective, although he too battled injuries. He probably isn’t as big a threat as he was in his prime, but he still can be productive. Malcolm Floyd gives the Chargers a third receiver at 6-foot-4 or taller (Gates is 6-4, Jackson is 6-5, as is Floyd). The Chargers are a very difficult team to match up against. There will usually be a mismatch somewhere; the only question is if Rivers will find it before the pass rush reaches him
The offensive line had an off year in 2008. Right tackle Jeremy Clary had a fairly awful year but it was his first as a starter and he should improve this season. Left tackle Marcus McNeill has recovered from neck surgery and should be back to his peak level. He was very good before he had to play through injuries. Left guard Kris Dielman was a Pro Bowl selection last year, and along with McNeill, forms a very strong left side of the line. Right guard Mike Goff left in free agency and was replaced by Kynan Forney, although 3rd round pick Louis Vasquez might get the job soon. Vasquez isn’t very mobile, but is wide and strong and could become an excellent run-blocking right guard. Overall the Chargers’ offensive line should be very good, but McNeill’s health and Clary’s development both bear watching.
Defensive tackle Jamal Williams is the key to San Diego’s defense. He is a massive run-stuffer who allows his teammates freedom to attack the quarterback. Linebacker Shawne Merriman’s return should bolster the pass rush, as should the additions of 1st round pick outside linebacker Larry English and 4th round pick defensive tackle Vaughn Martin. English is going to require some teaching to refine his techniques. Martin is going to move from tackle to end and will compete with defensive tackle Ryon Bingham to see who will replace departed defensive end Igor Olshansky. Defensive ends Luis Castillo and Jacques Cesaire will also see plenty of playing time. Castillo had an off year in 2008 but should bounce back now that Merriman is back to distract the offense. Losing Williams would be devastating, but there is significant depth on the rest of the line. The Chargers should be able to rotate players along the line to keep them fresh.
In addition to Merriman and English, the Chargers have a very talented linebacker corps. Outside linebacker Shaun Phillips is an excellent pass rusher. Inside linebacker Stephen Cooper is the defensive field general and no player outside of Williams is as important to the defense. Free agent acquisition ILB Kevin Dobbins has looked very good in the preseason. On paper the Chargers have an excellent front seven. Of course injuries could change that.
Cornerback Antonio Cromartie played through a fractured hip last season and his performance showed it. After an excellent 2007 he was awful in 2008. A return to his 2007 form would give the Chargers an excellent secondary. CB Quentin Jammer is still a solid #2 cornerback. CB Antoine Cason had an excellent rookie season as the nickelback and will eventually replace Jammer or Cromartie in the starting lineup. Free safety Eric Weddle was very good. Strong safety is a bit of a question mark. The incumbent is Clinton Hart but he is competing against cornerback Steve Gregory and rookie safety Kevin Ellison. I’m excited about Ellison’s potential as he was a ferocious hitter at USC. Depending on the role the strong safety is asked to play, all three of them should see some playing time in 2009.
Punter Mike Scifres destroyed the Colts in a playoff game. I’ve never seen a punter dominate a game before and don’t expect to see that again any time soon. Overall the Chargers have slightly above average special teams.
The Chargers have a lot of “ifs”. Most of them concern players coming back from injuries. In some cases the Chargers have quality depth in case of a relapse, but in other cases the drop off would be noticeable. If the Chargers are blessed with good health, no team is scarier; not even the New England Patriots. However, in addition to injuries, there is the Norv factor. The Chargers are too good for Norv to stop them from winning the division, but the Chargers are not getting to the Super Bowl without facing Pittsburgh or New England. At some point Norv is going to have to out-coach someone who has earned a Super Bowl ring. Do you trust Norv to do that? Neither do I. 12-4.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
Popularity: unranked [?]
The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: AFC South
Posted by: | CommentsPrevious Divisional Previews
NFC West
NFC South
NFC North
NFC East
Houston Texans
Expected Wins- 8.07
Scouting Wins- 7.08
DVOA Wins- 6.9
2008 Record- 8-8
There is a lot of good news in Houston. Matt Schaub has proven he can move the ball, and now just needs to stay healthy and stop turning it over. I’m more concerned about his durability. He is an accurate and strong-armed quarterback who should learn how to read defenses as he becomes more experienced. Running back Steve Slaton proved to be a great pick for the Texas as he gained 1,659 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. He isn’t the toughest runner, and he struggles a bit in short yardage situations, but there are specialty backs for just such situations. Right now the Texans are going with Chris Brown as Slaton’s backup. Brown should benefit from having a light workload as he has proven to be injury prone. Wide receiver Andre Johnson is playing at an elite level (think Larry Fitzgerald). Defenses double-teamed Johnson so WR Kevin Walter took advantage. Tight end Owen Daniels was another beneficiary, as he put up excellent numbers. Receivers David Anderson and Jacoby Jones were effective in limited usage. Andre Davis was ineffective in limited usage. The Texans drafted two tight ends that are going to have very different roles. TE Anthony Hill is going to be used primarily as a blocker, while James Casey is going to be groomed as Daniels’ backup. Casey was probably a steal in the fifth round.
Alright, the Texans have quality skill players on offense. Kudos to them. Unfortunately the Texans’ offensive line is not at the same level as the rest of the offense. I was surprised that the Texans went with center Antoine Caldwell in the third round, but I agree with the sentiment. Right tackle Eric Winston did a pretty good job, although not as good as the job he did in 2007. Left tackle Duane Brown got demolished, but he was a rookie and should improve. Left tackle Chester Pitts has successfully made the transition from tackle to guard. The Texans’ offensive line was exceedingly healthy last season and if there are injuries on the line the offense will likely struggle. I should note that the Texans are “Broncos South” as they are led by Gary Kubiak, and their offensive line is run by Alex Gibbs. Gibbs’ work in Denver and Atlanta was nothing short of exceptional. I’m just concerned he’s being asked to make chicken salad with chicken feathers.
The Texans’ defense was abysmal last year, particularly against the run. They picked up defensive end Antonio Smith to play opposite Mario Williams. Smith should be an upgrade over the departed Anthony Weaver, particularly against the run. Former first-round pick defensive tackle Amobi Okoye might become a bust, but he is still only 22 years old and could develop. The Texans drafted outside linebacker Brian Cushing in the first round, and signed OLB Cato June, but unfortunately June is injured and out for the season. Even without June, the Texans have decent depth at linebacker as ILB DeMeco Ryans and OLB Xavier Adibi are both returning. Ryans played very well last season but needs more help from the defensive line. OLB Zach Diles was going to spend more time on the bench this season with the addition of June, but now will be given a chance to build on his performance from last season.
Actually, upon further review, the Texans’ front seven looks like it could be pretty good. The only weak links are the tackles. Unfortunately, the defensive backfield is filled with weak links. Cornerback Dunta Robinson was superb when healthy but he was injured last season and I’m not sure he’s back to full strength. CB Jacques Reeves is nothing special. CB Fred Bennett looked promising a few years ago but has since been exposed and is now a nickel corner. Free safety Eugene Wilson is fine, but strong safety Nick Ferguson was ineffective and has been replaced by 2008 sixth-round pick Dominique Barber. Barber is athletic, but teams will attack him until he proves he can handle it.
Kicker Kris Brown is one of the best kickers in the NFL. The Texans were quite good returning punts, and exceedingly awful in punt coverage. Punter Matt Turk is near the end of his career and the Texans would be wise to find a replacement if he struggles.
I can understand all the optimism the Texans generate. They do have a dynamic offense and some talent on defense. With a softer schedule and an easier division I might share such optimism. As is, I see a losing season in Houston: 7-9.
Indianapolis Colts
Expected Wins- 9.77
Scouting Wins- 11.2
DVOA Wins- 11.5
2008 Record- 12-4
12-14-12-13-12. This combination represents the number of wins, per season, the Colts have had over the last five years. I wonder if we have taken the greatness of the Colts for granted because they only won one Super Bowl. Tony Dungy is gone but Peyton Manning remains. The Colts are no longer as one-sided as they used to be. The offense is still one of the best but the defense has now improved to the point where it is a strength. With Dungy gone the defense will likely become more aggressive.
Peyton Manning remains one of the best (and possibly THE best) quarterback in the NFL. He has a deep understanding of the game to go with his elite physical skills, although those skills do not include much in the way of mobility. If he goes down, the Colts are obviously done. Backup Jim Sorgi is generally good for one meaningless game a season.
Running back Joseph Addai was much less explosive than the Colts were expecting. The Colts only managed to average 80 yards on the ground a game. Addai is well rounded and is useful as either a blocker or receiver in the passing game. The Colts drafted RB Donald Brown in the first round; he was very productive at Connecticut and should provide a boost for the Colts.
Wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, and tight end Dallas Clark have been fantastic. All three should benefit with the removal of Marvin Harrison. TE Gijon Robinson’s job is to block. Wideouts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie are competing for the slot receiver job. I have more confidence in Garcon but I trust the Colts to choose wisely.
The Colts’ offensive line was decimated by injuries and it showed in the line’s performance. They re-signed center Jeff Saturday. Backup center Jamay Richard looks like a suitable replacement but center for the Colts is a tough position (due to having to change blocking assignments as Manning switches plays) and it will take Richard some time to adjust. Right tackle Ryan Diem is consistently good in pass protection but much less effective as a run blocker. The bigger issue for the Colts is left tackle Tony Ugoh. He has struggled with injuries and hasn’t developed into the power-blocker the Colts were expecting. He remains a solid pass-blocker, but much weaker in run blocking. In fact the entire offensive line seems to have been constructed with pass blocking as the main goal and run blocking as an afterthought.
In the Dungy era the Colts’ defense was based on speed and the Tampa-2 coverage principles. Simply put, the Colts’ defense traded size for speed and traded power against the run for more field coverage to stop the pass. In football, like life, there are a variety of tradeoffs we are forced to make. Head coach Jim Caldwell and defensive coordinator Larry Coyer are moving in different directions. They drafted defensive tackles Fili Moala (second round) and Terrance Taylor (fourth round), and brought back DT Ed Johnson (previously dismissed after a drug arrest). Defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are both explosive pass-rushers and will draw most of the offense’s attention. The Colts retained defensive tackles Raheem Brock and Eric Foster and can now rotate between size and speed.
I had as many sacks as the Colts linebacker corps did last season. Inside linebacker Gary Brackett rates pretty highly. The rest, well, let’s just say they wouldn’t attract too much attention as free agents.
The Colts’ secondary is excellent, although it does have some question marks. Cornerback Kelvin Hayden has developed into a top pro. CB Marlin Jackson is also very good but has to recover from an ACL tear. Tim Jennings is solid as a nickel cornerback. Rookie CB Jerrod Powers looks to be a good fit for the Colts. Strong safety Bob Sanders’s injury problems have given Melvin Bullitt a chance to develop, and he has proven to be quite capable when Sanders inevitably hurts himself. Free safety Antoine Bethea does an excellent job of playing centerfield while the strong safety cheats up near the line.
I don’t know why the Colts don’t care about their special teams units. Perhaps they simply didn’t want to make the tradeoffs required to have good coverage units. The Colts have been consistently bad on special teams. This off-season they lost one of their best special teams gunners, Darrell Reid, to free agency. Perhaps in a few years the Colts will have rebuilt their special teams units, but for now they look awful.
The Titans won the AFC South last season but it seems that so long as the Colts have Peyton Manning they remain the favorite to win the division. It is only due to the presence of a fairly tricky schedule that I have the Colts going just 11-5.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Expected Wins- 8.05
Scouting Wins- 6.93
DVOA Wins- 10.2
2008 Record- 5-11
10.2? It isn’t as if Football Outsiders thinks that the Jaguars have an easy schedule. Their projected average opponent has a DVOA of 1.4%, which is right around the median (15th toughest schedule according to Football Outsiders). The Jaguars weren’t quite as bad as that 5-11 record suggests. (6.2 Pythagorean wins), but even so, 10.2 wins is a huge improvement. The 2008 Jaguars had massive injury problems, particularly along their offensive line. They lost guards Vince Manuwai and Mo Williams in the first game. Center Brad Meester missed the first six games of the season. Tackles Khalif Barnes and Tony Pashos had off years. Overall, the offensive line was a disaster last year and the entire offense suffered because of it. KUBIAK loves when teams use high draft picks on offensive lineman and the Jaguars drafted two of the best: offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton. I love both picks. The Jaguars also signed offensive tackle Tra Thomas. The offensive line should be much improved but there are other issues the Jaguars have to deal with.
Quarterback David Garrard proved in 2007 that he can run an offense. He had a lousy season in 2008 but much of that can be blamed on his offensive line and receiving corps. When he did have some time to throw, usually from the shotgun, he was highly effective. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew is exceptional despite his small size. He has an elite mix of quickness, agility, hands, and vision that allow him to decimate defenses when in space. I’m not sure he’ll be able to physically handle the workload without the help of RB Fred Taylor. The Jaguars got great value in the seventh round with RB Rashad Jennings. While he played most of his college career at Liberty, he started as a freshman at Pittsburgh and should be able to adjust to the speed of the NFL.
The offensive line had an excuse for its bad performance in 2008; the receiving corps did not. Things might get even worse this season. The Jaguars cut troubled receivers Matt Jones and Reggie Williams, and traded Dennis Northcutt to the Lions. They picked up former Rams WR Torry Holt in free agency, but I think Holt is on the decline. The Jaguars drafted a pair of wide receivers. Mike Thomas could grab a job as a slot receiver, while Jarett Dillard could eventually work his way up to the No. 2 slot. Wide receivers Troy Williamson seems to be in Jack Del Rio’s doghouse, but given the weak competition they face, if he performs well in practice he should get some playing time. WR Mike Walker is tremendously talented and should have a breakout season if he can manage to stay healthy. Tight end Mercedes Lewis needs to drop fewer balls or else TE Greg Estandia is going to steal some of his playing time.
I’ll be blunt: the defensive line looks terrible. Defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves were awful as rookies, although Harvey flashed some talent in a two-sack effort against Baltimore. Groves might have to move to linebacker. Defensive tackle John Henderson isn’t as effective as he used to be and struggled with an MCL injury last year. DT Rob Meier was dominant in 2007 but regressed in 2008. The Jaguars drafted DT Terrance Knighton in the third round. I’m not sure how productive he’ll be as a rookie but he does give the Jaguars some defensive line depth.
The Jaguars no longer have linebacker Mike Peterson, but Daryl Smith, Justin Durant, and Clint Ingram should do a good job in his absence. Durant is a superior athlete. Smith is going to take over most of Peterson’s responsibilities and he appears well equipped to do so.
The Jaguars have taken steps to improve upon the disasters that were their offensive line, wide receiving corps, and defensive line. That just leaves the disaster that was the secondary. The Jaguars took cornerback Derek Cox in the third round. Let’s just put it this way: He didn’t even get a listing as a prospect in Pro Football Weekly’s Draft Preview. Either their scouting department found a gem (and took him in the third round), or they were merely seduced by a tremendous Pro Day performance. Cornerback Rashean Mathis was effective when healthy. He’ll start alongside Brian Williams. Williams has played both safety and cornerback for the Jaguars. Free safety Reggie Nelson takes a lot of risks, but too many backfired in 2008. The coaching staff would be happy to see him rein in his aggressive instincts in 2009. The Jaguars signed former Eagle strong safety Sean Considine. Mathis and Nelson have talent but if they don’t improve this season, the secondary will again be a weakness for the Jaguars.
The Jaguars are excellent in kickoff coverage. Apart from that, the special teams aren’t particularly effective.
I could see 10 wins from the Jaguars if the offensive line gels. I could see six wins if the defensive line and secondary perform poorly again. I expect the offense to perform well and the defense to perform poorly. Balance things out and you get an 8-8 season.
Tennessee Titans
Expected Wins- 8.68
Scouting Wins- 8.66
DVOA Wins- 9.3
2008 Record- 13-3
Twice in my life Tennessee has had the best team in the NFL. Both times they outplayed the Baltimore Ravens in a playoff matchup. Both times they lost. I actually feel bad for the Titans, as they are now far away from the Super Bowl.
Quarterback Kerry Collins did a yeoman’s job stepping in for Vince Young. After being the 2006 offensive Rookie of the Year, Young has failed to develop. He’s still young enough to learn how to read defenses and become a quality starter. I’ll be delicate and say I have concerns about his willingness to put in the work he needs to if he wants to reclaim the starting job. Patrick Ramsey might move up on the depth chart ahead of Young. Collins can continue to be effective so long as the running game is the main focus of the offense.
Running back Chris Johnson was phenomenal as a rookie and his playoff injury vs. the Ravens was the turning point of the game. Johnson is a speedster who pairs well with LenDale White. White is a physical runner who excels in short yardage situations but is not limited to them. Please note: White had zero fumbles in 2008, a massive improvement over the five he had in ‘07. White is in a contract year so expect another good performance.
The Titans decided their receiving corps needed a bit of an upgrade. They signed former Steelers wide receiver Nate Washington and drafted WR Kenny Britt. WR Justin Gage will start across from Washington. Britt is a solid possession receiver while both Gage and Washington can attack you deep. The Titans franchised tight end Bo Scaife. He isn’t an elite performer but he does fill a need as a short-yardage receiver. Rookie TE Jared Cook is a former wide receiver who could prove to be an excellent offensive weapon if he can add a modicum of blocking skills to his game.
Left tackle Michael Roos had an absolutely outstanding season. If he can maintain his level of play he’ll become a household name. Apart from center Kevin Mawae, the rest of the offensive line lacks pedigree but still turned in a great performance in 2008. The line was exceedingly aggressive and physical. I don’t expect the line to perform as well as they did last season, but even if they regress a bit they are still a major plus for the Titans.
It is hard to judge the quality of the Titans’ defensive line, as offenses had to spend two or three players to block Albert Haynesworth every play. Haynesworth has found his fortune in Washington. The Titans still have a deep defensive line. Jason Jones will likely slide down from end to tackle to replace Haynesworth. He had a great game against Pittsburgh but he, along with DT Tony Brown, will face a lot more offensive-line scrutiny without Haynesworth to distract offenses. Rookie DT Sen’Derrick Marks will provide depth and allow Brown and Jones to stay fresh. Defensive ends Jevon Kearse and Kyle Vanden Bosch are both shadows of the players they used to be. Vanden Bosch might bounce back if he returns to full health. Backup Jacob Ford had seven sacks last season and will see plenty of playing time. If either Kearse or Vanden Bosch continues to decline, defensive ends William Hayes or Dave Ball can step up.
Outside linebacker Keith Bullock leads an effective but not exceptional linebacker corps. OLB David Thornton is versatile, as he is strong against both the run and in pass coverage. I’m not sure rookie ILB Gerald McRath is ready to step in and help but if the Titans suffer an injury to one of their linebackers we’ll find out.
Cornerback Nick Harper put up excellent numbers, although he did so with significant safety help. CB Cortland Finnegan did not have equally impressive numbers, but he had the much harder coverage jobs. Free safety Michael Griffin has excellent speed and ball-hawking skills. Strong safety Chris Hope is a physical presence and was effective in pass coverage and as a run stuffer. The only concern about the Titans secondary is depth. Losing Harper would be a minor concern, but the rest are all tough to replace. The Titans grabbed CB Ryan Mouton in the third round. He is small but might be able to step in and cover slot receivers.
Kicker Rob Bironas has blossomed into a star, or at least as much of a star as a kicker can be without making multiple Super Bowl-winning kicks. I probably would have tried to find a replacement for punter Craig Hentrich. The Titans could also improve a bit on their punt return game, although they have brought in no personnel for those units.
The Titans were a great team last year due to an outstanding defense and a strong running game backed up by a consistent quarterback who didn’t make mistakes. I really like head coach Jeff Fisher but I don’t think he’ll be able to get this team to double-digit wins this season. The Titans still have enough talent on both sides of the ball for a winning season so I’ll go with 9-7.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
Popularity: unranked [?]
The Ultimate 2009 NFL Preview: AFC North
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Previous Divisional Previews
NFC West
NFC South
NFC North
NFC East
Baltimore Ravens
Expected Wins- 8.75
Scouting Wins- 8.83
DVOA Wins- 8.8
2008 Record- 11-5
The Ravens came close to reaching the Super Bowl last year. They got that far with a mixture of tricks on offense and a great defense. Last season the Ravens broke out an unbalanced line (a specialty of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron), as well as the wildcat. In addition to that, the Ravens used more max-protection schemes and play-action passes than any other team in the NFL. This served to protect rookie quarterback Joe Flacco but the onus will be on Flacco to develop. The offensive line looks strong, as the Ravens signed Matt Birk at center and drafted Michael Oher to play right tackle. Left tackle Jared Gaither is a physical specimen (6-9, 330 pounds), and if he can cut down on his penalties the Ravens will have a great pair of young tackles.
The Ravens look to have a three-headed running game with Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, and Le’Ron McClain splitting carries. None are game breakers but McClain is good in power situations and Rice is a nice scatback. I am a big fan of running back Cedrick Peerman, a sixth-round steal for the Ravens.
Wide receiver Derrick Mason has been Flacco’s favorite target, but had a dislocated shoulder last season and is not back to 100%. He is also 33 years old, which is well after when wide receivers are expected to decline. WR Mark Clayton has his own injury concerns but put up some big numbers when healthy. Tight ends L.J. Smith and Todd Heap are both past their prime, although Heap was still productive last year.
I love defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. He’s a great player and is only 25 years old. He’ll be joined by Kelly Gregg and Justin Bannan. Defensive end Trevor Pryce is getting up in years but the Ravens drafted Paul Kruger to help spell him. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is also getting up in years but has maintained a high level of play. He’ll miss having Bart Scott around as Scott was an impact player. The Ravens franchised Terrell Suggs, who should continue to provide a strong pass rush from the outside. Even without Scott the Ravens have a strong front seven, but it would be unreasonable to expect them to perform as well as they did last season.
The Ravens have a strong core in the secondary. Cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Domonique Foxworth were both impressive last season. Free safety Ed Reed is a legend, although he is going to have to play through some nagging nerve injuries. Strong safety Dawan Landry has recovered from a spinal cord concussion and looks to be ready for the season. The Ravens have solid depth in their secondary and should be able to withstand an injury or drop in performance.
Punter Sam Koch was highly effective and the coverage teams look to improve with the addition of gunner Kelley Washington. Overall the Ravens had slightly above average special teams last season.
I don’t expect the Ravens to miss defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, but they might miss some of the players he took with him to NY. Much of the Ravens’ 2009 success will come down to the effectiveness of Flacco and the passing game. Since I am not sold on either I’ll settle on a 9-7 record.
Cincinnati Bengals
Expected Wins- 7.02
Scouting Wins- 6.81
DVOA Wins- 6.9
2008 Record- 4-11-1
This is a dysfunctional franchise. When your fans are willing to pay to have an airplane fly over your training facility pulling a sign that requests you hire a GM, you know something has gone wrong. In the case of the Bengals, a lot of things have gone wrong. Quarterback Carson Palmer has been a star but has also suffered serious knee and elbow injuries. The offensive line has suffered numerous maladies. Actually, let me focus on the offensive line.
The 2008 Bengals offensive line was the worst offensive line in the NFL. It has been replaced. The Bengals drafted Andre Smith with the sixth pick of the ’09 draft. While I applaud the move in principle, I think the Bengals drafted the wrong player. Drafting offensive linemen is a good move in general, but Smith signed with an agent before the Sugar Bowl, thereby rendering himself ineligible. That was an exceedingly selfish move. He finally signed with the Bengals on August 30, thereby missing much of training camp. He was a dominant run blocker in college, but his character issues and me-first attitude would have led me toward Eugene Monroe. Monroe was similarly dominant in college, although more of a pass-blocker than Smith. In any event, Smith has been signed and will likely be the starting right tackle. Anthony Collins looks to be the new left tackle. Rookie center Jonathan Luigs will be an upgrade but I think he might be better in a zone-blocking system. The Bengals were wise to invest in their offensive line, but even so the line will probably not be one of the stronger such units in the NFL this season. (Update: Smith signed late, then immediately proceeded to injure his foot. That shouldn’t matter much in the long run, but his development has clearly been set back).
In addition to offensive line concerns and injury woes at quarterback, the Bengals have to deal with a wide receiving corps on the decline. T.J. Houshmandzadeh has left and Chad Ochocinco is in decline. The Bengals aren’t lacking in decent receivers as Laveranues Coles (also past his prime), Chad Henry (a deep threat with plenty of off-field character issues), and Andre Caldwell (a promising second-year player) round out a mediocre receiving corps. The Bengals’ tight end production was awful and they addressed this issue in the draft. Rookie tight end Chase Coffman is not an elite prospect but he should be an improvement over the current options.
The Bengals signed running back Cedrick Benson to a two-year deal but he is considered a placeholder until the Bengals find a better choice in the 2010 draft. Actually, the Bengals might have found a replacement in the 2009 draft with Bernard Scott, but the only notes I have on him are “character issues, five arrests in college, led Division II in scoring.” Welcome to Cincinnati Mr. Scott, you’ll fit right in.
The Bengals defense’ was terrific against the run for the second half of the 2008 season. Defensive tackle Domata Peko was a revelation and this season he will be joined by Tank Johnson and Jason Shirley. DT Pat Sims was also quite good, although not as good as Peko. The biggest problem for the Bengals’ defense was a lack of a pass rush. The Bengals were ravaged by injuries, but even so their pass rush was terrible. For the Bengals to improve, defensive ends Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom have to be more consistent in pressuring the quarterback. The Bengals drafted pass-rush specialist defensive end Michael Johnson in the third round.
The Bengals do possess a pretty good linebacker corps, but like the defensive line it is much better against the run than the pass. Inside linebacker Dhani Jones and outside linebacker Keith Rivers are both impact players, and the Bengals added inside linebacker Rey Maualuga in the draft. Maualuga dropped to the second round due to character issues, but in Cincinnati that doesn’t seem to be a problem. He has first-round talent and is an extremely physical player.
Like the rest of the Bengals’ defense the secondary was ravaged by injuries. It is very difficult to judge a secondary that had to work without the benefit of a pass rush, but cornerbacks Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph have not developed as quickly as the Bengals had hoped. Free safeties Chris Crocker and Marvin White were effective for the Bengals. Strong safety Chinedum Ndukwe is effective in run support, but less effective in coverage. The Bengals signed strong safety Roy Williams, another strong hitter who is weak in pass coverage.
Punter Kyle Larson was awful for the Bengals in 2008 and has been replaced by rookie Kevin Huber. Overall, the Bengals’ special teams were lousy, but given the expected improvement in punting performance and the various other holes on the roster, I’d say the special teams should not be one of the Bengals’ main concerns.
I have to agree with the fans: the Bengals need a dedicated general manager. Also, if someone could explain to me why the Bengals were so bad after halftime (outscored by eight points in the first half, 152 in the second), I’d appreciate it. If things go well for the Bengals I could see seven wins, but six is more likely. The Bengals have the potential to implode due to a variety of character issues, or simply from another injury to Palmer. They go 6-10.
Cleveland Browns
Expected Wins- 6.08
Scouting Wins- 6.51
DVOA Wins- 6.6
2008 Record- 4-12
At the end of last season, Browns ownership realized they had a problem. They fired coach Romeo Crennel and general manager Phil Savage. Crennel has been replaced by the “Mangenius,” while George Kokinis has replaced Savage. Both moves will undoubtedly be improvements, although it will take time for the moves to pay off. Kokinis and the Mangenius have worked to rebuild the roster and purge it of malcontents. Tight end Kellen Winslow was shipped off and wide receiver Braylon Edwards was dangled in trade talks. The Browns traded down in the draft to accumulate extra draft picks, and managed to snag safety Abram Elam from the Jets in a trade.
The Browns hope they have their quarterback of the future on the roster but quarterback Brady Quinn has yet to show he can handle the NFL. Quarterback Brett Ratliff is a favorite of the Mangenius and he’ll be the beneficiary if Quinn stumbles. Plan C has worked before but Derek Anderson also has proven he is not a reliable option.
Running back Jamal Lewis is no longer the bruising power back he once was and is now merely another old physical running back. RB Jerome Harrison should get more of the workload this season. The Browns drafted running back James Davis in the sixth round but I don’t expect him to see too much action this season unless he blows away the team in practice.
The Browns realized their wide receiver corps was in shambles and took care of this in the draft. Wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi is notable for having a great work ethic and lousy hands. You can train a wide receiver to catch with the JUGS machine. WR Brian Robiskie is expected to step into the starting lineup across from Braylon Edwards. Both Robiskie and Massaquoi are large physical receivers who will help with blocking for the running game. Edwards still has the talent to be a No. 1 receiver but he should also spend some more time with the JUGS machine, as his drops increased last season.
In addition to fortifying the receiving corps, the Browns improved their offensive line via the draft. Center Alex Mack should provide an upgrade over Hank Fraley. Left tackle Joe Thomas regressed badly in his sophomore season but that should prove to merely be a blip over a long and productive career. Right tackle John St. Clair struggled a bit as a left tackle but should be fine on the right side. The Browns have solid depth along the rest of their offensive line and should be able to provide good protection for whoever wins the starting quarterback job.
Defensive tackle Shaun Rogers is still an excellent player, but not quite the dominant stud he used to be. Unfortunately for the Browns he’s the only semi-dominant player they have along their defensive line. Defensive end Corey Williams has shown some talent while with Green Bay, but has not produced much for the Browns. Inside linebacker D’Quell Johnson leads an improved linebacker corps. Jackson was exceptional for the Browns in 2008 (154 tackles, two sacks, three INTs), and will be working with former Jet Eric Barton as well as rookies David Veikune (a converted defensive end), and Kaluka Malava. If the defensive line can keep blockers off the Browns linebackers, they should have a very productive season.
Three of the four starting defensive back positions are well manned. The Browns acquired strong safety Abram Elam from the Jets. Free Safety Brodney Pool returns, as does cornerback Eric Wright. Both have performed well for the Browns, and both are young (Wright is 24, Pool is 25). Cornerback Brandon McDonald was demolished early in the season but redeemed himself a bit versus the Eagles. The Browns have plenty of cornerback depth, but the level of talent is questionable.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention special teams ace Josh Cribbs. He is an excellent gunner as well as a solid kick returner. Both punter Dave Zastudil and kicker Phil Dawson are good players. The Browns have a variety of weaknesses but their special teams are not among them.
The Browns should be decent on defense but lousy on offense. They should get six wins because of a soft schedule but it is clear the Browns are not built to win now and are trying to build for the future. They go no better than 6-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Expected Wins- 10.45
Scouting Wins- 11.65
DVOA Wins- 9.6
2008 Record- 12-4
There is a lot of short-term variance in football. In any individual game a team can be outplayed but still manage to win. Over the course of a season, a team could be extremely lucky and win 10 games with a below-average roster. Over the course of decades, luck will not sustain you and you need good management to stay strong. No franchise has been run as well as the Steelers over the last 40 years. The Steelers excel in both player development and talent acquisition. The Steelers don’t go through regime change issues like other franchises. Admittedly, finding a great quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger in the draft is a nice catch, but year after year the Steelers’ defense is well constructed. The Steelers of this era aren’t quite as dominant as the Steelers of the ‘70s, but only the New England Patriots have been as successful in the “aughts.”
Roethlisberger doesn’t produce the best stat line. He holds the ball while trying to make plays and gives up numerous sacks other QBs would avoid. Of course, his offensive line also lets in numerous defenders that other offensive lines block. Roethlisberger is exceedingly tough, but over the last three seasons he has thrown 49 interceptions and fumbled 28 times. The Steelers’ offense has struggled against the blitz, which actually makes a lot of sense given the weaknesses of the offensive line and Roethlisberger’s style. Left tackle Max Starks was franchised, a move the Steelers made due to need and not due to Starks being a truly dominant player. The Steelers drafted Kraig Urbik in the third round and he should be able to step in at right guard, or even right tackle in an emergency.
Injuries have robbed running back Willie Parker of some of his athleticism and he will probably have to share more carries this season. The Steelers expected RB Rashard Mendenhall to become their next feature back but he suffered a shoulder injury that ended his season. RB Mewelde Moore filled in and was quite effective for the Steelers last season. If all three can stay healthy, the Steelers have a nice selection of running backs. Mendenhall is the most likely of the three to have a breakout season.
Wide receiver Santonio Holmes isn’t quite as good as he looked in the Steelers’ playoff run, but he has taken over the role of the Steelers No. 1 wide receiver. If he can improve his catch rate he’ll become one of the AFC’s star receivers. WR Hines Ward is an excellent possession receiver and should be able to handle his change in roles quite well. WR Limas Sweed has the talent to eventually become a No. 1 receiver, but right now he is struggling to land the No. 3 job. Rookie WR Mike Wallace is a speedster who will help stretch the field and return kicks.
The Steelers’ defensive line is still strong but it is aging, as all of their starters are over 30. The Steelers drafted Ziggy Hood to fill in at defensive end. Nose tackles Casey Hampton and Chris Hoke have shared snaps for over eight seasons. Clearly, the Steelers like what they have at defensive tackle.
The great strength of the Steelers defense is its linebacker corps. The returning starters managed 36 sacks last season. Don’t worry about the loss of Larry Foote, as Lawrence Timmons looks to be a strong replacement. The Steelers rarely pay top money for linebackers, as they usually prefer to develop them, but James Harrison is a worthy exception. He was one of the most dominant linemen in the NFL last season and should remain strong for several years.
Just as a weak pass rush makes a good secondary look bad, a great pass rush protects a weak secondary. Strong safety Troy Polamalu is the best safety in the NFL, but the rest of the secondary is pedestrian. Free safety Ryan Clark and cornerbacks Ike Taylor and William Gay usually play cover-3, and as such are responsible for stopping big plays instead of trying to make them. Still, with the kind of pass rush the Steelers possess that makes a certain amount of sense. No reason to take a huge risk to produce a big play when your front seven will likely provide a big play to stop an opposing drive.
The Steelers’ special teams units are in flux and are tough to judge, but kicker Jeff Reed does a great job given the conditions he has to play through in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have excellent coverage units, but the return units could use some work.
The Steelers remain the class of the division, a step ahead of Baltimore. I wouldn’t be shocked by a repeat of last season, but concerns about the offense lead me to believe 11-5 is the likely outcome.
Seth Burn has degrees in economics, accounting, and philosophy. His background is in statistical analysis and game theory. He can often be found covering his eyes at Jets games. If you have any questions or comments they can be directed to his cat Molly via sethburnatgmaildotcom.
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