Throughout the world, the biggest sports story is the tournament draw for the 2010 World Cup final.

To give you an idea of how big this event is, Nelson Mandela opened proceedings. Charlize Theron and David Beckham were both in attendance.

How important is the draw? Considering that a team’s best-case scenario at the Cup is a seven game run and the draw pairs you with your first three opponents, much of your country’s fate rests on the relative strength of the group. Land a group with countries you can’t find on a map and it’s smooth sailing into the round of 16. Dropped into a group of death with Brazil, Uruguay and France? Maybe plan to do some sightseeing.

REMEDIAL SOCCER PARAGRAPH

In case you aren’t familiar with the tournament, here’s the quick overview.

Every team in the world tries to qualify for the 30 available slots (two slots are reserved for the previous champion and the host country). The final 32 teams are drawn into eight groups of four teams. They play round robin, getting three points for a win, one point for a draw. The top two teams from each group move to a single elimination bracket, which goes through four rounds before crowning a champion. Young talent blooms, national heroes are born, international crises arise and the entire world shuts down for two hours during the finals. The entire process takes about a month and starts in June.

END REMEDIAL SOCCER PARAGRAPH

If you want to nerd out on the process of selection, read up on it here. The format is interestingly weighted to ensure a relative balance of power in the group stage, giving the powerhouse teams some guarantees of weaker opponents. This also keeps the regional rivals from eliminating each other before the more dramatic stage of the tournament.

Now that the die is cast, we can look at what the field looks like and who is likely to dominate and who is likely to head home early.

Group A
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France

Hosts South Africa have their work cut out for them in a group that doesn’t look that impressive to non-soccer fans. The only juggernaut in the group is 1998 champ France, who came second in 2006 (with the infamous late-game headbutt by Zinedine Zidane). The French team is young and coming off of the retirement of a generation of world-class talent. It will be interesting to see how they react to the pressure.

Uruguay fields multiple players who start in Europe and well as an underreported soccer pedigree, having won the Cup twice. Mexico’s team is solid, but less international, with a couple of young players (Carlos Vela and Giovani dos Santos) who will be looking to make the World Cup their debutante ball. South Africa will want it the most ­and have the home-field advantage.

Historically, host countries have always exceeded expectations, so they can’t be ruled out categorically; but jeez, this is an uphill battle. I find it difficult to see them pulling out a win against anyone except possibly Mexico.

Today’s Prediction: 1 France, 2 Uruguay, 3 Mexico, 4 South Africa  – with Mexico real a threat to spoil Uruguay’s fun.

Group B
Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece

This is a pretty rough group for everyone except Argentina. It’s very likely that the perennial powerhouses will tower over the competition, which isn’t to knock the quality of any of these three sides- but to emphasize Argentina’s dominance on the pitch. Of course, the Argentinean matches are must-watch if for no other reason than the presence of Lionel Messi, the 22-year-old phenom who is currently World Soccer Player of the Year. Already arguably the best player in the world (or possibly not arguably after Barcelona’s dismantling of Manchester United, where he faced off against Cristiano Ronaldo, the other top contender for the crown and was clearly the better player that day); Messi has been drawing very fair comparisons to Pele and Maradona for years. This will be his second World Cup, but his first since rising to dominance in the sport. It very well could be his tournament. If not, we will likely be having the same conversation four years hence.

Nigeria has an impressive array of world-class players, including a very solid defense. Throw in the (continental) home-field advantage and you’ll be looking at a team with a serious edge going into this tournament. The African teams have been getting better year after year since the 80s, and Nigeria has been one of the stronger teams among them for some time.

South Korea has the highest finish of any Asian team in Cup history, having come in fourth in 2002. They’ll likely be fielding an older squad than most teams as the national heroes from 2002 approach the ends of their careers, but they have an exciting young striker in Park Chu-Young.

Greece is making their second appearance in the World Cup, following a disappointing showing in 1994 in the US. Their team is not a powerhouse and will have to work hard to keep up with the other three.

This group is particularly interesting because South Korea and Nigeria will play each other in the final game of the round, setting up what is likely to some ‘winner advances, loser goes home’ drama.

Today’s Prediction: 1 Argentina, 2 Nigera, 3 South Korea, 4 Greece ­ Nigeria’s representing the host continent- I think their heart will push them past South Korea.

Group C
England
United States
Algeria
Slovenia

The most interesting group for US soccer fans, and boy did we dodge some bullets. The group is the kind you always want to be drawn into: one with two or more teams that are clearly weaker than you.

England is always a team to be respected. They are the also-rans of the big dogs, having not won a Cup since 1966 and notorious for finishing well below expectations. Their team, as usual, looks incredibly strong on paper, with incredible depth and reach of talent. Their back four is among the best in the business, with team captain John Terry anchoring. Their midfield is always impressive, led by the heroic Liverpool captain Stephen Gerrard. In the past, attacking has been their weakest point (so much so that a running joke is that England just ‘forgot to score’), but hotheaded striker Wayne Rooney has really come into his own since the last Cup and will be among the premiere strikers in the tournament. In a group like this, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they crash out early, even if they don’t bring their A game.

The US team keeps getting stronger, as our key players go to Europe and get experience in their much more competitive leagues. Following an unlucky quarterfinals finish in 2002 with a disappointing 2006, we’ll be looking to 2010 for vindication. Our backfield features Oguchi Onyewu, who just signed with European powerhouse AC Milan and the strongest set of attacking midfielders we’ve had in recent memory, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan.

And, of course, the US is never lacking in top quality goalies, with several good options going in. We suffer from some inconsistencies in the lineup (and on the field, unfortunately). These lead us to constantly being labeled as underdogs, which has been extremely good for our team mindset.

This is a good year for us, with neither Algeria nor Slovenia fielding strong sides. If England and the US can put together a run of solid, ABC soccer, they should cruise to the next round. Of course, the match between the US and England will be of special interest, leading off the group and setting the stage for another historic upset. The last time we met in the World Cup, the US pulled out a 1-0 victory against an English team so strong that they had beaten a pan-European team 6-1. Of course, that was 1950; but still. Memories are long in soccer.

Today’s Prediction: 1 England, 2 US, 3 Slovenia, 4 Algeria

Group D
Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana

This is a fairly typical group for this World Cup. It features one huge team (Germany), two teams that could easily make it through, (Serbia and Ghana) and one plucky underdog. Australia will have to defy all odds to survive the group stage here. Meanwhile, Germany looks headed for a cruise to the next round. That leaves Ghana and Serbia looking for the slot. Of the two, I like Ghana:  they’ve got the home continent edge, plus they have a good crop of players anchoring the midfield in Muntari, Essien and Muntari. I’ve enjoyed watching their energetic, pacey play, even as they were beating us in 2006. They’re an easy team to root for.

Today’s Prediction: 1 Germany, 2 Ghana, 3 Serbia, 4 Australia

Group E
Netherlands
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon

This is a pretty soft group overall. The Dutch, like England, are always one of the strongest teams on paper, but it never seems to pan out for them. Though their team doesn’t boast the same level of name recognition as we find on the English team, the Dutch are comprehensively strong, with good depth and plenty of veterans. They are a solid lock to make it out of the group stage.

The other three teams are about the same quality, which should lead to an interesting and dramatic group, as it’s tough to say which of the three will join the Dutch in the second round.

Cameroon boasts a couple of world-class players, most notably speedy frontman Samuel Eto’o. They also have a couple of serous veterans anchoring, but their team overall feels either a little too inexperienced or out of their prime for me. Still, the African style of play is a joy to watch ­and there’s no dismissing them easily.

Japan is one of my favorite teams to watch. They’re a hardworking bunch, but like the US, many of their players play domestically in a league that doesn’t have the competitive level of Europe or even South America. This puts them at a serious disadvantage in experience and even just variation of play. Still, you can tell how much they have to prove ­and they bring their A game even while getting pounded. You’ve got to respect that.

Fifteen years ago, Denmark was a powerhouse team and this group would have looked much more fearsome than it does today. Though they are on an uptick, they don’t look like a dominating team right now. I’m not super-familiar with their lineup outside of the two EPL players (Agger and Bendtner), who are both prone to moments of brilliance.

This group looks pretty cut and dry, though both of the underdog teams are hard workers who could throw wrenches into things.

Today’s Prediction: 1 Holland, 2 Cameroon, 3 Denmark, 4 Japan

Group F
Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia

2006 World Cup champions Italy pulled the weakest group in the tournament.

The Italians look ridiculously strong again, with elder statesmen in goal, on the back line, and in the midfield. A large chunk of the ‘06 team will be returning and looking to keep the Cup in Italy another four years. If the team has a weakness, it’s that their strikers are relatively inexperienced.

“Relatively” is the key word there, though. They still have several world class strikers to draw upon.

Paraguay will be pinning its hopes to the shirt of veteran striker Roque Santa Cruz. If he can put together a strong Cup performance, he might be able to power them past Slovakia and New Zealand.

Slovakia finished at the top of a rather lackluster group in the qualifier stage, beating out Czech Republic and Poland. They have a fairly experienced backfield, but their midfield looks to rely on one of their youngsters to provide a breakout performance to bolster their chances.

New Zealand is comprised mostly of players who compete in their local league, with a notable exception in Blackburn Rovers Captain Ryan Nelsen. It will be very interesting to see how he matches up against Man City’s Santa Cruz. A veteran striker and a veteran defender who play at the same level should be the key to the game for New Zealand and Paraguay.

I think it’s going to be a tough group for New Zealand to survive. Having your strongest player in the backfield means the defense may be solid, but can they finish on goal? Without that, it seems likely that they will draw or lose most of their games.

Of the three teams, Paraguay has the best schedule, facing their hardest match first and their easiest last. If they can miraculously pull a win or draw against Italy (who may view it as a warm up game, in light of the relatively weak competition), they should easily make it through. If Santa Cruz is healthy, I can see him firing one past Slovakia’s defense and quite possibly putting them through to the next round.

Today’s prediction: 1 Italy, 2 Paraguay, 3 Slovakia, 4 New Zealand

Group G
Brazil
North Korea
Ivory Coast
Portugal

Brazil, though an absolutely ridiculous team, won’t have the easiest trip through the first round this year. The Samba Kings are so deep that they will have world class players on the bench. They’re always the team to watch, as their games often turn into magical performances. So if you need a second team to root for, Brazil is always among the best options. While their passage to the second stage is very, very, very likely, the other three teams in this group are pretty interesting.

First up is Portugal, ­featuring Messi’s rival Cristiano Ronaldo, who is an absolutely dominant, brilliant attacker. Behind him will be one of the best midfields assembled, with a group of quick, creative players that can quickly make something out of nothing. Portugal is at the end of a cycle of brilliant youngsters who never quite captured their glory, but their final game of the group against Brazil will be one of the highlights of the tournament, no matter what the standings are like (though I believe they will be fighting to qualify for the second round).

The Ivory Coast is a team that seems easy to write off at first, but a quick look at their lineup shows a pretty respectable list of players from the top leagues in Europe. English fans in particular will be familiar with Ivory Coast, which is buoyed by monstrous striker Dider Drogba and his Chelsea teammate Salomon Kalou. Their midfield and backfield is solid, with brothers Kolo and Yaya Toure, speedster Emmanuel Eboue and my personal favorite Didier Zokora. They play Portugal first and could provide stiffer competition than the Portuguese will be expecting, with all eyes on the ten ton Brazilian gorilla in the room.

No team is as curious a spectacle as the North Koreans (Korea DPR). After barely missing qualification in 2006 to Iran, the North Koreans were impressive in qualifying rounds this time around. I don’t know much about the individual players, as only one of them plays outside of Asia and most of the team plays the local leagues in North Korea. As such, it’s difficult to see them holding up in one of the toughest groups in the tournament.

Still, it’s the sort of team that is full of surprises, since no one knows anything about them.

I think this group likely has an upset in it. Portugal is definitely the more respected, better known of the two, but I have to give the edge to Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast is one of the most underrated teams in the game and they end the round on their easiest matchup, while Portugal has to face Brazil. If Ivory Coast posts respectable results against Portugal and Brazil (who tends to view every game in the group stage as a warm up match), they’ll have a cakewalk in the last game while Portugal will be in for the game of their lives.

Today’s Prediction: 1 Brazil 2 Ivory Coast 3 Portugal 4 North Korea

Group H
Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile

This analysis ends on a down note, as group H is a fairly weak set of teams.

Spain has been hotter than hot the past few years, having won the 2008 European Championship, which is essentially a World Cup without Brazil and Argentina. The Spaniards field a team of impressive caliber, with two of the best defenders in the game in Puyol and Ramos. Their midfield is packed with flexible world class players who can feel dangerous balls up to David Villa and Fernando Torres all day long. This could be Spain’s tournament and any number of players could end up a national hero.

The Chilean team may lack the star power of their Spanish rivals, but their performance in the qualification period was mighty impressive. They finished in second place, one point behind Brazil. Chile’s an attacking team and they came out firing, with encouraging performances against the best teams in South America. Could they squeak out of the group here?

Switzerland was eliminated by Ukraine on penalty kicks in 2006, becoming the first team ever to miss ALL of their penalties in the World Cup final. They’ll be looking to vindicate themselves after that poor performance by advancing through this fairly soft group. Of the four teams, I’d place them as a solid second, saying that it’s theirs to lose.

Our Conference-mates Honduras round out the group. Finishing last in one of the weaker conferences does not bode well for our Central American friends and, in this group, they are likely the weakest team. They’ll be hoping for a big performance from Inter Milan’s David Suazo. Without it, they’re likely to be running behind for the length of the tournament.

Today’s Prediction: 1 Spain, 2 Switzerland, 3 Chile, 4 Honduras

Well, those are my predictions at this very early stage. Lots of things can change based on the team call-ups, injuries and formations the coaches decide to run. As we get closer to the Cup, look for more analysis from Upper Deck on this huge sporting event.

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