Archive for April, 2009
Patience With Young Pitching, Part 2
Posted by: | CommentsFollowing up on yesterday’s post, let’s take a look at some current pitchers who had similar hype to Hughes, their history, and current outlook.
Zack Greinke: Kansas City Royals
Current Age: 25
Drafted: First round, 6th overall in 2002 from Apopka HS (Apopka,FL)
Highlight: The 2009 season.
Adversity: 5-17 record with a 5.80 ERA in 2005. Struggled with social anxiety disorder in 2006.
Without a doubt, as April winds down, no one has turned more heads in baseball so far this season than Zack Greinke. He managed to start the season by not giving up a run in his first four starts, including two complete game shutouts. He’s struck out many, walking few along the way. And though it’s far too early to make such predictions, there isn’t a soul alive who can tell you he’s not the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young this year with a straight face. He’s practically brought hope to the Kansas City fan base on his own, a feat that speaks volumes given their recent history.
Of course, it wasn’t always easy for Greinke. The Royals brought him up to the majors in 2004 at age 20, and though he held his own and produced, 2005 was a train wreck, leading to a lost 2006 campaign with the aforementioned anxiety issues (some speculated he might leave the game altogether at the time). He came back and had solid campaigns in 2007 and 2008, leading to this year’s big breakout. Kansas City now has an ace they can build around, and while there’s certainly some room for regression here, it’s very doubtful that he will return to the lackluster performances of his earlier years.
Felix Hernandez: Seattle Mariners
Current Age: 23
Drafted: Undrafted free agent out of Venezuela, signed July 4th, 2002.
Highlight: “King Felix” throws a one-hitter, out-dueling Daisuke Matsuzaka, spoiling the Japanese import’s Fenway debut on the national stage.
Adversity: Injuries, conditioning concerns and inconsistency.
“King Felix” couldn’t have come up with more hype. The U.S.S. Mariner blog created the nickname, and it stuck (along with it, some fairly heavy expectations). Certainly, this hype didn’t appear out of thin air. Hernandez dominated A ball, and skipped Double-A to go right to Triple-A, not missing a beat. His 2.25ERA and 110 strikeouts in 84.1 innings were enough to convince Mariners brass that the kid didn’t have anything left to prove in the minors, and it’s hard to argue with them. Matching the hype however, is another story.
By any rational measure, Felix has done “well” thus far. He produced at just below league average at age 20, and has pitched between 190-200 innings from 2006-2008, with a sub-4.00 ERA in 2007-2008. And while he’s shown flashes of greatness (see the Fenway game above), those who expected him to come up and become a phenom overnight have been greatly disappointed. Doc Gooden comparisons were made while he was in the minors, so fans more or less hoped he’d come up and immediately start winning Cy Youngs out the gate. It’s easy to understand why Mariners fans may be impatient at this point, but it helps to remember that he’s still only 23 years old. And there is plenty of hope in the present tense: he’s started off well this year, going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 36 K’s in 34 innings.
Clay Buchholz: Boston Red Sox
Current Age: 23
Drafted: First round, 42nd overall in 2005 from Angelina College (Lufkin, Texas)
Highlight: Throwing a no-hitter at Fenway Park in his second major league start on September 1, 2007.
Adversity: A horrible 2008 campaign, followed by a demotion to Pawtucket, where he’s remained.
If you really want to pump up the hype machine, throw a no-hitter in your second major league start. Red Sox fans must have been doing backflips after seeing what this hyped prospect accomplished. And to be fair, New England knows its baseball: it’s not like this came out of nowhere. In the minor leagues, Buchholz has been nothing less than a strikeout machine, fanning 429 batters in 359 innings to date (not to mention a 2.43 ERA). So we’ll forgive Boston fans for getting excited.
That being said, he threw his no-hitter at age 22, and one game does not make a career. Although he did throw a complete game shutout against the Rays the following season, 2008 as a whole was more or less a disaster. Buchholz went on the DL with a finger injury, and when he returned, his ERA ballooned to 6.75. This led to a demotion to the minors, where he currently resides.
What caused such a steep decline? To hear it from the man himself, the pressure of the big leagues may have been too much: “I’ve never been one to say the pressure was too much for me, but I’ve felt like I’ve had a lot of weight on my shoulders just trying to be perfect and trying to do everything as well as I could to help this team win.” Not to say that a no-hitter is ever a bad thing (believe me, as a Mets fan we’re still waiting for our first), but it can create a “nowhere to go but down” mentality in a fragile, young psyche.
Although the same lessons learned from the pitchers mentioned above (and Hughes) can be applied here, there’s one major difference with Buchholz: with the rate that the Red Sox have produced talent from their farm (Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Lester, etc.), and their incredible pitching depth, there is far less pressure on Buchholz. In Kansas City and Seattle, the franchises have seen better days, and the fans are looking for their system to produce someone, anyone who can signal a change in their fortunes. Even with Hughes and the Yankees, the fans want to see their system produce a bonafide ace (especially to shut up fans who complain about them simply buying pitching, as they did with Sabathia and Burnett).
But in Boston, none of this pressure applies. They have tremendous rotation depth, and a system that has churned out star players the last few years. If you ask a Sox fan, I bet they’ll mention that while they’d like to see Buchholz succeed, even if he doesn’t, it won’t be viewed as the end of the world for their franchise by any means. And when you’re 23, already have a major league no-hitter under your belt and possess a great fastball, along with an elite changeup and curveball, that’s a good spot to be in. Good things should come to those who wait in Beantown.
Of course, there are far more examples around the league, and I’m sure I’ll revisit this topic as the season goes on. The Pirates pitching staff, if they continue their current run, warrant a post all their own. Jobamania, while running strong, certainly set expectations sky high, and the issue of whether he should be in the rotation or the bullpen is one of the biggest ongoing debates in sports bars across New York.
At the end of the day, let’s remember that greatness by itself is hard to come by. Debuting with greatness and maintaining that level of success? Practically impossible. A little patience goes a long way, so please take a deep breath the next time your team’s hyped future ace comes up from the minors, and doesn’t immediately meet your expectations.
To be fair, for every Zack Greinke there’s a Kris Benson. But that’s another post in itself.
Tomorrow: Brag Photo of the Week!
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Patience With Young Pitching, Part 1
Posted by: | CommentsIn 1984, Doc Gooden was called up to the Mets’ big league team, and quickly established himself as a dominant pitcher. At age 19, he led the National League in WHIP and strikeouts, a remarkable feat. He followed this at age 20 with a 1985 season that is almost too stunning to believe: a 24-4 record, sixteen complete games, 276.2 innings pitched, 268 strikeouts, with a 1.53 ERA, and a 0.965 WHIP. Wow.
Doc would continue to be a very good pitcher, but age 20 was the peak of his career. He actually had 16 years in the majors, with his potential for greatness admittedly stifled by drug use.
And while his story serves as an example of what bad decisions can do to a career, they also lay out a bit of a blueprint as it relates to young pitchers in general:
1. Pitchers like Doc Gooden who come up at a young age and dominate out the gate are an absolute exception.
2. Even if they can accomplish this from the very start of their careers, sustained, consistent dominance at this level is incredibly rare. Even Doc couldn’t do it.
Which brings us to Phil Hughes. Long touted as the gem of the Yankees farm system, the fact that Brian Cashman never moved Hughes for an established veteran (despite many opportunities to do so) signaled a change in the philosophy of the organization, perhaps more than any other single example. And Hughes kept rolling along, dominating at every level he pitched. Sub 2.00 ERAs were the norm for him in A ball, and at AA, he continued to blow away the competition with a a 2.25 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 116 innings. All at the age of 20. The expectations of Yankees fans went sky high, as they looked forward to the day that this kid would bring that talent to the Bronx and continue his domination.
That moment came 2007 at age 21, and he had a 4.46 ERA in 72.2 innings. Those who expected Hughes to come out and produce the same results from the start (especially considering the hype) were highly disappointed. Of course, the numbers he put up in his first season were more than adequate for a player of his age in the AL East, but most Yankees fans couldn’t help but feel a bit let down.
Regardless, expectations were high in 2008, when the Yankees trusted Hughes and Ian Kennedy with spots in the rotation. The results just weren’t there, and Hughes was sent back down to the minors before April was over. Once the prized jewel of the Yankees system, Hughes garnered far less attention after “failing” in his rotation spot. It took until September for Hughes to come back up to the Yankees, where he finally showed more ability, including a great game against the Blue Jays where he went eight innings, giving up only two runs.
And yesterday, after Wang’s horrible start to the season provided an opportunity, Hughes came up and pitched six scoreless innings. To many fans, it probably seems like he’s “finally” reaching his potential. At age 23.
The moral of the story here is that no matter how highly touted a prospect is, patience is a virtue. Especially with a pitcher. Hardly anyone has the ability to come up and replicate their minor league success from day one, much less sustain it. As fans, it helps for us to keep this in mind, especially when the hype is so huge. Hughes’ story is still far from over of course, but if he does falter again, it’ll help to remember history.
In Part 2, we’ll look at other young pitchers in similar situations as Hughes: high expectations, coupled with signs of success and some faltering. Joba Chamberlain, Hughes’ counterpart in Yankee pitching prospect hype, definitely fits into this category. So do “King” Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, and no-hitter-turned 6.75 ERA and demotion in Clay Buchholz.
What other current pitchers fit this mold of “Incredible young talent who didn’t meet expectations out the gate, but will get there?” Post a suggestion in the comments section, and I may include your choice in Part 2.
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The Bandbox Steinbrenner Built
Posted by: | CommentsTo be honest right out the gate, the title of this post isn’t terribly fair. The new Yankee Stadium was built to have dimensions identical to the old stadium, so we can’t blame Steinbrenner for what’s been going on there thus far. That being said, let’s have some fun at their expense.
For those who are unaware, there’s been a lot of talk since the new stadium opened in the Bronx that home run balls are flying over the fences at an alarming rate. Given my thoughts on the Yankees and their traditional neglect of pitching, or any other aspect of baseball removed from slugging, I can’t help but find this to be sweet, poetic justice. The House That Ruth built gives way to The House That Steinbrenner Built, and appropriately enough, the fan base that loves to watch home runs now gets to see plenty of them. Too many. And this time, it’s to the detriment of the team.
One of the many wonderful things about baseball is that each park is different, with its own characteristics and variations on strategy. For example, center field in Minute Maid Park where the Houston Astros play features a somewhat ridiculous slanted hill. Here in San Diego where Upper Deck is located, the hometown Padres play at Petco: a wonderful stadium with large dimensions located right next to the thick, harbor air, creating an environment that supresses home runs like none other. And of course there’s the legendary Coors Field, where the thin mountain air made home runs too common, while pitchers struggled to make their breaking balls, well, break. It got so bad that management now stores game balls in a giant humidor, in an effort to regulate the environment and play something that less resembles video game baseball.
Which brings us to the new Yankee Stadium. Now, granted, April hasn’t even ended yet, so it’s a bit quick to make assumptions. But looking at some of the quotes from articles written on the subject, it’s hard to not be alarmed. For example, take a look at Buster Olney’s ESPN column, linked above: “With the way the wind has been the last couple of days, right field is a joke,” one official said. “I would say at least three or four home runs in this series would be routine outs in nearly every park.”
So why does this even matter? After all, the Yankees have built their legacy on home runs, so if anything, isn’t this appropriate to their history? On a superficial level, sure. But at the end of the day, the player who matters the most in baseball is the guy standing on the mound, with the ball in his hand. Pitching wins games, and when you play in a bandbox, your pitching is hurt in the process. If you take a look at the Rockies and Rangers, their historic difficulties as franchises can be directly attributed to the pitching woes created by their stadiums. And yes, we can blame their management for poor decisions when it comes to scouting and signing, but fostering an environment that actively punishes pitchers is not a very good strategic decision.
Here’s the thing: if your pitchers need to compete in a bandbox half the time, they’re going to get shelled more than your average team that gets to play half its games in a neutral, or pitching friendly stadium. As a result, your starters get knocked out of games earlier, which means your bullpen needs to come in sooner, and everyone gets fairly exhausted (not to mention demoralized) in short order. And let’s not forget about the kids either: what happens when a prospect like Phil Hughes comes up, and routine popups clear the fences? It’ll shatter their confidence, and suddenly they’ll change their approach to try and avoid those situations (not to mention praying and hoping their start comes on the road, and not at home).
The good news is that not all hope is lost. Unlike the Rangers and Rockies, the Yankees have the resources to lure free agent pitchers, regardless of their environment. And the Phillies play in a bandbox themselves, but it didn’t prevent them from winning a World Series last year. The team can take strategic measures to take advantage of this environment (especially the short porch in right), such as signing quality lefty starters and relievers, strikeout and groundball specialists, and avoiding fly ball pitchers at all costs. Lefty hitters with a history of warning track power suddenly become an asset in pinstripes. And given that fly balls are clearing the fences more often than usual, you can probably sacrifice a bit of defense at the outfield corners. After all, if the ball doesn’t stay in play, you can’t catch it.
Still, this is going to be an albatross the Yankees will have to deal with forever, unless there’s some reconstruction magic they can do in the winter. It’s incredibly difficult to cultivate pitching strength in an environment like this, which I suppose is more appropriate for the Yankees than any other team. The legendary, storied franchise that has only retired the numbers of two pitchers now has a stadium to match that philosophy. Sluggers like A-Rod will be thrilled, and fans will pay money to marvel at how many balls go home as souvenirs. And pitchers in pinstripes will be eternally frustrated, but they should know better: it’s not like they’ve ever been a focus in the Bronx anyway. How appropriate.
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NFL 2009 Draft Results: Not Too Shabby
Posted by: | CommentsOkay, so maybe my personal Top 10 Draft Picks list from Friday afternoon came up a little short. But you have to admit I was right on the money with three of my Top 10 picks (No. 1 Matt Stafford, No. 2 Jason Smith and No. 9 B.J. Raji) and I did include seven of the actual Top 10 picks in my overall assessment. So maybe I’m not ready to unseat Peter King just yet, but you can’t completely rain on my gridiron parade.
In looking at how this year’s Top 10 list played out, I was even right with regard to the peculiar moves made by the Oakland Raiders brain trust – I just had a running back instead of a wide receiver, that’s all. Instead of my pick – rusher Chris “Beanie” Wells out of Ohio State – the dreaded silver-and-black went with wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey from Maryland. People might have thought my Beanie Wells pick was a little unorthodox, given that the Raiders took Darren McFadden with their top pick last year, but nobody in their right mind could have guessed that Al Davis and company were going to grab Heyward-Bey!
My other four picks that did wind up going in the real Top 10 breakdown were Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez and Michael Crabtree. None of these guys were a stretch, but you never know what’s going to transpire on NFL Draft Day.
So which team came out as the big winner – and which club(s) came out scratching their heads? Since the Lions had nowhere to go but up, you can say they scored big (and spent big: $78 million, $41 million guaranteed) with Matt Stafford at QB. But I personally see Mark Sanchez making even more of an impact early on in the Big Apple with his selection at No. 5 by the J-E-T-S Jets. Maybe I just like the Jets receiving corps a little more than that of the Lions, but Stafford’s progress will be slow and routine. Plus, Sanchez will immediately be filling a Hall of-Famer’s shoes, whereas Stafford will be stepping in where Daunte Culpepper left off. Like I said – nowhere to go but up. As for head scratchers, you can’t help but wonder about the mindset of both the Raiders and Cowboys. The two pivotal franchises just didn’t seem to do themselves any big favors this year.
Here at Upper Deck, we’ve got something very cool lined up with this year’s top NFL Draft picks. We are currently soliciting football fans and card collectors to send in their submissions for special inscriptions to be scrawled on upcoming Upper Deck football card releases by some of this year’s participating players at the NFL Rookie Premiere Photo Shoot on May 16.
I was at last year’s event and got to interview all 32 of the participating players. In fact, with the exception of No. 2 overall pick Chris Long, each of the big-name guys were there (Jake Long, Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, etc.), so we expect a similar high-profile turnout at this year’s event. It’s mostly just position players (QBs, WRs and RBs) who get invited, but the occasional lineman does show up and usually winds up adding some solid comic relief to the event. Last year it was defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey out of LSU, all 320 pounds of him! Check out this link if you’re interested in submitting some inscriptions for consideration. But hurry: the date to submit your entries is Monday, May 4!
Card images are previews from 2009 Draft Edition Football, releasing on May 9th.
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Upper Deck’s NFL Draft Preview
Posted by: | CommentsEvery year in April, the football Gods turn to New York City to determine the fates of countless NFL fans, teams, GMs and team owners. Sighs of relief are countered with exuberant bursts of appreciation, only to be followed by chatterbox debates on why some of the picks were utterly ridiculous while others bordered on sheer genius.
We can recall some of the greatest busts of all: 1989’s Tony Mandarich (OL) and three lame-duck QBs named Rick Mirer (’93), Ryan Leaf (’98) and Tim Couch (’99) quickly come to mind. But what about the diamonds in the gridiron rough who emerged as not only star players, but team leaders who resurrected entire franchises? Guys Like Joe Montana, selected by the 49ers in the third round of the 1979 NFL Draft only after 81 other players were chosen; and Tom Brady, who went to the Patriots in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft – with the 199th pick overall!
This weekend, at the famed Radio City Music Hall, NFL geniuses will be born and stooges revealed with some of their draft strategies. As crucial draft picks are made – some will be booed, others celebrated – the near-future fates of 32 different NFL teams will hang in the balance.
Without further ado, here’s how this football fanatic sees Saturday’s Top 10 Draft Pick list playing out:
No. 1 (LIONS): Matt Stafford (QB, Georgia) – You can’t help but agree with everybody else on this one. Detroit is awful and needs help everywhere, including in the concession stands at Ford Field. After all, with an automaker as your corporate sponsor in 2009, things can’t be good. After an NFL-worst 0-16 campaign, which included five God-awful starts by Daunte “No Fire Left” Culpepper (six INTs and 14 sacks), the franchise has nowhere to go but up. So to select Stafford, the best passer in this year’s Draft after throwing for 25 TDs last season, is no stretch for a team looking to aim high – or at least above sea level.
No. 2 (RAMS): Jason Smith (OT, Baylor) – The 2-14 Rams finished last season by losing 10 straight games. A big problem was discovered on the front line: QB Marc Bulger was sacked 38 times! H-E-L-L-O! Smith should help curtail some of the beatings that could be bestowed upon Bulger (and Kyle Boller) in 2009. At 6-5 and 309 pounds, Smith should prove to be an immovable object…but then again that’s what everybody thought about Mandarich! Regardless, I see the Rams filling a desperate need with Smith on the offensive line.
No. 3 (CHIEFS): Aaron Curry (OLB, Wake Forest) – The Kansas City Chiefs are making plenty of moves, having picked up both Matt Cassel (QB) and Mike Vrabel (LB) from the Patriots this off-season, but also dealing perennial All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons. They can see Curry coming in to solidify the linebacking corps, much like Derrick Thomas did in the early ‘90s. The 250-pound Curry hits like a Mack truck and has good speed for a big man (4.5 in the 40). The Chiefs will get healthier with Curry on board.
No. 4 (SEAHAWKS): Mark Sanchez (QB, USC) – Whether or not you like Pete Carroll and the USC program, you have to like Sanchez’s fighting spirit. Here’s a kid whose stock keeps rising and who fills a very-soon-to-be-filled need in the Emerald City. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t getting any younger or any more mobile, so Sanchez will help rejuvenate the ‘Hawks passing game. He completed 41 TD passes in just 27 games for the Trojans. Besides, new wideout TJ Houshmandzadeh is going to need someone to lead him.
No. 5 (BROWNS): Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU) – Every year the prognosticators say the Browns are on their way back to competitive-ville. And every year, we see the Browns start to tank and fall into the abyss. I think 2009 will hold more of the same for Cleveland, but it won’t be because of Jackson. Here’s a ferocious pass rusher (6-4, 296 pounds) out of LSU who will strike in opposing lineman as well as QBs.
No. 6 (BENGALS): Michael Crabtree (WR, Texas Tech) – The Bengals are another AFC North team who come out of training camp with big expectations and then promptly nose-dive by Week 4. With Ocho Cinco never happy and TJ “Who’s Your Momma” off to the Seahawks, the Bengals will land Crabtree with sixth overall pick. Carson Palmer needs a sturdy, dependable wideout who will not be afraid to take a hit over the middle. Crabtree will be his main man in 2009.
No. 7 (RAIDERS): Chris Wells (RB, Ohio State) – Nobody sees this coming, and there might very well be a good reason for it. After all, they just picked up RB Darren McFadden a year ago. But McFadden never really established himself as a bruising, punishing rusher and Wells can help solidly the Raiders’ backfield woes. Granted they have plenty of woes, but if last year is any indication, the running back position is by no means locked down in Oaktown.
No. 8 (JAGUARS): Andre Smith (OT, Alabama) – The Jags just locked up wide receiver Tory Holt and now they need to concentrate on a player who can help protect QB David Garrard with enough time to find Holt down the field. Smith is a W-I-D-E guy (6-4, 332 pounds) who should more than hold his own while protecting the flatfooted Garrard. The Jaguars are a team best known for their swarming defense; now it’s time for Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew to get their just desserts. Smith will help them get the recognition they deserve.
No. 9 (PACKERS): B.J. Raji (DT, Boston College) – Aaron Rogers is still trying to establish himself as Brett Favre’s heir apparent. And my guess is that he’ll get there this year. That’s why the Pack has to go back to finding its identity on the defensive side of the ball. Raji will help shore up an aging defensive line. Last season, his team-high eight sacks and 16 stops behind the line of scrimmage for the Eagles made him a tough guy to miss. In fact, his eight sacks made him the first DT since 1985 to lead BC in that department.
No. 10 (49ers): Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee) – Ever since Steve Young’s retirement 10 years ago, the 49ers have been a team in transition. Allowing opponents to ring up double-digit victories week after week has only helped to dismantle a once-proud organization. That’s why this weekend San Fran will address an obvious void at defensive end. Ayers is a big boy (6-3, 272 pounds) who should provide the kind of pass rush the Niners desperately need.
Card images are previews from 2009 Draft Edition Football, releasing on May 9th.
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